Core viewpoints
The company's 23Q3 realized revenue of 7.39 billion yuan, an increase of 1.07% over the same period last year, an increase of 6.23% over the previous year, and a net profit of-247 million yuan, a decrease of 241.88% and an increase of 23.79% over the same period last year.
The company's 23Q3 has produced about 970000 pigs (an increase of more than 70 percent over the same period last year), of which about 852000 are commercial pigs. The average complete cost of the company's 23Q3 is about 17.2 yuan / kg (a month-on-month decrease of 0.30 yuan / kg), and the PSY is about 24.1. The improvement of production performance and the decline of feed costs led to the improvement of the company's breeding performance. Combined with the volume, pig price and cost data, we estimate that the company lost about 250 million yuan in the pig farming sector in the third quarter. It is estimated that the company will produce 3.5 million pigs in the whole year. By the end of September, the company has been able to breed 165000 pigs, optimize the production capacity structure and eliminate some old sows, laying a solid foundation for the target of 450-5 million live pigs next year.
Event
The company disclosed its report for the third quarter of 2023 that its revenue in the first three quarters was 20.87 billion yuan, an increase of 11.62% over the same period last year, and its net profit was-911 million yuan, down 2760.81% from the same period last year. The company's 23Q3 realized revenue of 7.39 billion yuan, an increase of 1.07% over the same period last year, an increase of 6.23% over the previous year, and a net profit of-247 million yuan, a decrease of 241.88% and an increase of 23.79% over the same period last year.
Brief comment
1. The breeding market has warmed up, and the profitability has improved compared with the previous month.
The company's 23Q3 sales gross margin is 3.88% (year-on-year-7.24pcts, month-on-month + 1.63pcts), and net sales margin is-3.58% (year-on-year-6.25pcts, month-on-month + 2.15pcts). In terms of expenses: the company's 23Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expenses are 1.470.32 / 82 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of-4%, 11%, 1%, 6% and 1%, respectively, compared with the previous year.
2. The marginal cost of pig breeding is improved, and the feed profit is relatively stable.
Pig business: ① 23Q3 produced about 970000 pigs (an increase of more than 70 percent over the same period last year), of which about 852000 were commercial pigs. The average complete cost of 23Q3 of ② company is about 17.2 yuan / kg (a month-on-month decrease of 0.30 yuan / kg), and PSY is about 24.1. The improvement of production performance and the decrease of feed cost lead to the improvement of the company's breeding performance. Combined with the volume, pig price and cost data, we estimate that the company lost about 250 million yuan in the pig farming sector in the third quarter. According to the pace of fencing, we estimate that the company will produce 3.5 million pigs in the whole year. ③ as of the end of September, the company can breed pig stock 165000, the company to optimize the production structure, eliminate some of the elderly sows, to lay a solid foundation for the target of 450-5 million live pigs next year.
Feed business: the company sells 1.52 million tons of 23Q3 and contributes 60 million + profit.
3, profit forecast and rating: considering the annual pig price or low operation, the company is expected to make a profit or lose money this year; next year and the year after next, with the recovery of pig prices, the company's cost improvement and growth, the performance is expected to be profitable and show rapid growth. Taken into account, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 28652 million yuan in 2023-2025, net profit of 1.41 billion yuan, and EPS of 0.51 million yuan per share, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk analysis.
① risk of price fluctuation of livestock and poultry products: the market prices of live pigs and yellow chickens will fluctuate under the influence of factors such as market supply and demand, thus affecting the profitability of the company.
② feed raw material price fluctuation risk. The main raw materials of feed are corn, wheat, soybean meal, sorghum, rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal, fish meal, DDGS, various vitamins and minerals. Affected by the weather, market economy and other uncertain factors, if the supply of the above-mentioned raw materials is insufficient, the price continues to rise or remains high, it will have a direct impact on the production cost, sales price and gross profit margin of the products. will affect the production and operation of the company's feed industry.
③ 's results fell significantly in the first three quarters of 2023 compared with the same period a year earlier. The company achieved a net profit of-911 million yuan in the first three quarters, down 2760.81% from the same period last year. The main reason is that the company produced 1.6309 million pigs in the first three quarters, an increase of 84.87% over the same period last year. Among them, 2.385 million pigs were fattened, an increase of 92.26% over the same period last year. However, due to the continuous low operation of pig prices, the pig-raising business sector suffered a large loss. In the follow-up, if the pig price remains low, the company's annual performance has the risk of loss expansion.
④ other risks, etc.