结构上，23 年末贷款占总资产比重49.4%，较22A/23Q3 末分别回落1.4PCT/1.8PCT。资产规模高增且结构有所调整，一方面是由于22Q4公司大幅压降现金及存放央行款项，且受宏观因素扰动，信贷22Q4 单季度负增，资产规模基数偏低；另一方面，23Q4 公司总资产增量约268亿元，其中贷款仅25.4 亿元，非信贷资产显著增长，考虑到23Q4 政府债发行放量，预计年末增配了一部分利率债。负债端，2023 年总负债和存款总额同比分别增长15.2%、13.1%，增速较22 年分别上升14.4PCT、4.2PCT；存款总额占总负债比重68%，环比回落2PCT，负债端同比高增同样为22Q4 公司大幅压降向央行借款形成的低基数所致。Core views:
The Bank of Qingdao disclosed its 2023 annual results report. Due to the low 22Q4 base, the growth rate rebounded 5.3PCT; net profit to the mother increased 15.1% year on year, falling 0.1 PCT from 23Q1 to 3; 23Q4 revenue and net profit to mother increased 30.8% and 14.8% year on year respectively, and the growth rate rebounded 30.3 PCT and 1.5PCT respectively from 23Q3. Thanks to the low base of 22Q4, profit growth rebounded markedly in 23Q4. In terms of profit drivers, the scale of non-credit assets expanded significantly in 23Q4. Investment income from the 23Q4 bond market is expected to make a certain positive contribution to revenue; at the same time, provision coverage declined sequentially at the end of the year, and provision is expected to feed back profits strongly.
The negative scale of capital increased year-on-year due to the base effect. On the asset side, total assets and total loans increased by 14.8% and 11.5% year-on-year respectively in 2023, and the growth rates increased by 13.4 PCT and 1.4 PCT respectively from '22.
Structurally, loans at the end of '23 accounted for 49.4% of total assets, down 1.4PCT/1.8PCT from the end of 22A/23Q3, respectively. The asset scale has increased rapidly and the structure has been adjusted. On the one hand, due to the sharp drop in cash and central bank funds, 22Q4 credit increased negatively in a single quarter and the asset size base was low; on the other hand, 23Q4's total assets increased by about 26.8 billion yuan, of which loans were only 2.54 billion yuan, and non-credit assets increased significantly. Considering the volume of 23Q4 government bonds issued, it is expected that some interest rate bonds will be increased at the end of the year. On the debt side, total debt and total deposits increased 15.2% and 13.1% year-on-year respectively in 2023, and the growth rates increased by 14.4PCT and 4.2PCT, respectively; total deposits accounted for 68% of total debt, falling 2PCT month-on-month. The year-on-year increase on the debt side was also due to the low base formed by 22Q4 companies' sharp drop in borrowing from the central bank.
Asset quality is relatively stable. The company's non-performing loan ratio in 2023 was 1.18%, changing -3 bp/+4bp from 22A/23q1-3, respectively; the 2023 provision coverage rate was 225.96%, changing 6.19 pct/-28.71 pct from 22A/23q1-3, respectively, but it was still high. The 23Q4 loan provision balance for a single quarter decreased by 62.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.16 billion yuan, providing effective support for performance growth while asset quality is stable and risk offsetting capacity remains solid.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's net profit growth rate for 24/25 is expected to be 14.1%/11.8%, EPS is 0.67/0.76 yuan/share, BVPS is 6.08/6.68 yuan/share. The current stock price is 4.8X/4.2X for 24/25 PE, and 0.5X/0.5X for 24/25 PB. As a leading regional corporate bank, the company is based on the characteristics of “interface banking”, “blue finance”, and “wealth management”. It has contributed greatly to non-interest income, stable asset quality, and strong capital and provisions, keeping the reasonable value of A-shares unchanged at 4.92 yuan/share, corresponding to a 24-year PB valuation of about 0.81X. According to the current AH premium ratio, the reasonable value of H shares is 2.99 HKD/share, all of which have been given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: (1) economic growth has declined beyond expectations; (2) rising deposit costs have exceeded expectations; (3) international economic and financial risks have exceeded expectations; (4) policy regulation has exceeded expectations.
