A commodity research director even shouted: Currently, there is only one trend in oil prices, and that is falling!
A foreign media survey on Wednesday showed that although OPEC+ is expected to extend production cuts, oil prices will “struggle” in 2024 as some global growth risks dampen demand.
A survey of 30 economists and analysts predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil may be $84.43 by 2024.
In addition, analysts' estimates for next year's WTI crude oil were also lowered from $83.02 per barrel last month to $80.50 per barrel. Florent Pele, commodity strategist at Société Générale, said:
“Under the impact of geopolitical tail-end risks and bearish fundamentals, it is difficult for us to be bullish on crude oil. OPEC+ has few options to deal with potential weak demand, and we are lowering our forecasts to reflect the increasingly bleak demand outlook.”
Analysts also expect oil demand growth in 2024 to range from 500,000 to 2.2 million barrels per day, while the September forecast is 1 million to 2 million barrels per day.
The benchmark Brent crude oil has fallen more than 15% since the end of September due to concerns about record production and demand in the US, and the average price since this year has been around $82.50 per barrel.
Due to differences among some oil producers, OPEC+ postponed the meeting originally held last week until this Thursday. Ministers may decide to extend or deepen production cuts to support oil prices.
Goldman Sachs said in a report. “We still expect that Saudi Arabia and Russia's unilateral production cuts will be extended until at least the first quarter of 2024, and that the scale of OPEC+ production cuts will not change, even though the options for the entire group to expand production cuts are still on the table.” Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that even if OPEC+ extends production cuts, the oil market will experience a slight oversupply in 2024. Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW, said:
“Ultimately, OPEC+ has trouble stopping the trend in oil prices: it's falling! ”