Jiumuwang (601566): Q3 main brands had impressive offline growth, and falling inventory prices were a drag

浙商證券 · Nov 7, 2023 00:00

投资要点

Q3 收入双位数增长，资产减值损失拖累利润23Q1-Q3 实现收入21.38 亿元（+9.6%），归母净利润0.96 亿元（扭亏为盈），扣非后归母净利润1.45 亿元（+174%）；单Q3 收入7.37 亿元（+11.0%），归母净利润386 万元（扭亏为盈），扣非后归母净利润643 万元（+194%），利润低于预期主要系Q3 计提资产减值损失1.55 亿元（去年同期为1.21 亿元）。

主品牌持续拓大店关小店，线上增速短暂承压分品牌看：Q3 主品牌收入6.72 亿元（+13.5%），直营/加盟店较年初+85/-110 家至654/1525 家（其中净开33/-58 家，另有52 家加盟店收回转直营），直营/加盟单店面积较年初+11%/2%至155/160 平方；Q3 子品牌ZIOZIA/FUN 收入0.20/0.34 亿元（+8.4%/-14.3%），FUN 下滑较大主要系持续进行渠道优化（直营/加盟店年内净关12/12 家至59/50 家）。

分渠道看：23Q3 加盟/直营/线上收入4.38/2.05/0.54 亿元，同比+11.6%/+28.7%/-13.6%，直营亮眼增速来自持续拓大店+店效复苏；线上Q3 增速承压，我们预计系由于电商平台流量下降、竞争加剧，而公司在折扣及营销力度上较为克制。

毛利率提升+销售费用率下降，存货减值拖累较大23Q3 毛利率62.9%（+3.1pp），主要由加盟同比+7.4pp 驱动，而直营/线上同比-8.7/-2.4pp，我们预计系季末出清夏季产品导致的季节性波动，从前三季度来看，直营/线上毛利率同比基本持平。

前三季度期间费用率44.2%（-4.5pp），其中销售费用率34.9%（-2.6pp），我们预计得益于营销投入精细化及收入增长后的自然摊薄；财务费用率-0.1%（-1.2pp），主要得益于货币资金增加后的利息收入增加。

23Q3 资产减值损失1.55 亿元（去年同期为1.21 亿元）对净利润产生拖累，我们预计主要来自52 家加盟店收回转直营，以及夏季产品过季后计提的存货减值损失。23Q3 投资收益-809 万元（包括投资净收益+公允价值变动损益），较22Q3的-6651 万元的亏损有所收窄。

盈利预测与投资建议：

公司持续深化 “男裤专家”战略变革，产品力、品牌力、渠道力提升成效突出，在有效的折扣及费用控制下，经营正向杠杆有望带来业绩高弹性；同时公司计划择机出售金融资产、回归主业，业绩波动性有望降低。

预计公司23-25 年实现收入29.8/34.2/38.8 亿元，同比增长14%/15%/14%；实现归母净利润1.9/3.4/4.2 亿元，同比扭亏为盈/+82%/+23%，对应PE 31/17/14 倍，考虑到公司业绩弹性较大，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：品牌营销效果不及预期；十代店店效提升不及预期

Key points of investment

Q3 revenue grew in double digits. Asset impairment losses dragged down profit 23Q1-Q3 to achieve revenue of 2.138 billion yuan (+9.6%), net profit of 96 million yuan (turning loss into profit), net profit of 145 million yuan (+174%) after deduction of net profit of 145 million yuan (+174%); single Q3 revenue of 737 million yuan (+11.0%), net profit of 3.86 million yuan (+194%), net profit of 6.43 million yuan (+194%) after deduction of net profit of 6.43 million yuan (+194%). Profit was mainly due to Q3 calculated asset impairment losses of 1.55 million yuan (+194%) for the same period last year (1.55 million yuan). 1.21 100 million yuan).

The main brand continues to expand stores and close small stores. The online growth rate is temporarily under pressure. By brand: Q3 main brand revenue was 672 million yuan (+13.5%), direct-operated/franchise stores increased by +85/-110 at the beginning of the year to 654/1525 (of which 33/-58 were net opened, and 52 franchise stores withdrew to direct management). The area of directly/franchise stores was +11%/2% compared to the beginning of the year to 155/160 square meters; Q3 sub-brand ZIOZIA/FUN revenue was 0.20/034 million yuan (+8.4%/-14.3%), FUN, The major decline was mainly due to continued channel optimization (net sales of directly/franchise stores from 12/12 to 59/50 during the year).

By channel: 23Q3 franchise/direct-operation/online revenue was 4.38/2.05/54 million yuan, +11.6%/+28.7%/-13.6% over the same period last year. The impressive growth rate of direct sales comes from continued expansion of stores and recovery in store efficiency; the online Q3 growth rate is under pressure. We expect that due to declining e-commerce platform traffic and increased competition, the company is more restrained in terms of discounts and marketing efforts.

The increase in gross margin and the decline in the sales expenses ratio. Inventory impairment dragged down the 23Q3 gross profit margin of 62.9% (+3.1 pp), mainly driven by franchise year +7.4 pp year on year, while direct-operation/online sales ratio -8.7/-2.4 pp. We expect seasonal fluctuations caused by the release of summer products at the end of the quarter. Judging from the previous three quarters, direct-operation/online gross margin was basically the same year on year.

The expense ratio for the first three quarters was 44.2% (-4.5pp), of which the sales expense ratio was 34.9% (-2.6pp). We expect to benefit from the refinement of marketing investment and natural dilution after revenue growth; the financial expense ratio is -0.1% (-1.2pp), mainly due to the increase in interest income after the increase in monetary capital.

The loss of $155 million in asset impairment in 23Q3 ($121 million in the same period last year) dragged down net profit. We expect mainly from 52 franchise stores taking back and switching to direct management, as well as inventory impairment losses for summer products after the end of the season. 23Q3 investment income - 8.09 million yuan (including net investment income plus profit and loss from changes in fair value), which is narrower than the loss of -66.51 million yuan in 22Q3.

Profit forecasts and investment suggestions:

The company continues to deepen the strategic transformation of “men's pants experts”, and has achieved outstanding results in improving product power, brand power, and channel power. Under effective discounts and cost control, positive operating leverage is expected to bring high performance flexibility; at the same time, the company plans to sell financial assets and return to the main business, and performance volatility is expected to decrease.

The company is expected to achieve revenue of 29.8/34.2/3.88 billion yuan in 23-25, a year-on-year increase of 14%/15%/14%, and realized net profit of 1.9/3.4/4.2 billion yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into profit/ +82%/+23%, corresponding to PE 31/17/14 times, maintaining a “buy” rating considering the company's high performance elasticity.

Risk warning: brand marketing results fall short of expectations; store efficiency improvements in teenage stores fall short of expectations

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九牧王(601566)：Q3主品牌线下增长亮眼 存货跌价产生拖累

Jiumuwang (601566): Q3 main brands had impressive offline growth, and falling inventory prices were a drag

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九牧王(601566)：Q3主品牌线下增长亮眼存货跌价产生拖累