The US GDP in the third quarter rose to the fastest in the past two years. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book confirmed that the economy and prices were slowing simultaneously. The speeches of many Fed officials deepened the market's expectations for a soft landing in the economy and interest rate cuts in the first half of next year. The NASDAQ rose 1% in the intraday period, and the US stock index hovered around a four-month high, and November will welcome its biggest increase in a year. Before Cybertruck was delivered, Tesla fell 1%, chip stocks rose, the China Commodity Index fell more than 1%, Station B fell 11%, and Meituan ADR fell 6.7%.
The two-year US Treasury yield fell by more than 10 basis points for two consecutive days, and the 10-year yield fell below 4.3% for the first time since September. The reversal in the US dollar broke away from its lowest level in three and a half months, but it will record the biggest monthly decline in a year. The offshore renminbi peaked at 7.11 yuan and then declined after reaching a high of nearly four months. Betting on interest rate cuts pushed gold to remain stable at a seven-month high, and futures rose to $2,070. According to the media, OPEC+ is considering cutting production by another million b/d, and oil prices have risen by about 2% for two consecutive days to a new high in the past two weeks.
The US GDP for the third quarter was revised up to 5.2% in the second reading, exceeding expectations, setting the fastest rate of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. The PCE price index was revised down to 2.8% year on year, confirming a downward trend in inflation.
Futures traders bet that the next two FOMC meetings will not raise interest rates. The probability of interest rate cuts in March next year rises to 45%, and the probability of interest rate cuts in May next year is close to 80%. The market believes that the Fed will cut interest rates four times next year, for a total of 100 basis points.
In next year's voting committee, Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin said that if inflation does not continue to slow down, he may consider raising interest rates, but he also said that if he is convinced that inflation is falling back towards 2%, it will be possible to cut interest rates. Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic is more confident that the economy will land softly and predicts a further decline in inflation. Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester supports not raising interest rates in December for the time being.
According to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, US economic activity has slowed since the last report was released, labor demand continues to relax, and prices have largely moderated but are still high.
Markets await Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday and October PCE inflation data on Thursday. Bill Ackman, founder of hedge fund Pershing Plaza, is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates as soon as the first quarter of next year.
The November harmonized CPI of Germany, the largest economy in Europe, increased 2.3% year on year, weaker than the expected 2.5% and previous value of 3%, the lowest since June 2021. Inflation in Spain also slowed, both strengthening the market's bet that the ECB will take the lead in cutting interest rates next year.
The S&P Index turned down at the end of the session, and the Dow narrowly closed higher. Chip stocks rose but large technology stocks fell, and Station B fell by more than 11%
On Wednesday, November 29, the three major US stock indices collectively opened higher. The NASDAQ, which has a majority of technology stocks, once rose by about 1%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Value Weighted Index was the highest in history in the market. The Dow rose more than 140 points, and Russell's small-cap stock rose 1.9%. S&P and NASDAQ turned down at the end of the session.
By the close, the Dow had been rising for two days, the highest since August 7, but it was close to erasing the full day's gains. The S&P market is still hovering at a high level since August 1, the NASDAQ is still hovering at a high level since July 31, and Russell's small-cap stocks have stopped falling for two days and are not far from their two-month high:
The S&P 500 index closed down 4.31 points, or 0.09%, to 4550.58 points. The Dow closed up 13.44 points, or 0.04%, to 35430.42 points. The Nasdaq closed down 23.27 points, or 0.16%, to 14258.49 points. The “panic index” VIX rose more than 2% and fell to 13. Last Friday it hit its lowest level from 12.45 to January 17, 2020.
The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose 0.6%, the NASDAQ 100 fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Value Weighted Index (NDXTMC, NASDAQ Technology Index for short), which measures the performance of technology companies in the NASDAQ 100, fell slightly, but it was not far from last Monday's historical closing high.
The Dow rose by about 7.2% in November, which will be the best monthly performance since October 2022. The S&P 500 index rose 8.5% in November, and the NASDAQ, which rose 11%, will soon create the best monthly performance since July 2022.
