SINOTRANS LIMITED(601598):LOGISTICS INDUSTRY GOING GLOBAL(II):RE-RATING OF SINOTRANS
SINOTRANS LIMITED(601598):LOGISTICS INDUSTRY GOING GLOBAL(II):RE-RATING OF SINOTRANS
Action
行動
This report is the second in our series of reports on China's logistics industry going global. In our first report Logistics industry going global (I):
這份報告是我們關於中國物流業走向全球的系列報告中的第二份。在我們的第一份報告《物流業走向全球》（I）中：
Cross-border e-commerce logistics companies opening a new chapter
跨境電子商務物流公司開啓新篇章
published on December 9, we analyzed the market size, industry landscape and several variables of the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry, and discussed investment themes. In this report, we focus on Sinotrans, the largest freight forwarding company in China's cross-border logistics market. We believe Sinotrans has the potential for a valuation re- rating, driven by the growth of cross-border e-commerce platforms.
我們於12月9日發佈，分析了跨境電子商務物流行業的市場規模、行業格局和幾個變量，並討論了投資主題。在本報告中，我們重點關注中國跨境物流市場上最大的貨運代理公司中國外運。我們認爲，在跨境電子商務平台增長的推動下，中國外運有可能獲得重新估值評級。
Reasoning The market has undervalued DHL-Sinotrans. 1) We think DHL- Sinotrans is a solid asset with strong earnings and high growth:
理由市場低估了DHL-SinoTrans的價值。1) 我們認爲敦豪-中國外運是一筆穩健的資產，收益強勁，增長迅速：
DHL-Sinotrans' revenue and net profit grew at CAGRs of 10.4% and 12.1% over 2013-2022, with the return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) averaging 79.0% and 42.8%. We estimate that over the past 10 years, total assets of DHL-Sinotrans accounted for 5% of those of DHL Express, and that it contributed 10.5% of DHL Express' revenue and 18.6% of its EBIT.
2013-2022年，DHL-SinoTrans的收入和淨利潤以10.4％和12.1％的複合年增長率增長，股本回報率（ROE）和資產回報率（ROA）平均爲79.0％和42.8％。我們估計，在過去的10年中，DHL-SinoTrans的總資產佔敦豪快遞的5％，它貢獻了敦豪快遞收入的10.5％，佔其息稅前收益的18.6％。
2) Unlike the market, we believe DHL-Sinotrans may regain growth in
2）與市場不同，我們認爲DHL-SinoTrans可能會恢復增長
2024, considering that it uses the pricing mechanism of DHL Express (annually adjusted base price + fuel surcharge + emergency situation surcharge), and its cross-border e-commerce business volume will likely grow. We expect DHL-Sinotrans' operating profit to decline 12.0% YoY to Rmb1.64bn in 2023 and rise 7.5% YoY to Rmb1.77bn in 2024.
2024年，考慮到其使用的是DHL Express的定價機制（每年調整後的基本價格+燃油附加費+緊急情況附加費），其跨境電子商務業務量可能會增長。我們預計，敦豪中運的營業利潤將在2023年同比下降12.0％至16.4億元人民幣，並在2024年同比增長7.5％至17.7億元人民幣。
We believe the firm's freight forwarding business enjoys greater stability in earnings than the market believes: 1) Sea freight and shipping agency are the cornerstones of the freight forwarding
我們認爲，該公司的貨運代理業務的收益穩定性比市場認爲的要高：1）海運和航運代理是貨運代理的基石
business. The two segments together accounted for about 55% of the operating profit of the freight forwarding business in 2022. We believe their unit earnings are not closely correlated with sea freight rates, and will rise steadily as more services are provided.
商業。這兩個板塊加起來約佔2022年貨運代理業務營業利潤的55％。我們認爲，他們的單位收益與海運費率並不密切相關，並且將隨着更多服務的提供而穩步增長。
2) Earnings of air freight and rail freight businesses fluctuated to some extent, but the impact was moderate. If unit earnings of air freight
2）空運和鐵路貨運業務的收益在一定程度上波動，但影響不大。如果是空運的單位收入
and rail freight forwarding businesses fall to the pre-2020 level in 2024 (about 17% lower than our assumption for 2024), the combined impact will lead to a 1.1% decline in overall operating profit, in our view.
在我們看來，鐵路貨運代理業務將在2024年降至2020年之前的水平（比我們對2024年的假設低約17％），綜合影響將導致整體營業利潤下降1.1％。
Sinotrans is trading at a discount of at least 20% to its competitors.
中國外運的交易價格比競爭對手摺扣至少20％。
Sinotrans is trading at 9.4x 2023e and 8.4x 2024e P/E in the A-share market, implying a discount of at least 20% to both domestic and international freight forwarders. In addition, the market only values DHL- Sinotrans as a traditional freight forwarder, while the three major international express delivery companies are trading at 15.7x 2023e and 14.0x 2024e on average, more than 60% higher than Sinotrans' current valuation. We think the firm's valuation may recover after the market fully recognizes the value of DHL-Sinotrans and the firm's freight forwarding business.
中國外運在A股市場的交易價格爲2023年的9.4倍，市盈率爲2024年的8.4倍，這意味着國內和國際貨運代理的折扣至少爲20％。此外，市場僅將敦豪-中國外運視爲傳統的貨運代理商，而三大國際快遞公司的平均交易價格爲2023年度的15.7倍和2024年的14.0倍，比中國外運目前的估值高出60％以上。我們認爲，在市場充分認識到 DHL-SinoTrans 和該公司貨運代理業務的價值之後，該公司的估值可能會回升。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our earnings forecasts largely unchanged. We expect attributable net profit to fall 4.7% YoY to Rmb3.88bn in 2023 and grow 11.9% YoY to Rmb4.34bn 2024. A-shares are trading at 9.4x 2023e and 8.4x 2024e P/E. H-shares are trading at 5.0x 2023e and 4.5x 2024e P/E.
我們的收益預測基本保持不變。我們預計，2023年應占淨利潤將同比下降4.7％至38.8億元人民幣，同比增長11.9％，至2024年43.4億元人民幣。A股的交易價格爲2023年度的9.4倍，市盈率爲2024年的8.4倍。H股的交易價格爲2023年的5.0倍，市盈率爲2024年的4.5倍。
We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, and our target prices for the A- shares of Rmb6.2 (implying 11.7x 2023e and 10.4x 2024e P/E with 24.7% upside), and for the H-shares of HK$4.06 (implying 7.0x 2023e and 6.3x 2024e P/E with 37.2% upside).
我們維持跑贏大盤評級，A股的目標價爲人民幣6.2元（這意味着2023年度的市盈率爲11.7倍，2024年期市盈率爲10.4倍，上漲幅度爲24.7％），H股的目標價格爲4.06港元（這意味着2023年度的7.0倍和2024年的6.3倍，上漲幅度爲37.2％）。
The firm's dividend payout ratio rose from 31.7% in 2019 to 48.4% in 1H23, and its dividend yield is 5.2% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024 for the A- shares, and 9.5% in 2023 and 10.7% in 2024 for the H-shares.
該公司的股息支付率從2019年的31.7％上升到23年上半年的48.4％，A股的股息收益率在2023年爲5.2％，在2024年爲5.8％，H股在2023年爲9.5％，在2024年爲10.7％。
Risks
風險
Sharp decline in air freight rates; lower-than-expected GMV of cross- border e-commerce; disappointing international trade volume.
空運費率急劇下降；跨境電子商務的GMV低於預期；國際貿易量令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。