① Major aviation countries have invested heavily in the development of eVTOL to seize the high ground for future urban low-altitude smart transportation; ② Judging from the development of application scenarios in the entire industry, the application of driverless eVTOL products has now reached an inflection point from 0 to 1; ③ China's complete industrial chain provides a relatively favorable environment for eVTOL research and development.
“Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily”, December 27 — This evening, seven departments of Shenzhen jointly issued “Certain Measures to Support High-Quality Development of the Low-Altitude Economy in Shenzhen”, which mentions speeding up the industrialization of low-altitude aircraft such as manned eVTOLs.
Specific measures include granting a certain percentage of sales incentives to low-altitude economy enterprises that develop manned eVTOL and flying cars and actually carry out related business activities in Shenzhen. Support airworthiness forensics for eVTOL aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles. Low-altitude economy enterprises that have obtained eVTOL aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicle type certification and production licenses issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China and operate in the city are rewarded, including 15 million yuan for eVTOL aircraft, 5 million yuan for large unmanned aerial vehicles, and 3 million yuan for medium unmanned aerial vehicles. Each enterprise grants no more than 30 million yuan a year, and the same model is only rewarded once.
eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing), the full name of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, is also known as a “flying car”. It is a product of aeronautical electrification. Compared with helicopters, it is more environmentally friendly and lighter, larger in size than drones, and has a wider range of applications.
From a global perspective, all major aviation countries have invested heavily in the development of eVTOL to seize the high ground for future urban low-altitude smart transportation. On this track, a number of pioneers have emerged in Europe and the US in recent years, including Joby, Archer, Volocopter, Alef Aeronautics, etc. The industrial shareholders behind them include Delta Air Lines, Toyota Motors, Geely Holdings, Tesla CEO Musk, Boeing, etc.
China is also actively promoting the “low altitude economy” industry. Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the Civil Aviation Administration of China jointly issued the “Green Aviation Manufacturing Development Outline (2023-2035)”, which proposes that electric general aviation aircraft will be put into commercial application by 2025, eVTOL will be piloted, and a complete green aviation manufacturing system will be built by 2035, and new energy aircraft will become the mainstream of development.
Shenzhen is a pioneer in the industrialization of low-altitude aircraft. In 2022, Shenzhen issued the “Shenzhen Low-Altitude Economy Industry Innovation and Development Implementation Plan (2021-2025)”; for the first time in 2023, Shenzhen proposed the development of a low-altitude economy and the construction of a low-altitude economy center in a government work report.
On December 26, the country's first unmanned manned aerial vehicle city air traffic operation center was opened in Bao'an, Shenzhen. The EH216-S unmanned manned aircraft from Ehang made its debut here (see picture below). The center will also cooperate with Ehang Intelligence and Pengcheng Wings to launch the country's first short-haul eVTOL sightseeing route.
In addition to Shenzhen, the Guangzhou Development Zone and Huangpu District have successively formulated the “Ten Rules for Low Altitude” special support policies for the low-altitude economy and industry.
Guosheng Securities said that judging from the development of application scenarios in the entire industry, the application of driverless eVTOL products has now reached an inflection point from 0 to 1. In the short term, sightseeing and low-altitude travel will be the main application scenarios; in the long run, potential application scenarios for driverless eVTOLs also include logistics transportation, emergency rescue, agriculture, forestry and plant protection, aeromedicine, electricity inspection, police aviation, etc.
Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, the world will have 12,000 flying cars for air taxis, airport shuttles, and intercity flight services. The global flying car market will reach 55 billion US dollars. In 2040, the market size will exceed 1 trillion US dollars, and in 2050, the market size will reach 9 trillion US dollars.
From an investment perspective, the development of eVTOL is inseparable from the support of advanced technologies such as battery technology, advanced materials, autonomous driving, AI technology, control systems, and satellite communications. According to Guojin Securities, China's complete industrial chain provides a relatively favorable environment for eVTOL research and development. For example, the technical experience and industrial chain advantages accumulated in industries such as aircraft and new energy vehicles can be partially transferred to the industrialization process of eVTOL.
Guosheng Securities believes that the commercialization of eVTOL is accelerating and moving further from commercial operations. It is recommended to pay attention to:
1) Targets related to the entire aircraft: such as Ehang Intelligence, Joby, Geely Automobile, Xiaopeng (participating in Xiaopeng Huitian), Shanhe Intelligence, Shangluo Electronics (participating in the eVTOL company Yiwei), Haite Hi-Tech (eVTOL simulator), etc.;
2) Power batteries and electric drives: such as Ningde Era, Funeng Technology, Wolong Electric Drive, Hong Kong Stock Innovation Airlines, etc.;
3) Other potential components: Koyo Co., Ltd., etc.