Cloud monitoring and analysis company Datadog rose more than 40% during the month, the biggest increase in the NASDAQ 100, followed closely by Pinduoduo and cybersecurity company Crowdstrike, which rose more than 30%. Big tech, popular artificial intelligence, and chip stocks all made impressive gains. AMD and Tesla rose more than 20%, and Intel, Nvidia, Apple, Microgroup, Meta, and Amazon all rose more than 10%. However, the energy sector was the only one that closed down this month.
Star technology stocks fell sharply. “Metaverse” Meta fell 2%, Google A fell 1.6%, and Apple fell 0.5%, all to the lowest level in two weeks. Amazon fell 0.5%, falling for two consecutive days from the highest in 19 and a half months, Microsoft fell 1% out of its all-time high, and Netflix fell 0.4% and remained the highest in 22 months. Before the delivery of the electric pickup truck, Tesla rose 2.4% and then fell 1%, stopping rising for three days and leaving the highest level for six weeks.
However, chip stocks generally rose, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 1% from its lowest level in two weeks. Intel rose 1.6% to a new 19-month high, AMD rose 1.5% to return to the highest level in five and a half months, and Nvidia rose 0.7%, rising the second day in six trading days.
AI concept stocks also rose. C3.ai rose nearly 2%, Soundhound.ai rose nearly 1%, all the highest in nearly three months, and Palantir Technologies rose 0.7%, rebounding two days from a low of two and a half weeks, but Bigbear.ai fell more than 4%.
The popular Chinese stock index fell after the US stock market. ETF KWEB fell 1.7%, CQQQ fell 1.3%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 1.3%. It fell to a low level for three days to a week and a half, falling below 6,500 points.
Among Nasdaq's 100 constituent stocks, JD fell 2.6%, Baidu fell 1.3%, and Pinduoduo rose nearly 2%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba fell 2.7%, Tencent ADR fell 1.5%, and Station B fell 11%. NIO Auto rose more than 4% and then turned down 0.4%, Xiaopeng Motor fell 4%, Ideal Auto fell by more than 5%, Meituan ADR fan list fell 6.7%, and Weibo fell more than 3%.
According to the news, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun said that artificial intelligence will be “quite competitive” with humans within five years. A number of investment banks raised their ratings and target prices for Pinduoduo. Yesterday, the stock surged 18% due to favorable earnings reports. On Wednesday, the market value of the US stock market surpassed Alibaba's intraday market value for a while. Ma Yun made a rare statement on Ali's intranet, saying, “I firmly believe that Ali will change, Ali will change.” Station B's revenue for the third quarter was flat year-on-year, and adjusted net losses were cut in half. Net turnover for the whole year is expected to be at the low end of the guidance range. NIO and Geely launch a power exchange cooperation to open up the B-side power exchange market. Duan Yongping, a well-known investor, said on the community platform that he would buy back Tencent shares. Meituan warned of a slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter, and Citi and Morgan Stanley lowered their target prices. Weibo will issue 300 million US dollars of convertible senior notes, and US stocks fell more than 11% after the market.
Bank stock indexes rose nearly 2% to break away from a two-week low. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX), an industry benchmark, reached the highest level in three and a half months. At the end of October, it was the lowest in three years since September 2020. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) is closer to a three-month high. May 11 was the lowest since November 2020. Credit Suisse Wealth Management rose nearly 7%, the best performance in four months.
Other individual stocks that have changed a lot include:
Salesforce (Salesforce) rose nearly 5% after the market, and revenue for the third quarter increased 11% year on year to US$8.72 billion. The upper limit of the next quarter's revenue range exceeded expectations. Snowflake, a cloud computing infrastructure provider that rarely participated in “breaking new ground” with Buffett's participation, rose more than 10% after the market, and the revenue guidelines for the third quarter and full year both exceeded expectations.
