S&P 500, Dow Extend All-Time Highs: 'It's A Lot Of Fun For Stock Investors While It Lasts,' Wall Street Veteran Says
S&P 500, Dow Extend All-Time Highs: 'It's A Lot Of Fun For Stock Investors While It Lasts,' Wall Street Veteran Says
The S&P 500 index continued its upward momentum Monday, building on the record high levels it reached Friday. Concurrently, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 extended their own all-time highs. The Dow hit the milestone of 38,000, a record for the blue-chip index.
标准普尔500指数周一继续保持上涨势头，在周五创下的历史新高基础上再接再厉。同时，道琼斯工业平均指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数均创下历史新高。道琼斯指数触及38,000的里程碑，创下蓝筹股指数的纪录。
Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni is trying to temper the growing excitement in the markets.
华尔街资深人士埃德·亚尔德尼正试图缓和市场日益增长的兴奋。
In his most recent post, published on Sunday, Yardeni outlines three potential historical precedents for the economy, the Federal Reserve and the stock market's future performance.
亚尔德尼在周日发表的最新文章中概述了经济、美联储和股市未来表现的三个潜在历史先例。
The first scenario, for which Yardeni assigns a 60% probability, is a "Roaring 2020s" outlook. This envisions subdued inflation and expanding profit margins for companies, ultimately leading to gains in the stock market.
第一种情景是 “飙升的2020年代” 展望，亚尔德尼认为概率为60％。这预示着通货膨胀将抑制并扩大公司的利润率，最终导致股市上涨。
The second scenario, with a 20% probability, resembles the 1970s. In this scenario, there are risks of a second inflationary energy shock, reminiscent of the 1970s, which prompts the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates once again, resulting in poor stock performance.
第二种情景的概率为20％，类似于1970年代。在这种情况下，存在第二次通货膨胀能源冲击的风险，让人想起1970年代，这促使美联储再次提高利率，导致股票表现不佳。
The third scenario draws parallels with the 1990s-style melt-up and carries a 20% probability. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve becomes concerned about inflation falling below 2% and responds by aggressively cutting interest rates, even as the economy continues to perform well. This prompts a stock market melt-up, with technology stocks leading the way.
第三种情景与20世纪90年代的崩溃相似，概率为20％。在这种情况下，美联储开始担心通货膨胀率降至2％以下，尽管经济继续表现良好，但仍会积极降息。这促使股市崩溃，科技股领涨。
"Irrational exuberance would make a comeback in this scenario. It's a lot of fun for stock investors while it lasts," Yardeni said.
“在这种情况下，非理性的繁荣将卷土重来。在持续的同时，这对股票投资者来说非常有趣，” 亚尔德尼说。
He cautions that this scenario could lead to a valuation bubble bursting if the Fed is forced to raise interest rates due to signs of asset inflation transitioning into price inflation.
他警告说，如果美联储因资产通胀过渡到价格通胀的迹象而被迫提高利率，这种情况可能会导致估值泡沫破裂。
S&P 500 Highlights Monday
标准普尔500指数周一亮点
- The S&P 500 closed at 4,850 points Monday, up 0.2%, marking its third straight positive session.
- The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed at $483.52, up 2.4% since the start of the year.
- Monday's session saw eight out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ending in positive territory.
- The top performing sector was the Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLI), up 0.75%
- The laggards were the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU) and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP), both down 0.5%.
- Top performing stocks: V.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC), up 5.03%; Synopsys Inc. (NASDAQ:SNPS), up 4.8%; and Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB), up 4.9%,
- Worst performing stocks: Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE:ADM), down 24.2%; Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD), down 10.1%; and Bunge Limited (NYSE:GB), down 4.4%
- 标普500指数周一收于4,850点，上涨0.2％，这是连续第三个交易日上涨。
- SPDR标准普尔500指数ETF信托（纽约证券交易所代码：SPY）收于483.52美元，自年初以来上涨2.4％。
- 周一的交易日中，标普500指数的11个板块中有8个板块收于正值区间。
- 表现最好的板块是工业精选板块SPDR基金（纽约证券交易所代码：XLI），上涨0.75％
- 落后的是公用事业精选板块SPDR基金（纽约证券交易所代码：XLU）和必需消费品精选板块SPDR基金（纽约证券交易所代码：XLP），均下跌0.5％。
- 表现最佳的股票：V.F.（纽约证券交易所代码：VFC），上涨5.03％；新思科技公司（纳斯达克股票代码：SNPS），上涨4.8％；雅宝公司（纽约证券交易所代码：ALB），上涨4.9％，
- 表现最差的股票：阿彻-丹尼尔斯-米德兰公司（纽约证券交易所代码：ADM），下跌24.2％；吉利德科学公司（纳斯达克股票代码：GILD），下跌10.1％；邦吉有限公司（纽约证券交易所代码：GB），下跌4.4％
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立即阅读： 美国股市创历史新高：估值过高还是仍是超值买入？
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译文内容由第三方软件翻译。