Introduction to this report:
23Q4 performance is in line with expectations; the platform-based layout is improving, and market competitiveness continues to improve; increase production capacity construction, and actively plan the industrial layout.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the shareholding increase rating: Referring to the company's 23-year performance forecast, net profit due to mother for 23-25 was reduced to $736/10.07/1,290 million yuan (previous value of 7.57/10.50/$1,328 billion), and the 23-25 EPS was lowered to 4.63/6.33/8.11 yuan (previous value of 4.76/6.61/8.36 yuan). Refer to the average PE value of the comparable company in 2024. As a precautionary measure, the company was given 37.6 times PE in 2024, keeping the target price unchanged at 238 yuan.
23Q4 results are in line with expectations. The company's projected revenue for 23 to 27 billion yuan (median value of 2.5 billion yuan), YoY 39.5%-63.8%; net profit to mother of 659-774 million yuan (median value of 717 million yuan), YoY 31.4%-54.3%; net profit not attributable to mother of 553-647 million yuan, YoY 45.54%-70.28%. In the 23Q4 alone, the company's revenue was 46-760 million yuan, YoY -10.7%-+47.6%; net profit attributable to mother was 0.95%-210 million yuan, YoY -40.3%-+32.1%; net profit not attributable to mother was 0.94-188 million yuan, YoY -17.5% -+64.9%.
The platform-based layout is becoming more and more perfect, and market competitiveness continues to improve. The company's market share of CMP equipment has been steadily increasing. The client for the all-in-one thinning and polishing machine was successfully verified, and the mass-produced Versatile-GP300 was launched. The first 12-inch single-wafer cleaning machine has been shipped to a leading domestic silicon wafer company. Liquid supply systems have been purchased in bulk. Metal film thickness equipment has been shipped in small batches. The wafer recycling business reached a monthly production capacity of 100,000 wafers. As the company's CMP holdings increase, key consumables are expected to become a new profit growth point for the company.
Increase production capacity construction and actively plan industrial layout. The company plans to build a base in the Beijing Economic Development Zone to lay out CMP, thinning equipment, wet cleaning equipment, etc. In addition, the company actively participated in setting up investment funds to find investment targets in the industrial chain, and at the same time continue to promote the cultivation of domestic parts suppliers and increase the localization rate of parts.
Risk warning: semiconductor industry cycle fluctuations, domestic substitution, and company product development falling short of expectations.