Shen Wan Hongyuan--Automobile Industry's 2019Q2 Fund Position Analysis: The overall share of holdings is historically low, parts positions have declined slightly, and the definitive leader is still the core preference [Industry Research]

申万宏源 · Jul 23, 2019 14:56

【研究报告内容摘要】

2019第二季度汽车重仓股市值占全部重仓股市值比为1.91%,环比减少0.39pct,仍处历史最低水平,其中零部件公司仓位下滑幅度相对较大。根据2008-2019Q2基金持仓规模分析,汽车股配置仓位自2018三季度以来一直处于小幅下降趋势,2019年二季度持仓占比处于底部。细分来看各子版块均有不同幅度下滑,其中汽车零部件行业持仓比重下滑幅度最多,二季度下滑0.25pct至1.14%。此外汽车整车行业占比0.67%,其他交运设备Ⅱ行业占0.01%,汽车服务Ⅱ行业占0.08%。

2019Q2汽车行业陆股通持股总市值达317亿元,同比-10%,环比-5%。陆股通持仓市值前20名变化不大,前五名稳定为上汽集团、福耀玻璃、潍柴动力、华域汽车和宇通客车。总体来看,2019年Q2陆股通持仓市值上升前三名为比亚迪(2.20亿元)、上汽集团(1.76亿元)、华域汽车(1.34亿元),下降幅度最大前三名为均胜电子(-3.42亿元)、威孚高科(-4.66亿元)和福耀玻璃(-11.38亿元)。

2019年第二季度,汽车行业基金重仓股排名前20标的名单相较上一季度变化不大,主要呈现为三个特点:①整车龙头持仓小幅上升,市场销量边际回暖、行业盈利修复预期下长城汽车持仓总市值较19年一季度环比上升8%。上汽集团仓位同样有小幅改善,持仓占重仓股比重回升至0.31%,江铃汽车仓位排名上升2位。②零部件公司除部分具有内生增长的公司(星宇股份)外均出现持仓下滑情况。受行业上半年整体低景气影响,零部件公司二季度盈利普遍下滑,仓位排名同样出现下降,如福耀玻璃、保隆科技、拓普集团等。③重卡产业链仓位出现下滑,比如潍柴动力持仓总市值为34亿,环比下滑20%,但仍维持汽车行业第2大基金重仓的排名。威孚高科、中国重汽排名也小幅下滑。此外,本季度仓位排名显著上升的还有自身具备确定性增长的公司,如星宇股份等。

核心资产偏好仍然显著,机构偏好确定性高的龙头,前五大基金重仓标的仓位环比上升2.4%。但由于增速低于市场平均水平,导致占重仓股总体权重小幅下滑。统计汽车行业前五大基金重仓标的可以发现,前五大标的持仓市值总量由19年一季度的149亿元上升至153亿元,增长幅度略低于市场平均水平,持股占重仓股总市值比重由1.50%小幅下滑至1.44%,但仍占整个汽车行业重仓股总市值的74.60%。

投资建议:

①零售有大约35-40万辆透支,预计在7-8月份消化,因此7-8月可能出现同比-30%、-4%的下滑。但自9月份开始同比转正,预计9-12月销量同比增速分别为3%、7%、13%、16%。

②7月批发数据即使按照环比持平,仍然可实现3%的正增长。行业复苏,批发转正过程中伴随折扣率下降,三季度利润表有望得到修复,继续推荐龙头公司华域汽车、星宇股份、上汽集团、爱柯迪、德赛西威。

核心风险:乘用车销量与折扣改善不及预期。

[summary of the research report]

In the second quarter of 2019, the market capitalization of automobile heavy positions accounted for 1.91% of all heavy positions in the stock market, with a month-on-month decrease in 0.39pct, still at an all-time low, with a relatively large decline in positions of spare parts companies. According to the analysis of the position size of the 2008-2019Q2 fund, the allocation position of automobile stocks has been in a slight downward trend since the third quarter of 2018, and the proportion of positions in the second quarter of 2019 is at the bottom. In terms of subdivision, each sub-block has declined in different degrees, of which the proportion of positions in the auto parts industry has declined the most, falling 0.25pct to 1.14% in the second quarter. In addition, the automobile industry accounts for 0.67%, other transportation equipment Ⅱ industry accounts for 0.01%, and automobile service Ⅱ industry accounts for 0.08%.

