MOBVISTA INC.(1860.HK):MARGIN INTACT WITH TOPLINE ACCELERATION
MOBVISTA INC.(1860.HK):MARGIN INTACT WITH TOPLINE ACCELERATION
Mobvista's 3Q23 earnings was largely in-line, with revenue +26% YoY (2% below our estimates) and profit at US$4.1mn (in line with our estimates).
Mobvista的3Q3收益基本持平，收入同比增長26％（比我們的預期低2％），利潤爲410萬美元（與我們的估計一致）。
Mintegral's revenue accelerated to 28% YoY in 3Q23 (vs. +14% YoY in 2Q23), in which revenue mix of midcore and hardcore games climbed to 32% in 3Q23 (vs. 31% in 2Q23). For ROAS mode, it might take some time to see meaningful contribution from the in-app purchase feature. We expect margin enhancement to continue in FY24/25E (forecasting adj. NM at 2.6%/2.7%), backed by narrowing loss of Reyun and higher ads efficiency. We keep our earnings forecast in FY24/25E barely changed. Maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP at HK$6.0 (1.2x/1.0x FY23/24E P/S, or 37x FY24E P/E, with 41% earnings CAGR in FY23-25E).
Mintegral的收入在23年第三季度同比增長至28％（而23年第二季度同比增長14％），其中中核和硬核遊戲的收入結構在3季度攀升至32％（而23年第二季度爲31％）。對於 ROAS 模式，可能需要一些時間才能看到應用內購買功能的有意義貢獻。我們預計，利潤率將在24/25E財年繼續提高（經預測調整）NM 爲2.6％/2.7％），這得益於Reyun虧損的縮小和廣告效率的提高。我們對24/25財年的收益預測幾乎沒有變化。維持買入，基於 SOTP 的目標價爲 6.0 港元（1.2 倍/24 財年市盈率 1.0 倍，即 FY24E 市盈率的 37 倍，FY23-25E 的收益複合年增長率爲 41%）。
3Q23 earnings largely in-line. 3Q23 revenue accelerated to +26% YoY (vs. +11% YoY in 1H23), 2% below our estimates. By segment, ad-tech/mar- tech +25.8%/33.1% YoY. Adj. net profit reached US$4.1mn, largely in line with our estimates. GPM came at 20.6%, relatively stable QoQ. Adj. EBITDA was US$23.6mn, largely in-line.
2023年第三季度的收益基本持平。3Q3收入同比增長26％（而23年上半年同比增長11％），比我們的預期低2％。按細分市場劃分，廣告科技/營銷科技同比增長25.8％/33.1％。調整後的淨利潤達到410萬美元，與我們的估計基本一致。GPM爲20.6％，環比相對穩定。調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤爲2360萬美元，基本持平。
Higher revenue mix from midcore & hardcore game ahead, despiteslower ramp-up of ROAS. Mintegral's revenue accelerated to 28% YoY in 3Q23 (vs. +14% YoY in 2Q23), in which revenue mix of midcore and hardcore games climbed to 32% in 3Q23 (vs. 31% in 2Q23). For ROAS mode, ROAS intelligent bidding feature received market validation in 3Q23 and algorithm optimization is on track, but it might take some time to see meaningful contribution from its in-app purchase feature. To factor in lower revenue contribution from ROAS and google cooperation, we slightly cut our topline forecast by 5% in FY23-25E.
儘管ROAS增長較慢，但未來中核和硬核遊戲的收入組合仍將增加。Mintegral的收入在23年第三季度同比增長至28％（而23年第二季度同比增長14％），其中中核和硬核遊戲的收入組合在33年第三季度攀升至32％（而23年第二季度爲31％）。對於 ROAS 模式，ROAS 智能競價功能在 23 年第 3 季度獲得了市場驗證，算法優化已步入正軌，但可能需要一些時間才能看到其應用內購買功能的有意義貢獻。考慮到ROAS和谷歌合作的收入貢獻減少，我們在 FY23-25E 中將收入預測略微下調了5％。
Intact margin ahead. 3Q23 adj. NM reached 1.5% (vs. 1.7% in 2Q23).
未來利潤率保持不變。經23季度調整後新墨西哥州達到1.5％（而23年第二季度爲1.7％）。
Looking ahead, we expect margin enhancement to continue in FY24/25E (forecasting adj. NM at 2.6%/2.7%), backed by narrowing loss of Reyun and higher ads efficiency (with the continued application of cloud-native technologies). ROAS algorithm optimization might affect model training fee, but well managed. After margin adjustment, our earnings forecast in FY24/25E was barely changed.
展望未來，我們預計利潤率將在24/25財年繼續提高（預測調整後）NM 爲2.6％/2.7％），這得益於Reyun損失的縮小和廣告效率的提高（雲原生技術的持續應用）。ROAS 算法優化可能會影響模型訓練費用，但管理得很好。利潤率調整後，我們在24/25E財年的收益預測幾乎沒有變化。
Maintain BUY. We maintain FY24/25E earnings forecast unchanged, with new TP at HK$6.0 (by assigning 30x FY23E P/E to ad-tech biz and 3.3x FY23E P/S to mar-tech biz).
維持買入。我們維持24/25財年的收益預期不變，新目標爲6.0港元（通過爲廣告技術業務分配30倍的 FY23E 市盈率，爲營銷科技業務分配3.3倍的 FY23E 市盈率）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。