Investment Highlights
• Diversified Scalable Technology Platform Infrastructure Enabling Diversified Course Offerings - QuantaSing started its journey in July 2019 by launching its flagship online financial learning service, QiNiu. The company gained significant traction early on, making it the largest online financial literacy platform for adults in China. It then introduced enterprise-focused services in February 2020, followed by the launch of JiangZhen and QianChi as a part of the company’s other personal interest courses in August 2021 and June 2022, respectively. Building on its initial success in financial literacy and broadening the scope of its technology platform for adult learners, the company built “truly” diversified offerings, enabling it to scale, increase its revenue sources, and reduce its dependency on a single segment.
• Robust KPIs, Signifying Effective Strategy Implementation - QuantaSing has laid out a multifaceted growth strategy that leverages its core strengths in technology and educational content. The strategy focuses on increasing learners' engagement and retention by continually enriching course offerings based on proven customer demand along with quality human capital and expanding the user base by using data-driven marketing approaches. Additionally, the company invests heavily in building proprietary technology and data analytics to optimize learner experience and operational efficiency. These efforts are being reflected in the company’s operating metrics and financial numbers. The total registered users grew from 17.0 million as of June 2021 to 94.3 million as of June 2023, while the total paying learners saw a healthy increase from 0.8 million for 2021 to 1.1 million for 2022. Moreover, the company has also extended its successful business model to other platforms and diversified by providing enterprise services. The enterprise services revenue has registered robust growth from RMB 144.31 million in 2021 to RMB 340.9 million in 2023. Finally, the company is eyeing overseas expansion and considering strategic collaborations, potentially through investments or acquisitions, to expand its market share. Recently, the company announced the acquisition of Kelly’s Education, an online language education platform, and forayed into the live e-commerce sector to further drive long-term growth.
• The Need for Lifelong and Adult Learning - The rapid economic and technological growth in China has spurred an increasing demand for lifelong and adult learning as an economic imperative. Driven by advancements in automation and digitization and an aging workforce, the need for continuous upskilling and reskilling has never been greater. This urgency is further amplified by the deeply ingrained Chinese perspective that sees education as a holistic, lifelong endeavor, a view supported by overwhelming public opinion in recent surveys. In a society that highly values education for personal growth, workplace competence, and staying abreast with current times, adult learning programs and personal development are essential for sustained career paths and the overall economic vitality of the nation.
• Leader in a Fragmented, Rapidly Growing Market - QuantaSing has secured a dominant role in China’s fragmented but rapidly expanding adult personal interest learning market. In a market characterized by the presence of many players, QuantaSing has held a leading position for two consecutive years. The adult personal interest learning market generated a revenue of RMB 153.5 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.1% from 2022 to 2027. While QuantaSing primarily focuses on the individual segments, there’s also burgeoning potential in the enterprise services segment, where businesses are increasingly investing in professional development programs for employees. QuantaSing’s growing brand recognition and customer loyalty allows it to leverage cross-selling and upselling opportunities, acting as a potential barrier to entry in a competitive market.
• Valuation - A blended discounted cash flow analysis and comparable company analysis approach, assuming a 13.0% discount rate, 1.5% terminal growth, and 1.95x EV/Sales multiple, yielded a valuation of $10.75 per share, contingent on successful execution by the company
投資亮點
• 多元化的可擴展技術平台基礎設施實現多元化課程——QuanTasing於2019年7月推出了旗艦在線金融學習服務QiniU,開始了其旅程。該公司很早就獲得了極大的關注,使其成爲中國最大的成人在線金融知識平台。然後,它於2020年2月推出了以企業爲中心的服務,隨後分別於2021年8月和2022年6月推出了JiangZhen和QianChi作爲公司其他個人興趣課程的一部分。在金融知識方面取得初步成功的基礎上,該公司擴大了面向成人學習者的技術平台範圍,建立了 “真正的” 多元化產品,使其能夠擴大規模,增加收入來源,減少對單一細分市場的依賴。
• 穩健的關鍵績效指標,標誌着有效的戰略實施——QuanTasing制定了一項多方面的增長戰略,利用其在技術和教育內容方面的核心優勢。該戰略側重於通過基於成熟的客戶需求和高質量的人力資本不斷豐富課程來提高學習者的參與度和留存率,並通過使用數據驅動的營銷方法擴大用戶群。此外,該公司在開發專有技術和數據分析方面進行了大量投資,以優化學習者體驗和運營效率。這些努力反映在公司的運營指標和財務數據中。註冊用戶總數從截至2021年6月的1,700萬增長到2023年6月的9,430萬,而付費學習者的總數則從2021年的80萬健康增長到2022年的110萬。此外,該公司還將其成功的商業模式擴展到其他平台,並通過提供企業服務實現多元化。企業服務收入從2021年的1.4431億元人民幣強勁增長到2023年的3.409億元人民幣。最後,該公司正在考慮海外擴張,並考慮通過投資或收購進行戰略合作,以擴大其市場份額。最近,該公司宣佈收購在線語言教育平台Kelly's Education,並涉足直播電子商務領域,以進一步推動長期增長。
• 終身和成人學習的需求——中國的快速經濟和技術增長刺激了對終身和成人學習作爲經濟當務之急的需求不斷增長。在自動化和數字化的進步以及勞動力老齡化的推動下,對持續提高技能和再培訓的需求從未如此強烈。這種緊迫感進一步加劇了這種緊迫性,這種根深蒂固的中國視角將教育視爲一項全面、終身的努力,這一觀點在最近的調查中得到了壓倒性的公衆輿論的支持。在一個高度重視教育促進個人成長、工作場所能力和與時俱進的社會中,成人學習計劃和個人發展對於持續的職業道路和國家的整體經濟活力至關重要。
• 分散、快速增長的市場的領導者——QuanTasing已在中國分散但迅速擴張的成人個人興趣學習市場中佔據主導地位。在以衆多參與者爲特徵的市場中,QuanTasing連續兩年保持領先地位。成人個人興趣學習市場在2022年創造了1535億元人民幣的收入,預計從2022年到2027年將以14.1%的複合年增長率增長。儘管QuanTasing主要關注各個細分市場,但企業服務領域的潛力也在不斷增長,企業越來越多地投資於員工的職業發展計劃。QuanTasing不斷提高的品牌知名度和客戶忠誠度使其能夠利用交叉銷售和追加銷售機會,成爲進入競爭激烈市場的潛在障礙。
• 估值——混合折扣現金流分析和可比公司分析方法,假設折現率爲13.0%,終端增長率爲1.5%,電動汽車/銷售倍數爲1.95倍,每股估值爲10.75美元,具體取決於公司的成功執行