GM rose more than 9%, rising five to the highest in nearly two months. It launched a $10 billion accelerated stock repurchase plan, increased the 2024 dividend by 30%, and resumed this year's performance guidelines. It is estimated that the latest labor agreement will increase costs by 9.3 billion US dollars, which is about 575 US dollars in cost per vehicle. The six-week strike will have an impact of 1.1 billion US dollars on profit before interest and tax. Stellantis's European and US stocks rose more than 5%.
Data infrastructure company NetApp rose more than 14% to a 21-month high, CrowdStrike rose more than 10% to a 19-month high, and footwear retailer Foot Locker rose 16% to the highest level in nearly half a year. Financial reports all exceeded expectations and raised profit guidelines. However, pet products retailer Petco fell nearly 29% to a record low. Revenue in the third quarter was poor and there was a loss per share. The market originally expected profit per share.
There are reports that US health insurance giant Cigna is negotiating a merger with Humana, and its stock prices have fallen by more than 8% and more than 5%, respectively. Activist investor Elliott Investment Management spent $1 billion to invest in US refiner Phillips 66, seeking as many as two board seats to drive business improvements. The latter rose 3.6% to a two-month high.
The “Retail Group Stock” game site regained retail far-term bullish options bets. Following a rise of more than 13% on Tuesday, it rose more than 20% on Wednesday. At one point in the intraday period, it rose 30%, and the stock price reached a two-month high.
European stocks rose sharply. Only the British stock index fell. The German and Italian stock indexes were both above 1%, hitting highs in nearly four months and approaching 2008 highs, respectively. The pan-European Stoxx 600 Index closed up 0.45%, approaching the highest in two months since September 20 set on Friday. Auto stocks rose more than 2%, and interest-sensitive real estate and technology stocks rose more than 1.5%.
Two-year US Treasury yields fell by more than 10 basis points for two consecutive days, and base bond yields fell 4.3% for the first time since September
Market expectations for European and American central banks to cut interest rates sharply next year continue to heat up, and European and US bond yields hit a new low for several months.
The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, fell more than 10 basis points in the intraday period for two consecutive days. The deepest drop on Wednesday was 13 basis points and fell by 4.61%, the lowest in four and a half months since July 13. The yield on 10-year base bonds fell below 4.3% for the first time since September, and fell 8 basis points during the day to 4.25%, the lowest for two and a half months from three consecutive days to September 14.
German CPI data strengthened the prospects for the ECB to cut interest rates. The Eurozone benchmark 10-year German bond yield fell more than 6 basis points to 2.43% at the end of the session, hitting a new low of more than three months, and the two-year yield fell by more than 8 basis points to a low of nearly half a year. French, Italian, Spanish, and Greek base bond yields all fell 6 to 8 basis points, while 10-year British bond yields fell about 8 basis points and fell for three consecutive days.
Oil prices rose about 2% for two consecutive days to a new high in the past two weeks, and European gas fell by more than 7% to its lowest level in more than seven weeks
Despite the increase in US crude oil and refined oil inventories last week, supply disruptions caused by the Black Sea storm and news of the OPEC+ Thursday meeting or deepening production cuts all caused oil prices to rise by about 2% for two consecutive days.
WTI crude oil futures for January closed up $1.45, or nearly 1.90%, at $77.86 per barrel. Brent futures for January closed up $1.42, or nearly 1.74%, to $83.10 per barrel.
USOIL's WTI rose as high as 1.68 US dollars or 2.2%. At one point, it rose above 78 US dollars, rising to a high level of two days to more than a week. Futures for Brent, which are more actively traded, rose as high as 1.52 US dollars or 1.9% for February next year, and the daily high was pushed to a two-week intraday high of 83 US dollars.
According to the media, OPEC+ is considering implementing new oil production reduction measures and is considering cutting production by up to 1 million b/d. Relevant decisions may be announced at the Thursday meeting. Earlier, some analysts said that if OPEC+ postpones the meeting again due to difficulties in negotiations, it will lower oil prices.
