SANY INTERNATIONAL(631.HK):WEAK REVENUE GROWTH IN THE PRICE; OVERSEAS GROWTH STORY STILL INTACT
SANY INTERNATIONAL(631.HK):WEAK REVENUE GROWTH IN THE PRICE; OVERSEAS GROWTH STORY STILL INTACT
Dragged by the weakness of major global peers, SANYI's share price has been weak since early Oct. Its share price was under further pressure yesterday (1 Nov) following the release of weaker-than-expected revenue growth (26% YoY) despite decent earnings growth (46% YoY) in 3Q23. We revise down our 2023E/24E/25E earnings forecast by 5%/9%/7% after factoring in lower sales growth of road header and CCMU. That said, we believe SANYI's growth story remains intact as new products in overseas such as large mining truck & Telescopic forklift (伸缩臂叉车) will help counter the potential downside of coal mining machinery. Our TP is revised down to HK$15.4, based on unchanged P/E of 19x (2023E earnings). We believe the risk is largely in the price and we see the current risk/reward profile attractive.
受全球主要同行疲軟的拖累，三一的股價自10月初以來一直疲軟。儘管23年第三季度收益增長良好（同比增長46％），但收入增長（同比增長26％）仍低於預期。昨日（11月1日），三一的股價承受了進一步的壓力。考慮到Road Header和CCMU的銷售增長放緩，我們將2023年E/24E/25E的收益預測下調了5％/9％/7％。話雖如此，我們相信三一的增長故事仍然完好無損，因爲大型採礦卡車和伸縮叉車（伸縮叉車）等海外新產品將有助於抵消煤礦機械的潛在不利影響。根據市盈率爲19倍（2023年度收益）不變，我們的目標下調至15.4港元。我們認爲風險主要在於價格，我們認爲當前的風險/回報狀況很有吸引力。
Reasons for the slowdown of revenue growth in 3Q23: Revenue in 3Q23 grew 26% YoY to RMB5bn (mining equipment: +9% to RMB2.9bn; logistics equipment: +10% to RMB1.5bn; oil & gas equipment: RMB520mn; emerging business: c.RMB100mn). Management explained that the slow growth of mining equipment was due to the delay of delivery of certain products including coal mining equipment (due to lower coal price versus last year) and wide-body truck (due to unfavourable weather condition).
23年第三季度收入增長放緩的原因：23年第三季度收入同比增長26％至50億元人民幣（採礦設備：增長9％，至29億元人民幣；物流設備：增長10％至15億元人民幣；石油和天然氣設備：5.2億元人民幣；新興業務：約1億元人民幣）。管理層解釋說，採礦設備增長緩慢是由於某些產品的交付延遲，包括煤炭開採設備（由於煤炭價格低於去年）和寬體卡車（由於天氣條件不利）。
Coal mining equipment. For road headers, we now forecast RMB2.6bn of revenue for the full year (-13% YoY), which has already taken into consideration of the weakness in 2H23E. We forecast roader header sales in 2024E will be largely stable, but with higher ASP thanks to more integrated models. For CCMU, we forecast 22% YoY growth for the full year as SANYI has continued to obtain new customers. In 2024E, management expects growth to accelerate with the potential contribution of electro hydraulic control.
煤炭開採設備。對於路標，我們現在預計全年收入爲26億元人民幣（同比下降13％），這已經考慮到了2H23E 的疲軟。我們預測，2024E年的敞篷車銷量將基本保持穩定，但由於車型更加集成，ASP將更高。對於CCMU，由於三一持續獲得新客戶，我們預計全年將同比增長22％。管理層預計，在2024E年，隨着電動液壓控制的潛在貢獻，增長將加速。
Mining trucks. For large mining trucks, we see potential upside as SANYI targets to achieve RMB1bn/2bn sales in 2023E/24E. For wide-body trucks, SANYI is expanding the sales of electric, large-size models. The mainstream models have already been moved to 70T from 60T, while 90T & 100T models have been launched in 4Q. Besides, electric models have been introduced to European customers.
礦用卡車。對於大型礦用卡車，我們看到了潛在的上行空間，因爲三一的目標是在2023年/24E年實現10億元/20億元人民幣的銷售額。在寬體卡車方面，三一正在擴大電動大尺寸車型的銷售。主流車型已經從60T轉移到70T，而90T和100T車型已在第四季度推出。此外，還向歐洲客戶推出了電動車型。
Telescopic forklift. SANYI maintains the target to achieve RMB950mn revenue (+4x YoY) in 2023E and RMB2bn in 2024E (+1x YoY).
伸縮式叉車。三一維持在2023年度實現9.5億元人民幣收入（同比增長4倍）和2024E年實現20億元人民幣（同比增長1倍）的目標。
Latest backlog: As at end Oct, total backlog stood at RMB11bn (similar to Aug). For CCMU, c.RMB1.9bn of orders will be postponed to 1Q24E.
最新積壓：截至10月底，積壓總額爲110億元人民幣（與8月類似）。對於CCMU，19億元人民幣的訂單將推遲到 1Q24E。
Major risk factors: (1) weakness in mining activities; (2) development of new products below expectation; and (3) rebound of raw material costs.
主要風險因素：（1）採礦活動疲軟；（2）新產品開發低於預期；（3）原材料成本反彈。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。