Results for the first three quarters showed strong resilience, and profitability was under pressure. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 7.490 billion yuan (+18.04% yoy), net profit of 1,031 billion yuan (-1.21% yoy), net profit of 752 million yuan (-22.84% yoy), net profit margin of 19.67% (y-6.47pct.) , net profit margin after deducting non-sales was 10.03% (year-on-year -5.32pct.).
The power generation and wind turbine business was under pressure in the short term, and the results for the third quarter declined significantly from the same period last month. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 3,575 billion yuan (+58.03%, +52.07% month-on-month), net profit of 214 million yuan (-12.89%, month-on-month, -36.07%), deducted non-net profit of 68 million yuan (-71.20%, -75.44% month-on-month), and a gross sales margin of 14.90% (y-9.63pct year-on-year). , -5.82pct month-on-month.) , net profit margin of 5.98% (year-on-year -4.86pct. , -8.24pct month-on-month.). The company's non-recurring profit and loss in the third quarter mainly came from government subsidies. In the power generation business, the third quarter is the traditional low season for wind, and this year's situation is particularly prominent; in the fan business, the downward pressure on gross margin is strong due to the delivery of low price orders.
Shipments in the third quarter doubled from month to month, and the pace of power plant transfers affected performance in the short term. Since the third quarter, the downstream construction of onshore wind power has accelerated markedly. We estimate that the company's fan sales volume in the first three quarters was about 0.5/1.0/2.0 GW, respectively, and that shipments in the third quarter doubled sequentially. In terms of power plant development, the company adheres to a “rolling development” strategy. We estimate that the transfer capacity for the first three quarters was about 100/150/0MW, respectively. No transfers in the third quarter had a short-term impact on performance. As of the end of June 2023, the company's stock of wind farms has a capacity of 412 MW, and the capacity of the wind farm under construction is as high as 707 MW.
Large-scale development continues to lead the industry, and the overseas layout is progressing steadily. Recently, the company unveiled the world's largest onshore wind turbines -- the Sany Heavy Energy 15MW wind turbine and 13/16MW offshore wind turbine at the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference. The company's 15MW wind turbine continues to use the domestic pioneering double-box convertible engine cabin technology, which is consistent with the 919 platform unit, to reduce power generation losses while saving installation costs. Recently, CLP International and Sany Heavy Energy. The Samruk-Kanazawa Fund signed a tripartite cooperation agreement for the 1GW wind power+energy storage project in Kazakhstan. The company achieved a breakthrough in overseas orders in '22, and has delivered one after another this year, so future overseas performance can be expected.
Risk warning: The progress of domestic wind power construction falls short of expectations; the company's overseas market development falls short of expectations; and the price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply.
Investment advice: Maintain profit forecasts and maintain “increase holdings” ratings.
Net profit of 1,837/22.94/2,723 billion yuan is expected to be achieved in 2023-2025. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 20/16/13 times, respectively, maintaining the “increased holdings” rating.