The company released its three-quarter report for 2023: In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 2,746 billion yuan, an increase of 14.85% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 387 million yuan, an increase of 22.86% over the previous year, and net profit after deducting non-return to the parent company was 374 million yuan, an increase of 19.62% over the previous year.
Comment:
Revenue growth was in line with expectations, and gross margin increased year over year. Among them, 23Q3 achieved revenue of 1,012 billion yuan, an increase of 0.18% over the previous year; realized net profit of 139 million yuan, an increase of 6.33% over the previous year; and achieved net profit of 137 million yuan after deducting non-return net profit. 23Q3 Company achieved a gross profit margin of 23.69%, 0.64pct over the previous year, -2.96pct; realized a net profit margin of 13.71%, 0.76pct over the previous year, and -1.85pct month-on-month. Split the cost ratio. In the first three quarters of 23 years, the company achieved a sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratio of 0.29%/2.62%/4.04%/-0.29%.
Tesla and ideal core suppliers have an excellent customer structure. The company's top two customers are Tesla and Ideal. Tesla accounted for 47.2% of revenue in '22 and 11.6% of ideal revenue in '22.
The company is tied to leading new energy vehicle companies, benefiting from rising sales among major customers, and revenue is expected to grow rapidly.
The layout is integrated die-cast, and incremental space can be expected. The company has set up four integrated die-casting production lines in Yancheng and Lu'an. Yancheng Duoli's 6,100-ton integrated die-casting production line was mass-produced in 22Q4, and 9200 tons were installed and commissioned. Two 6,100-ton integrated die-casting production lines in Daya, Anhui are also in the installation stage. At the same time, the company plans to invest in an integrated die-casting project in Jintan. On September 8, the company issued an announcement. Recently, it received a specific letter of intent from a leading domestic NEV manufacturer confirming that Kunshan Daya is the supplier of rear floor castings for the customer's project, providing them with integrated die-cast rear floor components. Mass production of the above projects is expected to begin in 2025, and the estimated total sales amount during the life cycle is about 21-2.3 billion yuan. It is expected that in 2025, the revenue scale of the company's integrated die-casting business will be gradually released.
Investment advice: The company has an excellent customer structure, benefiting from integrated die casting, creating a long-term curve.
The estimated revenue for 2023-2025 is 40.6/49.0 billion yuan, and the corresponding net profit is 5.3/65/770 million yuan. The current market value corresponding to 2023-2025 PE is 16.8/13.8/11.6, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials are rising, production capacity is falling short of expectations, customer expansion falls short of expectations, and sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations.