Maintain the “increase in holdings” rating and maintain the target price of 33.16 yuan, corresponding to 26xP/E in 2023:

Considering market fluctuations affecting the company's investment income, we lowered our net profit forecast for 23/24/25 to 10/14/1.9 billion yuan (previous adjustment of 16/21/26 billion yuan), corresponding to EPS of 1.30/1.89/2.44 (2.11/2.69/3.44 yuan). Maintain the “increase in holdings” rating and maintain the target price of 33.16 yuan, corresponding to 26xP/E in '23.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed “encouraging the development of venture capital and equity investment” to benefit the company's private equity business development: From December 11 to 12, the Central Economic Work Conference was held, which clearly mentioned “encouraging the development of venture capital and equity investment.” The reason for proposing this policy is to promote scientific and technological innovation. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned that scientific and technological innovation leads the construction of a modern industrial system. Technological innovation is inseparable from capital investment, and encouraging the development of venture capital and equity investment to bring capital support to scientific and technological innovation. Sichuan Shuangma is deeply involved in the private equity industry and continues to lay out scientific and technological innovation fields such as new energy and semiconductors. Furthermore, the Harmonious Green Industry Fund, a new fund established by the company, has also begun investing, investing more in the science and innovation industry, benefiting deeply from this policy.

The scale of the new fund is gradually increasing, and the old fund projects are gradually withdrawing to redeem income, and it is optimistic that future performance will be released at an accelerated pace: the total amount pledged by the company's new funds has reached 7.95 billion yuan, which is expected to lead to a positive increase in management fee revenue with the increase in scale. Many of the company's old fund projects, such as Aojie Technology and Zhiou Technology, have already been listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and many other projects are also in the process of going public. The listing and subsequent exit will accelerate the implementation of the company's investment income and performance rewards, and the release of performance is expected to accelerate.

Catalyst: The policy favors the development of private equity business, and the company's new fund raising accelerates.

Risk warning: The prosperity of the private equity investment industry has declined, and the market has fluctuated greatly.