Is the internal conflict crisis still unresolved? The OPEC+ meeting may be postponed again! There was a sharp drop in news from the US and Brazil

Golden10 Data ·  11/28/2023 21:40

Analysts say oil prices may fall to this low point without further production cuts by OPEC+...

On Tuesday, four sources said that the OPEC+ negotiations are progressing in difficulty, that the meeting may be further delayed, and that the continuation of the current policy is a possibility. Delegates said that OPEC+ has yet to resolve the African output quota dispute. That's not good news for oil. After hearing news from the US and Brazil, the short-term dive was about $0.8.

Tamas Varga, a PVM analyst at brokerage firm PVM, said, “The oil market's attention this week will not escape the OPEC+ meeting. Unless there are any negative surprises, the recent price drop may be seen as a buying opportunity, especially if the coalition agrees to cut production further.”

However, foreign media reported on Monday, citing OPEC representatives, that Saudi Arabia is asking other countries in the OPEC+ coalition to reduce crude oil production quotas to support the global market, but some member states are boycotting it.

Crude oil prices have fallen by about one-fifth since the end of September due to sufficient supply and concerns about the global economic outlook, putting pressure on OPEC+. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned earlier this month that the market would return to surplus next year due to a sharp slowdown in demand growth.

According to a Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts late last week, about half of respondents expect OPEC+ to take further steps to tighten the market.

Analysts from Eurasia Group (Eurasia Group), led by Raad Alkadiri (Raad Alkadiri), said that if OPEC+ does not announce additional production cuts in Saudi Arabia by about 1 million b/d, oil prices may fall to a low of $70 per barrel.

The bullish sentiment of hedge funds on crude oil has weakened, which has also led to weakening oil prices. According to the latest weekly data from ICE Futures Europe (ICE Futures Europe) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as of November 21, fund managers reduced the combined net long positions of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil to the lowest level since the end of June. The oil options bias also suggests a bearish trend, and the much-publicized calendar spread has also narrowed.

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