YANKUANG ENERGY GROUP(600188):3Q23 RESULTS BEAT;UPBEAT ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
YANKUANG ENERGY GROUP(600188):3Q23 RESULTS BEAT;UPBEAT ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
3Q23 results beat our expectations
23 年第 3 季度的業績超出了我們的預期
Yankuang Energy Group announced its 1-3Q23 results: Revenue fell 20.2% YoY to Rmb135bn. A-share attributable net profit fell 46.8% YoY to Rmb15.5bn, and recurring net profit dropped 46.9% YoY to Rmb14.2bn, mainly due to falling coal prices. In 3Q23, A-share attributable net profit declined 52.3% YoY (up 16.6% QoQ) to Rmb5.3bn, and recurring net profit dropped 53.3% YoY (down 5.2% QoQ) to Rmb4.2bn, beating our expectations, mainly due to stronger-than-expected operation of businesses in Australia and performance of chemicals business.
兗礦能源集團公佈其 1-3Q23 業績：收入同比下降20.2％，至1350億元人民幣。A股應占淨利潤同比下降46.8％至155億元人民幣，經常性淨利潤同比下降46.9％至142億元人民幣，這主要是由於煤炭價格下跌。在23年第三季度，A股應占淨利潤同比下降52.3％（環比增長16.6％）至53億元人民幣，經常性淨利潤同比下降53.3％（同比下降5.2％）至42億元人民幣，超出我們的預期，這主要是由於澳大利亞業務的運營強於預期以及化工業務的表現。
Comments: 1. Overall coal output and sales declined; production in Australiagradually recovered. In 1-3Q23, output and sales volume of commercial coal fell 2.51% and 2.01% YoY to 97.30mn and 99.17mn tonnes. Sales volume of self-produced coal fell 3.87% YoY to 88.31mnt. Sales volume of self-produced coal dropped 6.57% YoY to 61.49mnt in China and rose 2.96% YoY to 26.81mnt in Australia. The firm's coal output in Australia increased 28.3% YoY (9.5% QoQ) in 3Q23 to 10.73mnt as the weather improved and the firm's production and operation in Australia recovered QoQ. 2. Coal ASP fell. In 1-3Q23, the ASP of self-produced coal dropped 22.3% YoY to Rmb794/t, with coal ASP in China and Australia declining19.0% and 28.8% YoY.
評論意見：1.煤炭總產量和銷售量下降；澳大利亞的產量逐漸恢復。在 1-3Q23 中，商用煤的產量和銷量同比下降2.51％和2.01％，至9,730萬噸和9,917萬噸。自產煤炭的銷量同比下降3.87％，至8831萬噸。中國自產煤炭的銷量同比下降6.57％至6149萬噸，澳大利亞自產煤炭的銷量同比增長2.96％，至2681萬噸。由於天氣好轉以及該公司在澳大利亞的生產和運營同比恢復，該公司在澳大利亞的煤炭產量在23年第三季度同比增長28.3％（環比增長9.5％），達到10.73萬噸。2.煤炭ASP下跌。在 1-3Q23 中，自產煤炭的ASP同比下降22.3％，至794元人民幣，中國和澳大利亞的煤炭ASP同比下降19.0％和28.8％。
3. Overall cost per tonne rose; cost at Australian firm significantlyimproved. Due to falling coal production and sales volume, cost per tonne of self-produced coal increased 12.1% YoY in 1-3Q23 to Rmb349. In China and Australia, cost per tonne of self-produced coal rose 6.7% and 12.2% YoY. As production continued improving in 3Q23, the firm's cost per tonne in Australia fell 17.2% YoY (19.0% QoQ) to Rmb471.
3。每噸總成本上升；澳大利亞公司的成本顯著改善。由於煤炭產量和銷量下降，1-3Q23 中每噸自產煤炭的成本同比增長12.1％，至349元人民幣。在中國和澳大利亞，每噸自產煤炭的成本同比上漲6.7％和12.2％。隨着23年第三季度產量的持續改善，該公司在澳大利亞的每噸成本同比下降17.2％（同比下降19.0％），至471元人民幣。
4. Chemicals business improved decidedly thanks to efficiency improvement and cost reduction. In 1-3Q23, the firm's salesvolume of chemicals rose 10.5% YoY, with chemicals ASP and cost falling 7.4% and 8.5% YoY. In 3Q23, sales volume and ASP of chemicals grew 5.4% and 2.6% YoY, but chemicals cost dropped 13.6% YoY. Gross profit from sales of chemicals increased 143% YoY to Rmb2.0bn in 3Q23, accounting for 52% of its total gross profit in 1- 3Q23.
