[summary of the research report]
The market fell this week, with cars and parts down 2.6%. Among them, the auto parts sub-plate fell 2.8%, the whole automobile sub-plate fell 3.0%, the auto service sub-plate fell 4.1%, and the CSI 300 index fell 2.9%. The share prices of key A-share companies fell mostly this week, with the top three gains.Double ring drive、Silver wheel sharesAndTianrun crankshaft, up 4.9%, 2.7% and 1.3% respectively, with the top three declinesJingwei shares、Jiangling MotorsAndShuanglin shares, down 8.0%, 7.8% and 7.6%, respectively.
The dealer inventory warning index rose in July. In July 2019, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers was 62.2%, up 11.8% from the previous month and 8.3% from the same period last year. According to the brand type index, import &LuxuriousBrand index, joint venture brand index and independent brand index all increased compared with last month.
Investment advice:(1) Automobile consumption is of great importance to the stability of the economy, and it will improve marginally in the second half of the year. China's automobile market has entered the late stage of popularity, the industry growth center has declined, while superimposed by the impact of macroeconomic decline, car sales will still be under pressure in the short term. In the context of stabilizing aggregate demand and stimulating consumption in 2019, car sales are becoming more important to stabilizing the economy, and car sales are expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year thanks to a rebound in credit and sales stimulus. (2) Industry integration has entered the substantive stage, and first-line autonomy + joint venture is recommended. Under the background of tariff reduction and stock ratio liberalization, competition in the automobile market intensifies. At the same time, due to the pressure of environmental protection and new energy policies, industry consolidation is expected to enter a substantive stage in 2019, and the joint venture brand German-Japanese system continues to be strong, optimistic about Sino-Japanese car sales in the economic downward cycle. Recommend first-line autonomy + German-Japanese joint venture, pay attention toSAIC Group、Guangzhou Automobile Group. (3) Environmental protection: the sixth year of junior high school is approaching, post-processing upgrade. Meeting the national emission standards in the sixth stage requires a number of technologies to coordinate calibration, and the upgrading of post-processing products is the focus of this round of emission upgrading. Suggest to pay attention toWeifu high-tech, Silverwheel shares and other companies with early layout and perfect product reserves. (4) spare parts: industry pressure, select individual stocks. Downstream car sales growth slows, parts are under pressure, ROE is likely to decline. At present, the valuation of parts and components is still in the downward cycle, and the pressure is still high in 2019. In this context, it is recommended to pay attention toPrecision forging technology、Fuyao Glass Industry Group、Xinquan sharesAnd other enterprises with high performance certainty.
Risk hintWith the macroeconomic downturn, car sales fell short of expectations; the new energy policy was tightened; and the enforcement of emission standards was less than expected.