2）预计2023Q4：归母净利润0.79~1.14 亿元，环比-4.37%~+37.89%，同比+424%~+656%；扣非归母净利润0.71~1.06 亿元，环比-14.38%~+27.96%，同比+342%~+561%。Matters:
The company released the 2023 performance forecast:
1) Expected 2023: Net profit attributable to mother is 275-310 million yuan, up 110.07% to 136.81% year on year; net profit without return to mother is 2.62 to 297 million yuan, up 122.90% to 152.74% year on year.
2) Expected 2023Q4: Net profit attributable to mother of 0.79 to 114 million yuan, -4.37% ~ +37.89%, YoY +424% ~ +656%; net profit without return to mother 0.71 to 106 million yuan, -14.38% ~ +27.96% YoY, +342% ~ +561% YoY.
Commentary:
23Q4 performance exceeded expectations, and the “cloud-edge-end” strategy progressed steadily. The median net profit of the company in 23Q4 was 97 million yuan, up 16.76% month-on-month, and achieved month-on-month growth for four consecutive seasons. The company focuses on the main product line of “cloud-edge-end” smart storage and smart IoT, and continues to launch competitive products and upgrade business models to provide cloud platform services; continuously increase R&D investment to enhance innovation capabilities and core technical strength; continuously optimize supply chain management to reduce raw material costs; and continue to strengthen intelligent manufacturing and unmanned factory construction to reduce manufacturing costs. At the same time, the company is promoting the layout of the server industry chain, and profitability is steady.
Overseas smart security continues to make breakthroughs, and new cloud platforms/self-developed products are gradually being launched. The company continues to build a full-link open technology system around customer service, comprehensively expand overseas business, and provide one-stop smart IoT services and solutions for the digital transformation of enterprises and households, focusing on developing markets such as the US, Southeast Asia, Europe, etc., and the share of overseas revenue continues to increase; the company's cloud video platform business customer base is growing. It is expected to gradually start at 23Q4, and performance will grow rapidly, driving the company's overall gross margin to continue to increase and profitability; High gross profit independent research and development of new health products continues to contribute to the increase in performance.
The basic storage market is recovering, and the platform-based layout is expected to usher in a harvest period. The storage industry's 2024 is an upward cycle of boom recovery, and price flexibility is expected to be strong. According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's research, the 24Q1 DRAM/NAND Flash contract price is expected to rise by about 13-18% /18-23% in the quarter; driven by medium- to long-term innovation, the AI PC wave will drive a sharp rise in SSD/DDR volume and price in the future, and the company is expected to benefit deeply; In the long term, the company has firmly implemented a platform-based development strategy. Through continuous investment in software and hardware integration, the company's main control chip/ The self-supply rate of sealed testing continues to increase, industrial regulations/enterprise-level storage is expanded, profit margin levels are expected to continue to rise, and the business model is significantly optimized.
Investment suggestion: Since 2023H2, the global storage/consumer electronics market has seen a recovery. The company has significantly benefited from the increase in demand for SSD and IoT smart terminals, while fully grasping domestic opportunities. According to our forecast, the company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 46.0/59.4/7.30 billion yuan, and net profit to the mother is 2.93/5.05/648 million yuan (original value was 3.00/5.05/648 million yuan). The corresponding EPS was 1.20/2.07/2.66 yuan (original value was 1.23/2.07/2.66 yuan). For reference, comparable companies each gave the storage business/IoT smart terminal business 65/20x PE in 2024, corresponding to a target price of 78.7 yuan, maintaining a “strong promotion” rating.
Risk warning: Technological innovation falls short of expectations, global business risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, cloud service business development falls short of expectations, new business scope uncertainties