4。得益於效率的提高和成本的降低，化學品業務得到了顯著改善。在 1-3Q23 中，該公司的化學品銷售量同比增長10.5％，其中化學品ASP和成本同比下降7.4％和8.5％。在23年第三季度，化學品的銷量和ASP同比增長5.4％和2.6％，但化學品成本同比下降13.6％。23年第三季度，化學品銷售毛利同比增長143％，達到20億元人民幣，佔其23年第一至第三季度總毛利的52％。
5. In 1-3Q23, net operating cash inflow (excl. impact of financial firms) was down Rmb30.08bn YoY to Rmb18.03bn. 6. After acquiring 51% stakes in Luxi Mining and in Xinjiang Energy & Chemical, Yankuang Energy Group consolidated financialresults of both on September 30. In 1-3Q23, the two subsidiaries reported attributable net profit of Rmb1.64bn and Rmb520mn.
5。在 1-3Q23 中，淨運營現金流入（不包括金融公司的影響）同比下降300.8億元人民幣，至180.3億元人民幣。6.兗礦能源集團在收購魯西礦業和新疆能源化工51％的股份後，於9月30日合併了兩者的財務業績。在 1-3Q23 中，兩家子公司公佈的應占淨利潤爲16.4億元人民幣和5.2億元人民幣。
Trends to watch Continues to strengthen coal business. According to the firm's publicdisclosures in the 3Q23 earnings call, its coal production capacity should increase more than 20mnt/yr as a Xinjiang project in Wucaiwan starts operating in the next five years. The firm is also keeping an eye on the transfer of coal mines in China, and is planning to expand production by acquiring high-quality assets. We expect endogenous growth and M&As to bolster the growth of the firm's coal business, and we are upbeat on the growth potential of its coal business.
值得關注的趨勢繼續加強煤炭業務。根據該公司在3季度業績電話會議上的公開披露，隨着位於五彩灣的新疆項目在未來五年內開始運營，其煤炭產能將增長超過2000萬噸/年。該公司還密切關注中國煤礦的轉讓，並計劃通過收購高質量資產來擴大產量。我們預計，內生增長和併購將促進公司煤炭業務的增長，我們對其煤炭業務的增長潛力持樂觀態度。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Given the impact of adjustments to coal output and ASP assumptions as well as consolidation of acquired assets, we raise our 2023 and 2024 A-share earnings forecasts 12% and 10% to Rmb20.6bn and Rmb18.8bn for, and raise our 2023 and 2024 H-share earnings forecasts 2% and 11% to Rmb19.9bn and Rmb19.9bn. A-shares aretrading at 7.0x 2023e and 7.7x 2024e P/E, and H-shares are trading at 4.7x 2023e and 4.6x 2024e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM ratings forboth A- and H-shares. We raise our A-share TP 10% to Rmb23 (implying 8.3x 2023e and 9.1x 2024e P/E), offering 18.0% upside and raise our H-share TP 14% to HK$16 (implying 5.3x 2023e and 5.2x 2024e P/E), offering 13.5% upside.
鑑於煤炭產量調整和ASP假設以及收購資產整合的影響，我們將2023年和2024年的A股收益預期提高12％和10％，至206億元人民幣和188億元人民幣，並將2023年和2024年的H股收益預期提高2％和11％，至199億元人民幣和199億元人民幣。A股的市盈率爲2023年的7.0倍，2024年的7.7倍，H股的市盈率爲2023年的4.7倍，市盈率爲2024年的4.6倍。我們維持A股和H股的跑贏大盤評級。我們將A股目標價提高10％至人民幣23元（這意味着2023年度的8.3倍和2024年期市盈率的9.1倍），上漲18.0％，並將H股目標價提高14％至16港元（意味着2023年度的5.3倍和2024年期市盈率的5.2倍），上漲13.5％。
Risks
風險
Sharp decline in coal prices; disappointing construction of projects.
煤炭價格急劇下跌；項目建設令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。