The major economic data, events and company results for this week (1.22-1.26) are as follows:

Monday, January 22nd

Keywords: LPR; State Council Policy Briefing; “Online Game Management Measures (Draft for Comments)”

In terms of economic data, China's one-year and five-year LPR will be announced at 9:15 Beijing time.

On January 15, the People's Bank of China launched a 995 billion yuan medium-term loan facilitation (MLF) operation, winning the bid interest rate of 2.5%, which is the same as before. Since it was lowered from 2.65% to 2.5% in August 2023, the MLF operating interest rate has been “on hold” until now.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said that considering that MLF operating interest rates are the pricing basis for LPR quotes, and that commercial banks' net interest spreads are currently under pressure, even though commercial banks have recently initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts, taking into account various factors affecting LPR quotes, it is expected that 1-year LPR and LPR with a term of 5 years or more will remain unchanged this month.

In terms of financial events, the State Council policy briefing will be held at 10:00 Beijing time.

At 10 a.m. on January 22, Zhang Shixin, Deputy Secretary General of the National Development and Reform Commission, and relevant officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and the Ministry of Commerce will present the “Opinions on Developing the Silver Hair Economy to Improve the Welfare of the Elderly” and answer questions from reporters.

The “Measures for the Administration of Online Games (Draft for Comments)” is closed for public comment and feedback.

On December 22, 2023, the State Press and Publication Administration issued the “Administrative Measures on Online Games (Draft Draft for Comments)”. The deadline for feedback is January 22, 2024. Normally, it takes 1 to 3 months from the feedback deadline to the official publication of the draft, during which time there is also a review process for the draft submitted for review. Previously, the market reacted strongly because some of the new provisions were more strict than the previous regulations and covered a wider range of regulations. CITIC Securities pointed out that the goal of the draft management measures is to guarantee and promote the prosperous and healthy development of the industry. It is recommended to focus on their ultimate implementation and view their impact rationally.

Tuesday, January 23

Keywords：Bank of Japan interest rate decision; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo; Netflix

In terms of economic data, the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions.

In December, the Bank of Japan continued to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy, maintaining the upper limit of the long-term interest rate control target at 1% and short-term interest rates at negative 0.1%. Economists surveyed by the media unanimously predicted that the Bank of Japan will continue to maintain negative interest rates in January, and the authorities are still evaluating the impact of the earthquake in Japan's Noto region.

Currently, most analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in April this year, ending the negative interest rate policy for many years. A former Bank of Japan director said earlier that the results of Japan's spring labor negotiations are expected to raise wages by 4%. “A virtuous cycle between wages and inflation has formed,” paving the way for ending negative interest rate policies in spring.

In terms of financial events, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is very concerned about the virtuous cycle between wages and prices. He once said, “If the possibility of continuing to meet the 2% inflation target “continues to rise,” the Bank of Japan will consider withdrawing from the negative interest rate policy.”

In terms of company performance,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$The fourth quarter earnings report will be announced after the US stock market on January 23, EST (January 24, Beijing time).

The market generally predicts that Netflix Q4 achieved revenue of 8.710 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.93% year on year; earnings per share were 2.22 US dollars, a sharp increase of 1751.92% year over year.

Regarding this financial report, the market is generally concerned about Netflix's performance in the increasingly competitive streaming market. In particular, investors expect Netflix to continue to show strong momentum in key indicators such as content investment, user growth, international expansion, and profitability.

Prior to the results, a number of investment banks raised their target price for Netflix. Among them, the target price reached as high as 600 US dollars, and there is still room for 25% increase from the current price.

Wednesday January 24

Keywords：Bank of Canada interest rate decision; US Markit Preliminary Manufacturing/Services PMI; Tesla; New Oriental; Oriental Selection; 17th Asian Financial Forum

In terms of economic data, the Bank of Canada will announce the interest rate decision.

In December, the Bank of Canada announced for the third time in a row that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the current level of 5% and continue to maintain a tight monetary policy. The Bank of Canada said that the economic slowdown is reducing inflationary pressure on the prices of various goods and services, but it is still concerned about the risk of inflation and is preparing to further raise interest rates if necessary.

The initial value of the US Markit manufacturing industry for January and the preliminary value of the Markit service industry PMI for January will be announced at 22:45 Beijing time.

The December Markit service sector and comprehensive PMI announced on January 4 both hit new highs since July last year. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence, said, “The PMI data brought some cheers to the new year, showing that America's huge service sector economic growth accelerated, and output in December recorded the biggest increase in five months. This improvement has offset the slump in manufacturing and indicates that the overall growth rate of the US economy may have accelerated slightly by the end of last year.”

In terms of financial events, the 17th Asian Financial Forum will be held in Hong Kong on January 24-25, 2024.

