Description of the event

Xiamen Xiangyu disclosed the three-quarter report for 2023: in the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 368.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%; realized net profit of 1.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.5%; in the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 135.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and net profit of 290 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.6%.

Incident comments

Demand for commodities is insufficient, and Q3 performance continues to be under pressure. 23Q1-3, domestic and foreign demand is insufficient, commodity prices are declining overall, downstream customer demand and profitability are under pressure, and the company's gross profit from commodity operations has declined. In 23Q1-3, the company's operating income fell 5.9% year on year to 368.63 billion yuan, and net profit was reduced by 46.5% year on year to 1.18 billion yuan. In 23Q3, the company's operating income fell 1.8% year on year to 135.09 billion yuan, and net profit fell 64.6% year on year to 290 million yuan, mainly due to: 1) the agricultural sector continued to lose more than expected due to: 1) the agricultural sector continued to lose more than expected due to mismatched procurement and marketing rhythms; 2) Q3 estimated credit impairment losses of 100 million yuan; 3) the company and manufacturing customers shared the downward pressure on the market during the downturn in the industry cycle, and current gross margin declined.

Commodity prices improved month-on-month, and the inflection point of active stock replenishment was approaching. In 2023Q3, the Nanhua Metal/Energy/Agricultural Products Index was +16.3%/+1.6%/+3.7% year-on-year, up 5.3%/10.1%/9.7%, respectively. Commodity unit prices improved month-on-month under a weak recovery in demand. Along with the gradual elimination of upstream inventories, in August, China's nominal inventory of finished industrial products and actual inventory growth rates were 2.4%/5.6%, respectively. The actual inventory growth rate continued to decline month-on-month, and the inflection point of active inventory replenishment was approaching.

Accelerate the international layout and open up the “second curve”. The company actively promotes international business layout, strengthens capacity building for international routes and international train operations, and constructs channels such as the China-Indonesia logistics channel (2023H1 achieves a traffic volume of more than 7 million tons on the China-Indonesia route), the China-Vietnam & Thailand logistics channel, and the China-Europe train two-way transport channel, forming an international multimodal transport service network. 2023H1, the company's total international business was about US$15.5 billion, an increase of 41% over the previous year, of which total imports were nearly US$10 billion, an increase of 50% over the previous year. The company is developing rapidly in Mongolian coal imports, bauxite imports, crude oil imports, etc., and international business is expected to become the company's second growth curve.

The increase in shareholders' holdings shows confidence, and the dividend rate is attractive. The controlling shareholder, Xiangyu Group, plans to increase its holdings of the company's shares through centralized bidding trading through the Shanghai Stock Exchange trading system within 3 months from October 31, 2023. The total increase in holdings is not less than 150 million yuan, not more than 200 million yuan, and the increase price is no more than 8 yuan/share, demonstrating confidence in future long-term development. As upstream commodity inventories are removed, the industry is gradually entering a replenishment cycle. At the same time, economic expectations are gradually warming, which is expected to drive a recovery in commodity demand. The company's net profit from 2023-2025 is estimated to be 16.4/25.4/3.18 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 8.9/5.8/4.6X, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning

1. Commodity prices fluctuate greatly;

2. Supply chain business operation risks;

3. Risk of exchange rate fluctuations.