Last week, US EIA commercial crude oil inventories exceeded expectations and increased by 1.61 million barrels for six weeks. Gasoline inventories did not fall but rose and increased by 1.76 million barrels. Refined oil inventories, including diesel and heating oil, did not fall but rose, surging by 5.21 million barrels.
But a severe storm in the Black Sea region has interrupted Kazakhstan and Russia's oil exports of up to 2 million barrels per day, increasing the possibility of short-term supply constraints. On Monday, the average daily oil production of Kazakhstan's largest oil field will drop by 56%.
TTF Dutch gas futures, the European benchmark, fell 7.3%, falling below 40 EUR/MWH, breaking a new low of more than seven weeks since the beginning of October. ICE UK futures fell close to 7% and fell to the 100p/kcal integer. The EU carbon tax hit a new low of more than a year for many days and fell to the 70 euro mark. At one point, US natural gas fell close to 3%, hovering at a two-month low. Forecasts relating to warm weather weakened expectations of heating demand.
The US dollar turned positive and broke away from its lowest level in three and a half months, and the offshore renminbi once peaked at 7.11 yuan to the highest level in the past four months
The DXY index, which measures a basket of US dollars against six major currencies, rose above the 103 mark, stopped falling for four days and broke away from its lowest level in three and a half months since August 11.
However, the US dollar index fell 3.7% in November, which will be the worst monthly performance in a year since it fell 5% in November last year, mainly due to rising market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in the first half of next year.
The cooling of inflation caused the euro to fall below 1.10. Yesterday, it broke through this mark for the first time since August, and hit the highest level since August 10 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The pound once climbed back to 1.27, setting a new three-month high since the end of August.
The yen once rose above a new high of more than 1472 against the US dollar, and the intraday gains in US stocks narrowed to 147.30. At one point, the offshore renminbi peaked at 7.11 yuan to its highest level in nearly half a year, up 200 points from the previous day's closing high. The US stock market declined in the middle of the day and returned to 7.14 yuan. New Zealand's New Zealand dollar once rose 1% to its highest level in nearly four months. The country's central bank maintained interest rates at a 15-year high for the fourth time in a row, and warned that interest rates would be raised further.
Betting on interest rate cuts pushed gold to remain stable at a seven-month high. Futures pushed $2,070, and Renniel rose more than 2% to break away from a three-year low
The market is betting that the Fed has raised interest rates, and that the dollar and US bond yields have been falling together to favor the price of gold for many consecutive days.
COMEX February gold futures closed up 0.33% to $2067.10 per ounce, rising to a new high of more than half a year since the beginning of May for five consecutive years. COMEX March silver futures rose 0.56% to 25.443 US dollars/ounce, a new high in nearly three months.
Spot gold rose 0.5% as high as 0.5% and once rose above the integer level of 2,050 US dollars. It has been rising continuously for the past seven months since the beginning of May, and has continued to approach an all-time high of more than 2,080 US dollars. UBS expects the price of gold to rise to a record high of $2,150 next year.
Affected by an earlier rebound in the US dollar, most of London's industrial base metals closed down. The economic weather vane “Dr. Copper” fell 0.7% and remained stable above the 8,400 US dollar mark. Last week, it hit 8,486 US dollars, the highest in more than two months.
Lun zinc fell 1.4% and fell to 2,500 US dollars, and both hovered at a one-week low, and Lun lead was further away from the highest level since May last year. Renkel, which rose more than 4% yesterday, rose more than 2%, rising above 17,000 US dollars and rebounded for two days from a three-year low. Renxi rose two days in a row from an eight-month low.
Furthermore, the Shanghai nickel market closed up more than 3% for two consecutive days, stainless steel rose more than 1.2% for two consecutive days, but alumina fell by more than 1.2%. The data shows that since this year, LME nickel prices have fallen by 43% and Shanghai nickel has fallen by 36%, both of which have performed the worst among basic metals in the two exchanges.