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美股前瞻 | 对冲基金大佬Ackman押注美联储最快明年一季度降息;B站盘前跌超4%,Q3经调整净亏损同比收窄51%

US stock outlook | Hedge fund boss Ackman bets that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year as soon as possible; Station B fell more than 4% before the market, and Q3 adjusted net losses narrowed 51% year on year

Futu News ·  11/29/2023 21:21

Global macroscopic

  • Before Wednesday's market, the three major futures indices of the US stock market rose collectively

The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States was 5.2%, a new high since the fourth quarter of 2021. The forecast is 5%, and the initial value is 4.9%.

  • Ackman said again: I don't believe in America's “soft landing”; I bet the Fed will cut interest rates as soon as the first quarter of next year

On Tuesday EST, Bill Ackman, a well-known Wall Street investor and founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, bet that the Fed may start cutting interest rates earlier than the market generally expects, and may even cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year. Ackman said that if the Fed continues to keep interest rates within the range of about 5.5% when the inflation trend falls below 3%, this will be a “very high real interest rate.”

  • Bank of America: Central banks around the world may cut interest rates in the middle of the year, and the S&P 500 is expected to reach 5,000 points by the end of the year

In a newly released research report, a team of economists and strategists from Bank of America's Global Research Department predicts that European and American inflation will continue to decline, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will begin cutting interest rates in the middle of the year, and the Bank of America judges that the US economy can finally achieve a soft landing and avoid recession; corporate EPS will accelerate growth, and the S&P 500 is expected to reach 5,000 points by the end of next year.

  • S&P Global: The FED may carry out the “Ultimate One Plus” next month, then quickly switch to interest rate cuts next year

S&P Global Ratings believes that the Fed's interest rate hike journey may not be over yet. The agency expects to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. The agency predicted on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may carry out an “ultimate rate hike” next month due to the weakening role of US Treasury yields in tightening the financial environment.

  • CEO of Komo criticizes the “debt crisis”: America is already addicted, and inflation will not go away

J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that the US is actually already addicted to debt, which puts the US economy at risk. He pointed out that since the outbreak of the epidemic, the US has been burdened with huge debts, including about 1 trillion US dollars in stimulus checks and 4 trillion US dollars used by the Federal Reserve to buy government bonds. Following a debt-fueled stimulus package, the US experienced severe inflation, which prompted the Federal Reserve to put the brakes on ultra-loose monetary policy.

  • Investment research company: S&P 500 soon collapsed, comparable to the 2008 crisis!

According to data from BCA Research, a global investment research agency, the stock market may plummet by more than 25% next year due to the impact of long-term high interest rates on economic activity and eventually plunged the US into recession. Strategists expect that when the economy finally falls into a slump, the S&P 500 index may fall to a low of 3,300 points, which means the index will fall 27% from its current level. This large decline would be the worst year for investors since 2008, when the benchmark index plummeted 38% after the financial crisis broke out in 2008.

  • Auto dealers across the US sent a letter to Biden: Electric cars have piled up like mountains in warehouses!

A coalition of more than 3,000 car dealers across the US sent an open letter to Biden on Tuesday, calling on him to put the brakes on electric vehicle promotion policies. The coalition notes that electric vehicles will be an ideal choice for many, and their appeal will grow over time. However, the reality is that the current demand for electric vehicles cannot keep up with the speed at which they are pouring into dealerships, which has caused electric vehicles to pile up like a mountain at dealers.

  • OPEC+ Meeting Allegedly Won't Be Further Postponed

Last week, OPEC announced on its official website that the 187th OPEC General Meeting, the 51st Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting, and the 36th OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM), which were originally scheduled to be held from November 25 to 26, have been postponed until November 30. On Tuesday, news broke in the media that the meeting may be further postponed because member states insist on their positions, making negotiations very difficult. However, according to the latest news, the meeting will not be further postponed.

Hot news

  • The majority of Star Technology stocks were higher before the market

  • OpenAI: Board seats are not intended for Microsoft or other investors

On November 28, local time, according to the latest media reports, OpenAI's restructured board of directors does not plan to recruit representatives from outside investors.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Investors such as, Khosla Ventures, Thrive Capital, and Sequoia Capital are not expected to gain seats on the new board of directors. When the new board of directors of OpenAI was restructured, only 3 external directors were appointed, and everyone is speculating who the remaining 6 seats will go to. Some analysts believe that this move shows that the board of directors will prioritize safety measures rather than investor returns. As of press release, Microsoft has risen slightly before the press release.

