The 25-year installation target remains unchanged, actively promoting the secondary transformation of hydrogen storage
Jidian Co., Ltd. plans to acquire a minority stake in a new energy company in cash to maintain the 2025 20GW installation target unchanged; the company's hydrogen and energy storage business is progressing smoothly, actively promoting a second transformation. The profit forecast was adjusted based on industry data for January-November, where: 1) coal prices were lower than expected, and the electricity and fuel cost forecast was lowered; 2) wind and lighting resources were lower than expected, and the number of hours of wind power and photovoltaic power generation was lowered. We adjusted the company's net profit from 23-25 to 11.3/15.1/1.8 billion yuan (previous value: 11.8/15.6/1.86 billion yuan) and BPS 4.41/4.95/5.59 yuan (previous value: 4.43/4.99/5.66 yuan). Referring to the comparable 24-year PB average of 1.3x (wind unanimous expectation), the company was given 1.3 xPB in 24, with a target price of 6.44 yuan (previous value of 6.65 yuan based on 1.5 xPB in 23). Maintain the “Overweight” rating.
The acquisition of minority shares in a new energy company, and the 2025 installation target remains unchanged. According to the company's announcement on December 11, 2023, the company acquired minority shares in six new energy projects owned by BOC Investment and BOC Investment. The total consideration for the equity acquisition transaction was 1,476 billion yuan.
In 2020-2022, the profit and loss of minority shareholders of the company accounted for 40%/43%/43% of net profit, respectively. Mainly, the equity ratio of new energy projects was relatively low. The acquisition will further increase the installed capacity of the company's new energy equity and increase the company's net profit from its parent. Furthermore, according to the company's announcement on December 18, 2023, the company's goal of reaching 20GW of installed capacity in 2025 remains unchanged.
Hydrogen and energy storage businesses are progressing smoothly, actively promoting secondary transformation
In the hydrogen energy sector, according to CCTV financial reports, the Daan Scenery Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Synthesis Demonstration Project is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in 4Q24, and a 10 million kilowatt new energy hydrogen production base will be built in western Jilin in 2030.
In the energy storage sector, the company launched an overall solution for lead-carbon battery energy storage on November 16, 2023 at the 25th China International High-tech Fair. The first batch of lead-carbon battery products has been released for mass production, and the energy storage project is being promoted and implemented throughout the country. According to the company's official public account, the company has developed a lead-carbon battery energy storage power plant with a capacity of 3 GWh and a reserve project exceeding 10 GWh, making it the first energy state-owned enterprise in China to achieve large-scale and commercialized development of lead-carbon battery energy storage.
Risk warning: The increase in coal prices exceeded expectations, the number of hours used fell, and the progress of projects under construction fell short of expectations.