The total market capitalization of mainland shares in the 2019Q2 automobile industry reached 31.7 billion yuan,-10% year-on-year and-5% month-on-month. The market capitalization of the top 20 positions in Land shares has not changed much, and the top five are stable.SAIC Group、Fuyao Glass Industry Group、Weichai Power、Huayu AutomobileAndYutong Bus. Overall, the market capitalization of Q2 Lutong shares rose in the top three places in 2019BYD(220 million yuan), SAIC Group (176 million yuan), Huayu Automobile (134 million yuan), the top three declines wereAverage victory electron(- 342 million yuan),Weifu high-tech(- 466 million yuan) and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (- 1.138 billion yuan).

In the second quarter of 2019, compared with the previous quarter, the list of the top 20 stocks of automotive industry funds changed little, mainly showing three characteristics: the position of ① vehicle leader increased slightly, the marginal recovery of market sales, and the expected profit repair of the industry.Great Wall MotorThe total market value of the position increased by 8% compared with the first quarter of 1919. The position of SAIC also improved slightly, with the proportion of positions in heavy shares rebounding to 0.31%.Jiangling MotorsThe ranking of positions rose by 2 places. ② parts company except for some companies with endogenous growth (Xingyu co., Ltd.There has been a decline in positions outside. Affected by the overall downturn of the industry in the first half of the year, the profits of spare parts companies generally declined in the second quarter, and the position rankings also declined, such as Fuyao Glass Industry Group,Baolong Technology、Top GroupWait. ③ heavy truck industry chain positions have declined, such as Weichai Power's total market value of 3.4 billion, down 20% from the previous month, but still maintain the ranking of the second largest fund position in the automotive industry. Weifu Tech,China heavy truckThe rankings also slipped slightly. In addition, companies with their own deterministic growth, such as Xingyu shares, rose significantly this quarter.

Core asset preference is still significant, institutions prefer the leader with high certainty, and the positions of the top five funds rose 2.4% month-on-month. However, as the growth rate is lower than the market average, the overall weight of heavy stocks has declined slightly. According to the statistics of the top five funds in the automotive industry, it can be found that the total market value of the top five positions rose to 15.3 billion yuan from 14.9 billion yuan in the first quarter of 1919, slightly lower than the average market level. the proportion of holding shares in the total market value of heavy positions decreased slightly from 1.5% to 1.44%, but still accounted for 74.60% of the total market value of heavy stocks in the entire automobile industry.

Investment advice:

① retail has about 35-400000 overdrafts, which are expected to be absorbed in July-August, so there is likely to be a year-on-year decline of-30 per cent or-4 per cent in July-August. However, since September, sales are expected to grow by 3%, 7%, 13% and 16% respectively from September to December.

② wholesale data for July can still achieve positive growth of 3 per cent, even if they are flat on a month-on-month basis. With the recovery of the industry and the decline of the discount rate in the process of wholesale conversion, the third-quarter profit statement is expected to be repaired, and continue to recommend leading companies Huayu Automobile, Xingyu, SAIC,Love Cody、Desai Xiwei.

Core risk: passenger car sales and discounts improved less than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

申万宏源--汽车行业2019Q2基金持仓分析:整体持仓占比处历史低位,零部件仓位小幅下滑,确定性龙头仍为核心偏好【行业研究】

Shen Wan Hongyuan--Automobile Industry's 2019Q2 Fund Position Analysis: The overall share of holdings is historically low, parts positions have declined slightly, and the definitive leader is still the core preference [Industry Research]

Risk Disclaimer

Statement