上海泰和项目计提信用减值损失，致2023Q3 业绩承压。2023Q3 公司归母净利润为-2423.13 万元，较去年同期盈转亏，主要原因系计提应收账款准备金额较大。截至2023 年9 月30 日，公司应收账款账面余额为19264.61 万元，坏账准备为7105.33 万元，其中2023Q3 计提信用减值损失2429.26 万元，主要系上海泰和污水处理厂污泥脱水干化项目的应收账款账龄由2-3 年滚动至3 年以上，坏账比例由30%变为100%。上海泰和项目属于政府投资建设的市政项目，自2022 年以来受到政府财政状况收紧影响，收款进度滞后，导致应收账款账龄增加，该项目业主方为上海城投水务，信誉水平和偿债能力较好，未来发生坏账的可能性较低。Event: The company released its three-quarter report for 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 351 million yuan, -28.57%; realized net profit of 23 million yuan, -67.28%; achieved gross margine/net profit margin of 35.63%/6.54%, respectively, +3.75pct/-7.74pct. On a quarterly basis, 2023Q3 achieved operating income of 50 million yuan, or -77.96% year-on-year; net profit of net income of 24 million yuan, compared to +39 million yuan in the same period in 2022.
2023Q3's new orders and order confirmations fell short of expectations, and revenue was under pressure due to high revenue levels in the same period last year.
The company's revenue for the third quarter fell 77.96% year on year, mainly because the revenue for the same period last year was at a record high. Among them, the Zhuyuan Sewage Treatment Plant Phase IV project achieved revenue of 106 million yuan in the same period in 2022, and 2023Q3 achieved revenue of 4.69 million yuan. The project is currently promoting overall handover and completion inspection; the Laogang temporary sludge treatment service project achieved revenue of 99 million yuan in the same period in 2022, and the project was completed in 2023Q1. At the same time, 2023Q3 was affected by the progress of some projects and the bidding progress of key projects. The progress of signing new orders and revenue confirmation fell short of expectations.
The Shanghai Taihe Project calculated credit impairment losses, putting pressure on 2023Q3 performance. The net profit of 2023Q3 was -24.2313 million yuan, compared to profit and loss in the same period last year. The main reason was the large amount of accrued accounts receivable prepared. As of September 30, 2023, the company's accounts receivable book balance was 192.4661 million yuan, and bad debt preparations were 71.053 million yuan, of which credit impairment losses accrued in 2023Q3 were 24.2926 million yuan. Mainly, the accounts receivable for the Shanghai Taihe Sewage Treatment Plant sludge dewatering and drying project rolled over 2 to 3 years, and the bad debt ratio changed from 30% to 100%. The Shanghai Taihe Project is a municipal project invested and constructed by the government. Since 2022, it has been affected by the tightening of the government's financial situation, and collection progress has been delayed, leading to an increase in accounts receivable. The owner of the project is Shanghai City Investment Water. The credit level and solvency of the project are good, and the possibility of bad debts in the future is low.
It is planned to establish a hydrogen energy business operator in Shanghai to promote deep coupling between hydrogen storage technology and existing technology.
On July 11, 2023, the company announced that it signed a “Supplementary Agreement to the Equity Investment Agreement” with Bolu Hydrogen Energy to establish a hydrogen energy business operator in Shanghai to further concentrate superior resources and accelerate the implementation of hydrogen storage technology projects. Bolu Hydrogen Energy is committed to the development and design of safe and efficient hydrogen storage materials and hydrogen storage devices, development of hydrogen storage device operation management systems, and application promotion of hydrogen storage materials. In the future, the company plans to deeply couple the company's safe hydrogen storage technology with the company's sludge treatment, exhaust gas purification, high-temperature water source heat pump and other technologies to form comprehensive utilization and overall solutions.
Profit forecast: Maintaining the company's “excess holdings” rating. Based on the company's actual business situation, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. The estimated operating income for 2023-2025 is 4.76/5.41/619 billion yuan (previous value was 9.07/10.30/1,179 billion yuan), net profit of 0.54/0.99/119 million yuan (previous value was 1.63/1.94/233 million yuan), corresponding to PE of 37.27x/20.26x/16.85x, respectively.
Risk warning: changes in the domestic and foreign macroeconomic situation have exceeded expectations, technology and product competitiveness have fallen short of expectations, order acquisition and business expansion have fallen short of expectations, and profit forecasts and valuation models have fallen short of expectations
