On the evening of January 16, the company released a performance forecast. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be about 144 million yuan to 159 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 90% to 110% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss is about 120 million yuan to 133 million yuan, an increase of 80% to 100% over the previous year.
Fourth quarter results increased significantly. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to be about 48 million yuan to 63 million yuan, up 495.0% to 683.8% year on year, and 90.4% to 150.8% month on month; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss is about 36 million yuan to 0.49 million yuan, up 802.5% to 1135.0% year on year, up 44.4% to 97.6% month on month.
The sharp increase in the company's performance in 2023 is mainly due to: (1) EGR system technology can now enable the light, medium and heavy diesel vehicles, natural gas heavy trucks, non-road machinery and passenger vehicle hybrid markets, opening up new space in the non-road T4 stage and passenger car hybrid EGR market in 2023. At the same time, the company's natural gas heavy truck jet rail assembly products are under active warranty. Natural gas heavy truck EGR system products are accelerating incremental supply to replace imports. (2) In the new energy business sector, sales of products in the EGR sector have increased significantly over the same period last year; (2) In the new energy business sector, the company drives iron motor core The product stock customer business increased steadily; in the second half of the year, there was a marked increase in the supply of various popular new energy models to some new customers, which led to a rapid increase in revenue in this business segment. (3) In 2023, the company estimates that the impact of non-recurring profit and loss amounts on net profit will be approximately RMB 25 million, mainly government subsidies and income from idle funds.
The conditions for equity incentives for 2023 have been met. The company's equity incentive plan grants restricted stocks for the first time. The targets for the 2023 annual performance assessment are: based on 2022 results, 50% revenue growth rate in 2023, based on 2022 results, and 90% net profit growth rate in 2023.
Investment suggestions: Benefiting from the accelerated expansion of EGR and expanding the new energy business to new customers, the company's performance increased dramatically in 2023. Among them, the fourth quarter results improved at an accelerated pace. We expect profits of 1.51, 2.33, and 330 million yuan in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, corresponding to 26.4/17.1/12.1 XPE, which is highly recommended!
Risk warning: 1) Downstream demand falls short of expectations; 2) Downstream price cuts exceed expectations.