According to China News Network, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Li Jiachao, said during a meeting with reporters before attending the meeting that the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council will host the 17th Asian Financial Forum from January 24 to 25. It is expected that more than 3,000 financial and business elites from all over the world will participate, including finance officials from various countries, representatives of central banks and regulators, and business leaders. Currently, nearly 70 mainland and overseas trade groups have confirmed their participation, including Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, the Middle East, Australia, Europe and the US.

With the theme of “A New Chapter in Multilateral Cooperation”, the forum cooperated with national initiatives to promote global development, mutual benefit and win-win situation, promote cooperation among all parties, explore sustainable economic development models, and jointly explore opportunities for multilateral cooperation. It is reported that the two-day forum will discuss a number of hot topics that the global financial community is concerned about, such as China's opportunities, investment prospects, green finance, fintech, family office ecology, RMB internationalization, and the development of the Greater Bay Area.

In terms of company performance,$NEW ORIENTAL-S (09901.HK)$,$EAST BUY (01797.HK)$Hong Kong stock results will be announced after the market on January 24, Beijing time.

Oriental Selection recently revealed Dong Yuhui's earnings information that the outside world is concerned about. We learned from people familiar with the matter that Oriental Selection Holdings Co., Ltd. recently held an extraordinary shareholders' meeting to discuss core issues such as its “Walk with Hui” live broadcast room, the sharing of interests of core anchors, and future strategies. Regarding the revenue sharing situation that the outside world is concerned about, the person familiar with the matter told the reporter that at the shareholders' meeting, Oriental Selection Management stated that “Walk with Hui” is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dongfang Selection, which guarantees that Oriental will select 100% of the shares. The company and Dong Yuhui will not take commissions like traditional MCN agencies (influencer live streaming companies); more, they will bind long-term interests to the company through equity.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The fourth quarter results will be announced after the market on January 24, EST (January 25, Beijing time).

According to consistent market expectations, Tesla is expected to record revenue of 25.764 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter, up 5.95% year on year; earnings per share are 0.62 US dollars, down 42.11% year on year.

Looking ahead to Q4 results, the market believes that Tesla raised the prices of cars sold in China four times in a row in November last year, mainly due to downward pressure on profits. Another reason was the decline in sales rankings in China, which was affected by competition brought about by price cuts in other new energy vehicles. The price increase behavior may use the fans' mentality of “buy up, not buy down” to promote sales growth.

Thursday January 25th

Keywords：US GDP; unemployment benefits; ECB announces interest rate decision; Intel

In terms of economic data, the preliminary value of the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate for the fourth quarter and the number of US jobless claims at the beginning of last week will be announced at 21:30 Beijing time.

The third-quarter GDP data released at the end of December exceeded expectations and was revised down to 4.9%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. According to Bloomberg's forecast, the US GDP data for the fourth quarter may show a slowdown in economic growth. It is expected to be around 2%, and the annual GDP will be around 2.7%, and inflationary pressure will become “less obvious.”

In terms of financial events, the ECB will hold an interest rate resolution meeting. After the meeting, ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference.

The ECB will hold an interest rate meeting this week. Market pricing indicates that the ECB will choose to remain on hold; the focus is still on ECB President Lagarde's statement at the press conference. Bloomberg predicts that the ECB is most likely to cut interest rates in June.

Although interest rate futures think the possibility of cutting interest rates in April is 85%, since the new year, many ECB officials have recently tried to suppress speculations about impending interest rate cuts. Last week, Lagarde reiterated the policy approach of relying on data, and mentioned expectations for interest rate cuts this summer. “I'd say it's likely, but reservations must be made, because based on the data, there is still a degree of uncertainty, and some metrics aren't fixed at the level we'd like to see.”

In terms of company performance,$Intel (INTC.US)$The fourth quarter results will be announced after the market on January 25, EST (January 26, Beijing time).

Earlier, Intel's Q3 earnings report showed that revenue, profit, and fourth-quarter guidance all exceeded expectations. The adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were estimated at $0.44 billion, with a revenue range of 14.6 billion to 15.6 billion US dollars, all higher than market expectations of $0.32 billion per share and revenue of US$14.31 billion.

At CES 2024, Intel announced that it will launch automotive artificial intelligence chips based on AI PC technology to compete directly with Qualcomm and Nvidia. It is expected that the first batch of chips will be launched by the end of this year.

Friday January 26th

Keywords：US core PCE price index

In terms of economic data, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for December will be announced at 21:30 Beijing time.

PCE in December last year was the biggest focus of the week. As the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, the core PCE fell to 3.2% in November last year, the lowest level since April 2021. The agency expects the latest PCE to slow further to 2.9%, falling back beyond expectations or re-boosting the prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates in March.

However, some Federal Reserve officials are cautious in their recent statements, believing that it is too early to discuss easing, and that a premature shift may bring back previous anti-inflation efforts.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

edit/lambor