Incident: The company announced that anomitil tablets were included in the “National Health Insurance Catalogue” for the first time through medical insurance negotiations (2023); enovirin tablets continued to be included in the medical insurance catalogue through simple contract renewals.
Anomitide tablets were included in medical insurance at a reasonable price reduction, and the scope of payment was optimized. The current medical insurance payment standard for anomitide tablets is 24.15 yuan/tablet, a decrease of 35.6% compared to the previous winning bid price, which is quite reasonable. This time, the scope of medical insurance payments for the company's two products has been adjusted to “limit HIV infection”, which is conducive to expanding the number of people covered by medical insurance payments, achieving full coverage of newly treated patients and treated patients, and helping to increase peak long-term sales.
Anomitide tablets have high clinical value, and there is plenty of room for long-term growth. According to the summary report of the phase III clinical trial of anomitide tablets, with Accoon tablets (Jiefukang?) In comparison, for HIV-infected people who have obtained viral suppression through treatment, anomitite tablets can maintain viral suppression for a long time and are quite effective. They are comparable in terms of liver and kidney safety, and have advantages in cardiovascular metabolic safety indicators such as blood lipids, body weight, and uric acid. The combination regimen of anomitide tablets (oral single-tablet combination) is the standard treatment recommended by international and domestic anti-HIV clinical practice guidelines.
After being included in the medical insurance catalogue this time, enomitide tablets have a certain price advantage compared to the prices of anti-HIV drugs from imported manufacturers. We believe that anomitib tablets are expected to gain clinical recognition and a good cost performance ratio through the accumulation of good evidence-based medical evidence, and will enter the rapid release stage from 2024.
Earnings forecasts and valuations. We expect the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 to be 465 million yuan, 715 million yuan and 943 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 90.3%, 53.9% and 31.9% respectively; net profit of net profit is -39 million yuan, 65 million yuan and 184 million yuan respectively. Based on the closing price on December 19, the corresponding PE is -131.9, 79.3 and 28.1 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Medical insurance negotiations for enovirin tablets were unsuccessful, the medical insurance payment price was lower than expected, or the sales amount was lower than expected. The purchase amount of human protein business customers fell short of expectations, and downstream drug collection put pressure on the price of human protein products.