CHINA CRSC(03969.HK):REVENUE WAS WEAK WHILE NEWLY-SIGNED ORDERS REMAINED STABLE GROWTH MAINTAIN "ACCUMULATE"
CHINA CRSC(03969.HK):REVENUE WAS WEAK WHILE NEWLY-SIGNED ORDERS REMAINED STABLE GROWTH MAINTAIN "ACCUMULATE"
We maintain "Accumulate" but lower TP to HK$3.70. We slightly reduce our forecasts for China CRSC's (the "Company") 2023-2025 shareholders' net profit to RMB3,743 mn (-4.1%) / RMB4,200 mn (-2.1%) / RMB 4,714 mn (-1.0%), respectively. We slightly reduce our forecasts for the Company's earnings per share in 2023/ 2024/ 2025 to RMB0.345 (-4.1%), RMB0.388 (-2.1%), and RMB0.436 (-1.0%), respectively. Our TP represents 10.0x/ 8.9x/ 7.9x 2023-2025 PE ratio and 0.8x 2023 PB ratio.
我們維持 “增持”，但目標價下調至3.70港元。我們將對中國中車集團（“公司”）2023-2025年股東淨利潤的預測分別下調至人民幣37.43億元（-4.1％）/42億元人民幣（-2.1％）/47.14億元人民幣（-1.0％）。我們將對公司2023年/2024/ 2025年每股收益的預測分別略微下調至人民幣0.345元（-4.1％）、0.388元人民幣（-2.1％）和人民幣0.436元（-1.0％）。我們的市盈率代表2023-2025年市盈率的10.0倍/8.9x/7.9倍，2023年市盈率爲0.8倍。
The Company' revenue decreased with gross profit margin continued to improve. The Company's revenue in the first months of 2023 was RMB 24.63 bn, a decrease of 8.60% YoY, mainly due to the decrease in revenue from urban transit business and construction projects. The Company's gross margin increased 2.6 ppts YoY to 25.3% in the first nine months of 2023. The Company has significantly improved its gross profit margin and has good control over its expense ratio. Therefore, the Company's shareholders' net profit in the first nine months of 2023 reached RMB2,566 mn, and the decline narrowed to 1.4% YoY. We believe that the Company's gross profit margin may maintain at its current level in 4Q23.
公司收入下降，毛利率持續提高。公司2023年前幾個月的收入爲人民幣246.3億元，同比下降8.60％，這主要是由於城市交通業務和建築項目收入的減少。該公司的毛利率在2023年前九個月同比增長2.6個百分點至25.3％。該公司顯著提高了毛利率，並對其支出比率有了良好的控制。因此，公司股東在2023年前九個月的淨利潤達到人民幣25.66億元，同比降幅縮小至1.4％。我們認爲，該公司的毛利率可能會在23年第四季度維持在目前的水平。
The Company's newly-signed orders increased, which may boost its performance in 2024. In the first nine months of 2023, the aggregate value of newly-signed orders of the Company amounted to RMB50.88 bn, representing an increase of 12.01% YoY, among which, the value of newly-signed orders in railway sector amounted to RMB14.47 bn, representing an increase of 30.15% YoY; the value of newly-signed orders in urban transit sector amounted to RMB9.49 bn, representing a decrease of 13.82% YoY. The increase in new orders may ensure revenue growth for the Company in the next two years. The Company's order cycle is about 3 years, and 97% of its sales will be recognized as revenue in about 2 years. As China's rail passenger traffic has been improving significantly, we believe that new orders of the Company will maintain rapid growth. Therefore, we expect that optimistic growth of new orders may be reflected in revenue growth in 2024 and 2025.
該公司新簽署的訂單增加，這可能會提振其在2024年的業績。2023年前9個月，公司新簽訂單總額爲人民幣508.8億元，同比增長12.01％，其中，鐵路部門新簽訂單價值爲人民幣144.7億元，同比增長30.15％；城市交通領域新簽訂單價值爲94.9億元人民幣，同比下降13.82％。新訂單的增加可能確保公司未來兩年的收入增長。該公司的訂購週期約爲3年，其97％的銷售額將在大約2年後確認爲收入。隨着中國鐵路客運量的顯著改善，我們相信公司的新訂單將保持快速增長。因此，我們預計，新訂單的樂觀增長可能會反映在2024年和2025年的收入增長中。
Catalyst: Demand of repair and maintenance for rail transportation is increasing.
催化劑：鐵路運輸的維修和維護需求正在增加。
Risks: Intensified competition in the industry; insufficient overseas demand; unexpected price movement in raw materials.
風險：行業競爭加劇；海外需求不足；原材料價格意外波動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。