The 2023 results reversed losses, and the operation continued to improve. The company disclosed its 2023 performance forecast. In 2023, it achieved operating revenue of 1.92 billion yuan, an increase of 19%-25% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 18-230 million yuan, or 340 million yuan for the same period last year, reversing losses. The company's business recovered rapidly, and the first growth curve business developed steadily. At the same time, the company increased investment in the second growth curve business and made good progress in data elements, water conservancy, and enterprise applications. As can be seen, the company's operations continue to improve.
A comprehensive information platform construction project in Tangshan was implemented in cooperation with China Telecom. Chaotu Software disclosed the signing of an important contract. The company signed the “2023 Integrated Information Platform Software Development Contract” and supplementary contract with China Telecom Digital City Technology Co., Ltd. (“China Telecom Mathematics”). The two parties agreed on rights and obligations for the construction of the Tangshan Integrated Information Platform. The contract amount was 21.55 million yuan. China Telecom Digital Technology Co., Ltd.
The construction of a comprehensive information platform in Tangshan City is a comprehensive informatization foundation for the Big Data Bureau. The construction of a comprehensive information platform includes seven parts, including a data resource system, a basic competency platform, a central platform for capacity empowerment, and a comprehensive information platform portal.
(1) Data resource system: Through aggregation, thematic databases, basic spatio-temporal data integration libraries, and support banks are formed to meet the construction and operation requirements of a comprehensive information platform. Through the construction of a data resource service management platform, all types of data obtained can be cleaned, compared, integrated and managed in a unified manner. (2) Basic competency platforms: including spatio-temporal big data platforms. The spatio-temporal big data platform makes full use of the existing basic geographic information data, subject data and business data of various departments, continuously enriches and improves data resources, and realizes multi-source data integration and integrated sharing and management through the establishment of unified standards. (3) Capability Empowerment Hub Platform:
It includes four parts: data service capability, map service capability, public support capability, and business support capability. It is necessary to consolidate and empower data service capabilities and provide integrated map service capabilities throughout the city. (4) Comprehensive information platform portal: Build a comprehensive portal for the Tangshan Comprehensive Information Platform to gather existing and newly built common capabilities such as cloud resources, data resources, video resources, and map resources in Tangshan to achieve display, inquiry, application, approval, and call services for resources with various capabilities such as “cloud, digital, visual, communication, map, and certification”; at the same time, establish a supervision mechanism to achieve unified supervision of resources. As can be seen, the construction content of this project covers all aspects of the data industry chain, from cleaning and management to operating platforms to data applications. This project is the company's comprehensive informatization infrastructure project for prefecture-level city big data bureaus. It is the company's sample project for prefecture-level city big data bureaus. The project integrates government data with spatial data, integrates data on various government topics such as population, legal entities, and macroeconomics into spatial elements through spatio-temporal attributes. The platform is the basic support center for the construction of the digital economy. Through this project, the company has formed solutions and products for the entire business of the Big Data Bureau, laying a solid foundation and forming a model case for the development of subsequent business.
We believe that the company has carried out a comprehensive technical layout for the data element market. The Tangshan project is expected to become a benchmark project for big data in prefecture-level cities. Spatio-temporal data will fully enable data applications, and the company's second growth curve business is expected to expand rapidly.
Release remote sensing software products to create remote sensing GIS integration. In the first half of 2023, the company entered the field of remote sensing production, built remote sensing GIS integration, and officially released a remote sensing software product - cross-platform remote sensing image processing desktop software [SuperMap ImageX Pro (Beta)], which realized the whole process processing and application of remote sensing data integrated with remote sensing GIS. The cross-platform remote sensing image processing desktop software is aimed at satellite remote sensing image data, integrates internationally leading photogrammetry and remote sensing core algorithms, developed based on intelligent, automated, and high-performance computing technologies. It provides more than 60 types of remote sensing image processing operators, including generating connection points and ground control points, area network aberrations, ortho correction, image fusion, etc., and has the ability to use multi-source satellite remote sensing images to produce DOM, DSM, and DEM data products.
Actively expand strong GIS government application industries other than natural resources, and downstream applications are constantly being enriched. In the first half of 2023, Water Resources: The Ministry of Water Resources held a digital twin water conservancy construction site meeting at the Xiaolangdi Water Resources Hub. The conference released the Ministry of Water Resources's digital twin platform and the 2023 edition of the National Water Resources Map. The Ministry of Water Resources's digital twin platform, which the company participated in the construction of, collects integrated multi-source data in an orderly manner based on a national water conservancy map, which can achieve digital mapping and intelligent simulation of all elements and processes of the country's physical watersheds, and will play an important role in watershed flood control and water resource management and allocation. At the same time, the company won bids for projects such as the digital twin Three Gorges simulation engine project.
Meteorology: The company has built an integrated meteorological platform based on the SuperMap GIS technology system, and has built a service model for “meteorology+” industry applications in various fields such as transportation, electricity, agriculture, ecology, and emergency. Agriculture: The subsidiary Nanjing Guotu has formed a series of solutions in business areas such as high-standard farmland inspection, arable land quality classification monitoring, arable land restoration potential survey, arable land occupation balance, supervision, investigation and rectification of arable land issues, supplementary arable land reporting and storage, alien species surveys, soil surveys, etc., and has been receiving successful bid orders. Furthermore, the company continues to make efforts in businesses such as housing and construction, big data, smart airports, and smart parks.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. On June 5, 2023, the company released the “2023 Stock Options Incentive Plan”. The assessment targets for operating income are: 2023 revenue increased by no less than 20% compared to 2022 revenue; 2024 revenue increased by no less than 50% compared to 2022 revenue; and 2025 revenue increased by no less than 90% compared to 2022 revenue. The company's revenue for 2022 was 1,596 billion yuan, and the equity incentive targets corresponded to 23-25 billion yuan in revenue of 1.915 billion yuan, 2,394 billion yuan, and 3,032 billion yuan, respectively.
We believe that the company has developed a relatively complete business layout for the data bureau, and the Tangshan project is expected to become a benchmark project and be promoted. The downstream of the industry continues to expand, and business operations continue to improve. The company vigorously developed downstream in 2023, and the revenue side continued to improve. Driven by the data element business, the revenue growth rate is expected to continue to accelerate.
In this context, we believe that the company can achieve the equity incentive target in 23-25 years. The company's main revenue consists of GIS software, and other businesses account for a very small share of revenue.
Based on the company's equity incentive target, we expect the company's GIS software revenue growth rate to be 24%, 25%, and 27% respectively in 23-25; the company's revenue growth rate will be 24%, 25%, and 27%, respectively; assuming that the gross margin of the GIS software business returns to pre-pandemic levels, the company's GIS software gross profit margin will be 50%, 51%, and 51% in 23-25 years; the company's overall gross margin will be 50%, 51%, and 51%.
We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 1,978/24.71/3.136 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 1.97/3.10/407 million yuan, and corresponding EPS of 0.40/0.63/0.83 yuan respectively. Combined with the current industry stage and the company's growth rate and barriers, the company was given a 2024 dynamic of PE35-45 times, with a 6-month reasonable value range of 22.02-28.31 yuan. For the first time, coverage was given a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. The company's business progress falls short of expectations, and industry policy risks.