Impairment measures dragged down overall performance, debt ratios remained stable, and maintained a “buy” rating. Goldland Group released a report for the third quarter of 2023. Revenue and net profit for the first three quarters were 52.30 billion yuan and 58.016 million yuan respectively. The year-on-year decrease was 1.5% and 98.3%, respectively. The company's gross settlement margin was 17.0%, down 3.5 percentage points from the previous year, a slight increase of 0.5 pct from 2023H1, and the debt ratio remained stable. Affected by the market downturn, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2023-2025. The estimated net profit for 2023-2025 was 40.1, 42.3, and 4.62 billion yuan (original values were 60.0, 63.1, and 6.73 billion yuan), EPS was 0.89, 0.94, and 1.02 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 6.1, 5.8, and 5.3 times, respectively. The company attaches importance to repayment efficiency and maintains financial stability to ensure operational safety. After the industry recovers, performance is expected to continue to recover and maintain a “buy” rating.
Land acquisition focuses on high-energy cities, and the overall commercial rental rate is stable
Affected by the market downturn, the company achieved sales volume and area of 121.93 billion yuan and 6.69 million square meters respectively in the first three quarters of 2023, down 25.2% and 5.3% year-on-year from 2022 (2023H1 was -14.7% and +12.4% respectively). The company's land acquisition continues to focus on high-energy cities. A total of 950,000 square meters of land storage was added in the first three quarters, with a total investment of 12.5 billion yuan. The 10 new plots are all located in Tier 1 and 2 cities. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company completed a total of 224.0 and 6.863 million square meters of new construction. The company's rental property performance was stable, achieving rent income of 2.32 billion yuan in the first three quarters, of which the overall rental rate for office buildings and businesses was 75%, up 2 percentage points from 2023H1. The overall occupancy rate of the industrial park was 81%, down 2 percentage points from 2023H1.
Cash on hand declined sharply, and debt ratio levels remained stable
As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the company had cash capital of 33.85 billion yuan on hand, a sharp drop of 12.23 billion yuan from the interim report level, mainly due to higher debt repayments in the third quarter. As of 2023Q3, the company's balance ratio was 72.1%, down 3.2 percentage points from the same period in 2022; the net debt ratio was 60.2%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous year, and the debt ratio remained stable. Among them, interest-bearing debt was 102.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%.
Operating cash flow is under pressure in the short term, and impairment measures are dragging down performance
The company's operating cash flow was under short-term pressure, and the company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2023 was -750 million yuan (2023H1 was 210 million yuan). The company's annual asset impairment reserves for the first three quarters were 1.60 billion yuan, of which credit and inventory impairment provisions were 730 million yuan and 870 million yuan respectively, reducing net profit of 1.44 billion yuan.
Affected by this, the company achieved net profit of 58.016 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 98.3%.
Risk warning: The sales recovery process is blocked, diversified business progress falls short of expectations, and the company's land acquisition falls short of expectations.