'Dumb Money' Is Super Confident In Stock Market Right Now: Should We Be Concerned?
'Dumb Money' Is Super Confident In Stock Market Right Now: Should We Be Concerned?
The "Dumb Money Confidence" index rose to its third-highest reading in 25 years on Friday, just as the VIX volatility index, also known as Wall Street's "fear gauge" traded at its lowest levels since 2019.
週五，“愚蠢的貨幣信心” 指數升至25年來的第三高水平，而VIX波動率指數（也被稱爲華爾街的 “恐懼指標”）則處於2019年以來的最低水平。
Coincidence or correlation?
巧合還是關聯？
It's a well-known maxim of Warren Buffett: "When everybody else gets greedy, get scared. And when everybody else gets scared, get greedy," and illustrates perfectly what the two indexes are telling us: that the bandwagon effect has taken hold.
這是沃倫·巴菲特的一句衆所周知的格言：“當其他人變得貪婪時，就會害怕。當其他人都感到害怕時，就會變得貪婪。” 這完美地說明了這兩個指數在告訴我們的話：潮流效應已經扎根。
The bandwagon effect, follow-the-crowd — whatever you want to call it — is a trading bias that indulges a group-think mentality. This would be fine if you follow a crowd getting in on the meat of an asset price rise.
潮流效應，即跟隨人群——不管你想怎麼稱呼——是一種放縱集體思維心態的交易偏見。如果你關注一群人來了解資產價格上漲的實質內容，那就沒問題了。
Following The Crowd Too Late
關注人群爲時已晚
But bandwagons don't pick up the players until the tune is well established. And so it is with dumb money that follows the trend too late.
但是，直到曲調完全成熟，潮流才會吸引演奏者。因此，用愚蠢的錢來追隨潮流爲時已晚。
That, according to Jason Goepfert, founder of Sentiment Trader, who invented the Dumb Money index, is why stock indexes are trading within 2% of their record highs, why the VIX index, a measure of market confidence, is trading at a four-year low and his own index is at its third-highest level in 25 years.
根據發明Dumb Money指數的Sentiment Trader創始人傑森·戈普弗特的說法，這就是爲什麼股指的交易價格距離歷史高點不到2％，衡量市場信心的VIX指數創四年來最低水平，而他自己的指數處於25年來的第三高水平。
"The time most trend-followers hop on a trend, and most aggressively, is about the time the trend is becoming exhausted," says Goepfert.
Goepfert說：“大多數趨勢追隨者追隨潮流，也是最激進的時候，正是趨勢耗盡的時候。”
"Because most investors follow trends to some degree, these indicators tend to capture the behavior of most of the money flowing into and out of markets," he adds.
他補充說：“由於大多數投資者在某種程度上遵循趨勢，因此這些指標往往會捕捉大部分流入和流出市場的資金的行爲。”
The Dumb Money index is currently at 87. When it hit 88 in July, the S&P 500 suffered a three-month pullback.
Dumb Money指數目前爲87。標準普爾500指數在7月份觸及88點時，經歷了爲期三個月的回調。
How Far Can The Rally Be Pushed?
漲勢能推多遠？
The current rally in stocks has been established for nearly two months so it could have longer to go — particularly given the boost this week from a more dovish than expected Federal Reserve.
目前股市的漲勢已經持續了將近兩個月，因此可能還有更長的路要走——特別是考慮到本週美聯儲的鴿派態度超出預期，提振了股市。
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, is up nearly 15% so far in this rally, while the ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (NYSE:VIXM), which tracks the VIX index, is down nearly 24% during the stock market rally.
追蹤標準普爾500指數的交易所交易基金SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）迄今已上漲近15％，而追蹤VIX指數的ProShares VIX中期期貨ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：VIXM）在股市上漲期間下跌了近24％。
Goepfert says: "Very high confidence typically precedes modest gains at best until sentiment resets."
Goepfert說：“在情緒重啓之前，極高的信心充其量只能先於溫和的上漲。”
Much will depend, going into 2024 on the macroeconomic environment, which is already showing signs of slowing growth.
進入2024年，很大程度上將取決於宏觀經濟環境，宏觀經濟環境已經顯示出增長放緩的跡象。
Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。