Investment advice
As of the close of January 10, 2024, the expected dividend yield for CCK REIT (Prologis REIT) 2024 has reached 6.9%, implying an average capitalization rate of 7.3% for underlying assets. We believe that the allocation value is already quite clear.
rationales
The business situation may continue to be resilient. According to Prologis REIT, as of December 31, 2023, the average occupancy rate for the 10 underlying assets was 89.63% (up 1.17% from the end of the third quarter), and the average occupancy rate at the end of the period after considering the area that had signed a lease agreement but had not yet started leasing was 91.83% 1. Looking ahead, we believe that the rental rate of Tongzhou Logistics Park may pick up relatively quickly (the contracted occupancy rate at the end of the third quarter was 70.94%, higher than the actual occupancy rate of 46.25%), and the rental rate for newly expanded assets is also expected to improve steadily.
Management actively increases holdings to support the sustainable development of the platform. Prologis REIT issued the original shareholder increase announcement 2 on December 16, 2023. The announcement shows that Prologis China's management plans to invest to increase fund shares (the proposed increase amount is not less than 80 million yuan, not more than 100 million yuan). We believe this move shows management confidence and helps promote the sustainable development of the listed platform.
Recently, the fundamentals of the logistics industry are generally under pressure, but the core market performance is still relatively steady. Our recent research shows that rental rates and rent levels are under pressure in some regions due to short-term supply expansion, but the supply and demand for high-quality assets in core first-tier cities is still relatively resilient. Most of the underlying assets of Prologis REIT are located in core cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou, and we believe that the operating performance has a stable foundation.
The current valuation may be below fair value. According to our statistics, as of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the capitalization rate of logistics assets in China's first-tier cities was about 4.50%-5.75%, which is lower than the 7.3% implied capitalization rate of the current Prologis REIT stock price. The secondary market price and the potentially reasonable primary market price may have been inverted.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Taking into account the trend of changes in rental rates and rent unit prices, we kept the 2023-2024 allocation-ready forecast unchanged and introduced the 2025 allocation-ready forecast of 366 million yuan (+2.4% year-on-year). Considering the current general marginal pressure on physical asset pricing, we lowered our 2024 year-end NAV forecast by 8.9% to 3.44 yuan/share. The current stock price of 2.68 yuan has been discounted by 22% compared to NAV. We believe that the margin of safety is quite adequate and the allocation value is clear. We simultaneously updated our target total return for 12 months to 20%. The current share price corresponds to dividend ratios of 6.9% and 7.1% for 2024 and 2025.
risks
The operating performance of underlying assets showed a relatively rapid decline.