GUANGZHOU BAIYUN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600004):4Q23 PREANNOUNCEMENT SLIGHTLY BEATS; EAST 4 AND WEST 4 CORRIDORS START OPERATION
GUANGZHOU BAIYUN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600004):4Q23 PREANNOUNCEMENT SLIGHTLY BEATS; EAST 4 AND WEST 4 CORRIDORS START OPERATION
Recovery of 4Q23 operating data weakens slightly; recovery of international flights strengthens. In 4Q23, the firm's overall, domestic, and international passenger throughput recovered to 89%, 99%, and 59% of the 4Q19 levels, with the level of recovery down 3ppt, 6ppt, but up 4ppt QoQ. Recovery of demand for domestic flights slowed slightly in the slack season, while recovery of international flights continued. Passenger volume of international flights in December recovered to 61% of the 2019 level.Preannounced 2023 net profit slightly beats market expectation
預先公佈的2023年淨利潤略高於市場預期
Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport preannounced its 2023 results, estimating that its net profit attributable to shareholders reached Rmb438- 536mn in 2023 (vs. -Rmb1.07bn in 2022). The firm estimates its 4Q23 attributable net profit totaled Rmb164-261mn (vs. Rmb116mn in 3Q23 and -Rmb444mn in 4Q22). The firm's 4Q23 preannouncement slightly beat market expectations, thanks to better-than-expected cost control and/or non-aviation business revenue.
廣州白雲國際機場預先公佈了其2023年業績，估計其歸屬於股東的淨利潤在2023年達到4.38億至5.36億元人民幣（2022年爲-10.7億元人民幣）。該公司估計，其23年第四季度的應占淨利潤總額爲人民幣1.64億至2.61億元（而23年第三季度爲1.16億元人民幣，22年第四季度爲-4.44億元人民幣）。由於成本控制和/或非航空業務收入好於預期，該公司在2023年第四季度發佈的預告略高於市場預期。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Recovery of 4Q23 operating data weakens slightly; recovery of international flights strengthens. In 4Q23, the firm's overall, domestic, and international passenger throughput recovered to 89%, 99%, and 59% of the 4Q19 levels, with the level of recovery down 3ppt, 6ppt, but up 4ppt QoQ. Recovery of demand for domestic flights slowed slightly in the slack season, while recovery of international flights continued. Passenger volume of international flights in December recovered to 61% of the 2019 level.
23 年第四季度運營數據的恢復略有減弱；國際航班的復甦加強。在23年第四季度，該公司的整體、國內和國際旅客吞吐量恢復至2019年第四季度水平的89％、99％和59％，復甦水平下降了3個百分點，6個百分點，但環比上升了4個百分點。在淡季，國內航班需求的恢復略有放緩，而國際航班的復甦仍在繼續。12月國際航班的客運量恢復到2019年水平的61％。
Construction of the Phase III project continues. Terminals 1 and 2 of Baiyun Airport are now connected after East 4 and West 4 corridors were put into operation on December 31, 2023. The firm expects to complete the construction of the main building of Terminal 3 in January 2024.
第三階段項目的建設仍在繼續。在 2023 年 12 月 31 日東 4 號和西 4 號走廊投入運營後，白雲機場 1 號和 2 號航站樓現已連接。該公司預計將於2024年1月完成3號航站樓主樓的建設。
The firm announced at its 3Q23 results meeting that the legal person and investor of the Phase III project is its parent company. We suggest watching the impact of the Phase III project on the cost of the listed company.
該公司在23年第三季度業績會議上宣佈，第三階段項目的法人和投資者是其母公司。我們建議觀察第三階段項目對上市公司成本的影響。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2023 earnings forecast unchanged at Rmb453mn. We cut our 2024 earnings forecast 9% to Rmb1.20bn, as we lower our assumptions for passenger throughput growth and per-customer sales of duty-free business. We introduce our 2025 earnings forecast of Rmb1.24bn, as we expect passenger throughput of domestic and international flights in 2025 to grow 19% and 3% compared with 2019. The stock is trading at 48.8x 2023e, 18.4x 2024e and 17.8x 2025e P/E. We cut our target price 10% to Rmb12.9, implying 25x 2024e P/E (the firm's historical average), offering 38% upside. Maintain OUTPERFORM.
我們將2023年的收益預測維持在4.53億元人民幣不變。由於我們下調了對旅客吞吐量增長和免稅業務每位客戶銷售額的假設，我們將2024年的收益預期下調了9％，至12.0億元人民幣。我們公佈了2025年12.4億元人民幣的收益預測，因爲我們預計2025年國內和國際航班的旅客吞吐量將比2019年增長19％和3％。該股的交易價格爲2023年48.8倍，2024年的市盈率爲18.4倍，2025年的市盈率爲17.8倍。我們將目標價格下調了10％，至12.9元人民幣，這意味着市盈率是2024年的25倍（該公司的歷史平均水平），上漲幅度爲38％。保持跑贏大盤。
Risks
風險
Disappointing passenger demand and/or duty-free business development; higher-than-expected incremental cost from Phase III project.
旅客需求和/或免稅業務發展令人失望；第三階段項目的增量成本高於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