  • The “honeymoon” between Apple and Goldman Sachs has not been long, but it has already broken down! The two parties will end their credit card partnership

According to media reports on Tuesday,$Apple (AAPL.US)$Credit card business cooperation with Goldman Sachs Group will be terminated. People familiar with the matter revealed to the media that the tech giant recently submitted a proposal report to Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs, saying it hopes to withdraw from the business cooperation within the next 12 to 15 months. The person familiar with the matter also added that Apple's exit will cover the overall cooperation between the two parties in the consumer business. In addition to credit cards, it also includes savings accounts launched this year. As of press release, Apple declined slightly before the market.

  • The feast is over! Analyst: Stop expecting Nvidia to continue to soar

Edward Jones analyst Logan Purk will last week$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The rating was downgraded to “neutral,” and he wrote, “Since demand for Nvidia chips is extremely strong, market share is huge, and there are no real alternatives for its products, we think the company is experiencing a peak in demand, but it is more challenging for the company to continue to exceed expectations and push the stock price to rise sharply.” As of press release, Nvidia is up close to 1% in the premarket.

  • In response to “Cyber Monday,” AI helps Amazon logistics be safer and more efficient

Talking about the role of AI in logistics,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Scot Hamilton, vice president of planning technology responsible for last-mile delivery, stated: “Cyber Monday” is our Super Bowl, we've been training for a few months, and artificial intelligence has helped us do everything before and during this day. Although AI can't see or feel, it's as essential as oxygen. When you don't realize it exists, it means it's working perfectly. As of press release, Amazon rose slightly in the pre-market period.

  • Gaming Station rose nearly 10% before the market, and traders bet its stock price would skyrocket by 50%

Because traders are betting$GameStop (GME.US)$Shares will rise 50% in a little over a week. Yesterday, the company's options trading was extremely active, with a total trading volume of more than 172,000. Among them, the volume of call options was 144,000, the number of put options was 28,000, and the P/C ratio reached 0.193. Piper Sandler's options owner Danny Kirsch said 140,000 game stations changed hands on Tuesday, compared to an average of 30,000 over the past 20 days. The deal is reminiscent of the MEME boom, although much smaller, and believes the stock is unlikely to soar again like during the COVID-19 lockdown. As of press release, Gaming Station rose nearly 10% in the pre-market period.

  • GM rose more than 9% in the pre-market, resumed full-year performance guidelines, and plans to set up a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase plan

$General Motors (GM.US)$Resuming the results guidelines for the full year of 2023, the estimated operating profit is US$11.7 billion to US$12.7 billion. The company also announced a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase plan and plans to increase its common stock dividend by 33% starting with the January 2024 announcement. As of press release, GM surged more than 9% in the pre-market period.

  • Workday rose more than 8% in the pre-market, Q3 total revenue increased 16.7% year on year, and raised the full-year subscription revenue outlook

Finance and HR Enterprise Cloud Company$Workday (WDAY.US)$Total revenue for Q3 was US$1,866 million, up 16.7% year on year; net profit was US$114 million, up 252.18% year on year. Workday Chief Financial Officer Zane Rowe said, “Following our continued momentum in the third quarter, we raised our fiscal year 2024 subscription revenue guidance target to $6.598 billion, up 19% year over year.” As of press release, Workday rose more than 8% in the pre-market period.

Focus on China Securities

  • Popular Chinese securities stocks generally declined before the market

  • Bilibili Q3 adjusted net loss of 864 million yuan, a year-on-year narrowing of 51%

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$Total net turnover for Q3 was 5.8 billion yuan, the same year on year; net loss was 1.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22% year on year; adjusted net loss was 864 million yuan, a decrease of 51% year on year; and daily active users were 103 million yuan, up 14% year on year. As of press release, Bilibili was down more than 4% before the market.

  • Ma Yun's rare speech: Ali will change, Ali will change

Jack Ma is replying$Alibaba (BABA.US)$The employee's post on Pinduoduo's market value said, “Please give us more constructive comments and suggestions. Especially innovative ideas. I believe everyone in Ali today is watching and listening. I am even more convinced that Ali will change, and Ali will change. All great companies are born in the winter. The AI e-commerce era has just begun. It is both an opportunity and a challenge for everyone. As of press release, Alibaba was down more than 2% in the pre-market period.

  • Pinduoduo's overseas version of Temu is reported to be the Krypton Super Bowl for the second year in a row

According to industry sources, in February next year,$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$The overseas version of Temu may once again appear on the much-anticipated “Super Bowl” stage. Relevant sources familiar with the matter pointed out that Temu has promised to buy multiple ad units during the Super Bowl to be held on February 11 next year. The plan would be a huge ad spend for Temu. As of press release, Pinduoduo declined slightly before the market.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

21:30 Revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US

editor/tolk

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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