Core views:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2023. In 2023, Q1-Q3 companies achieved total operating income of 4.378 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.15%; net profit of 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.47%; and gross margin/net profit/ROE (dilution) of 6.89%/3.80%/9.02%, respectively, +0.58/-0.43/-4.21pct year-on-year. In 23Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1,605 billion yuan, an increase of 11.35% over the previous year; net profit of the mother was 49.91 million yuan, down 29.69% year on year and 0.39% month on month.
23Q3 The price spread of nylon chips, the company's main product, declined month-on-month, and production and sales increased month-on-month. The Tengzhou base continued to contribute growth and expand production capacity through the acquisition of Hunan Jinbo. According to the company's business data announcement, 23Q3's nylon slice production volume was 124,000 tons, +12,000 tons, and sales volume was 127,000 tons, with sales volume of 127,000 tons, compared to 60,000 tons; 23Q3 nylon slice/caprolactam prices were +2.10%/+2.78% month-on-month, respectively, with a price difference of -3.44% month-on-month. The first phase of 180,000 tons in the Tengzhou plant where JuShun Lu Chemical is located was put into trial operation in 22Q4, and production capacity continued to be released in 23 years. On September 19, the company announced that it obtained assets related to Hunan Jinbo in an auction of 79.33 million yuan. Recently, the wholly-owned subsidiary Changde Juishun signed a lease contract with Jinbo (70,000 tons of nylon 6 production capacity); on October 31, the company plans to increase the capital of Changde Jueshun by 150 million yuan with its own capital to enhance its operating capacity.
Multiple projects go hand in hand to ensure long-term growth. As of 23Q3, the company's projects under construction were 404 million yuan, with a ratio of 54% to fixed assets; according to the company report, new construction projects such as the Polymerization Division's new nylon material project (the first phase of 124,000 tons is expected to be put into operation in 24 years, project progress is 3%, total 168,000 tons), Shandong Huishun PA66 project (the first phase of 80,000 tons is expected to be put into operation in 25 years, project progress is 6%, total 500,000 tons), and other new construction projects were put into operation, the company's market size and production capacity The share will be fast Improve.
Profit forecasts and investment advice. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.64/0.92/1.46 yuan/share in 23-25, respectively. Considering the low level of the company's product boom and future product growth, the company was given a PE valuation of 15 times its 24-year performance, corresponding to a reasonable value of 13.78 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Demand for nylon has declined; raw material prices have fluctuated greatly; production progress has fallen short of expectations; production safety incidents.