Report summary
The company is one of the earliest domestic pharmaceutical companies engaged in biopharmaceutical R&D and production, and has rich experience in biopharmaceutical R&D, production and sales. The main business focuses on the three major fields of biopharmaceuticals, hair health, and CDMO. The company has built a rich pipeline of biomedical products. The company currently has about 30 types of products on the market. The core products include Terbiao, Exaipu, and two recombinant human red promotion brand products, such as Ibio, Cyborg, and Mandi, which each occupy a dominant position in its segmented treatment field. Terbiao is today the only commercialized recombinant human thrombocytopoietin product in the world. In the first half of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3.784 billion yuan, an increase of 22.28% over the previous year. Terbiao/Erythropoxin/Mandy/Exaip/Septin/CDMO business accounted for 53%/14%/13%/8%/3% respectively.
The company's current key products are expected to continue to grow. Terbi Australia's CAGR has been 16% in the past five years. As the only product in the global market, the company has absolute pricing rights. The latest round of national negotiations in early 2023 was easy to renew without price reduction, and the current penetration rate is low, so it is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. Yisaipu achieved price in exchange for volume, contributed to profits by expanding indications and increasing penetration rate, and sales gradually returned to the growth trend. In the first half of 2023, Yisaipu's revenue increased 25% year over year. Mandy's revenue has grown rapidly, with a CAGR of 57% in the past five years. The comprehensive expansion of Mandy's sales market through the three major channels of hospitals, pharmacies, and e-commerce will continue to increase Mandi's market space. Since the launch of Septin in 2020, revenue has grown rapidly, and is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend as sales channels and patient coverage continue to improve.
Self-developed and cooperative two-wheel drive to continuously promote differentiated and innovative R&D pipelines. The company focuses on forward-looking layout in treatment fields such as hematology, nephrology, self-immunity, oncology and ophthalmology. The company creates a differentiated product pipeline matrix through independent research and development and collaboration, and Liscense-in and liscense-out models run in parallel. Currently, the company has a rich pipeline of innovative drug research and development, 30 products under development, 10 hematology/oncology products, 5 nephrology products under development, 2 dermatology products, and 13 other diseases such as autoimmune diseases and ophthalmology. A number of varieties are being declared for marketing. The anti-IL-17A monoclonal antibody (608) and the long-term erythropotropin SSS06 have all reached the main end point. It is expected that NDA will be declared in 2024, and the anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody (601A) is expected to be declared for NDA in 2024.
Investment advice: We forecast that the company's revenue for 2023-2025 will be RMB 77.02, 85.70, and RMB 9.485 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 11% respectively. Net profit attributable to mother was RMB 19.97, 22.14, and 2,503 billion yuan, up 4%, 11%, and 13% year over year. The corresponding 2023-2025 EPS was 0.82 yuan/share, 0.91 yuan/share, and 1.03 yuan/share, respectively, with price-earnings ratios of 7.86 times, 7.10 times, and 6.28 times, respectively. Considering that the company's listed products are in high demand in the market and the competitive pattern is good, there is still plenty of room for improvement in the future. At the same time, abundant reserves in the research and innovation pipeline are expected to drive continuous rapid future revenue growth. For the first time, we gave the company a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Product development and launch falls short of expectations; risk of increased competition; risk of policy changes in the pharmaceutical industry; risk of drug price reduction.