XINTE ENERGY CO LTD(1799.HK):3Q23 EARNINGS FELL SHARPLY DESPITE COST NORMALISATION
XINTE ENERGY CO LTD(1799.HK):3Q23 EARNINGS FELL SHARPLY DESPITE COST NORMALISATION
3Q23 earnings fell sharply despite cost normalisationXinte Energy reported its simplified 9M23 results, implying 3Q23 net profit of RMB320m for 3Q23 - down 92% YoY and 75% QoQ. Although production cost normalised in 3Q23 on ramping up of Baotou plant, plunging poly price hit on Xinte's profitability hard. We keep our full- year earnings forecasts of c.RMB5.4bn largely unchanged, which embeds sequential improvements in 4Q23 results mainly on seasonality of its renewable BOO business, but cut 2024-25 earnings forecasts by 13-15%. We retain HOLD ratings for Xinte on the lacklustre outlook of polysilicon profitability and trim TP to HK$12.00.
儘管成本正常化，但23第三季度的收益仍大幅下降新特能源公佈了簡化的9M23年業績，這意味着23年第三季度的淨利潤爲人民幣3.2億元，同比下降92％，環比下降75％。儘管隨着包頭工廠的擴建，生產成本在3季度恢復正常，但聚乙烯價格的暴跌嚴重打擊了新特的盈利能力。我們將54億元人民幣的全年收益預測基本保持不變，這反映了23年第四季度業績的連續改善，主要是由於其可再生BOO業務的季節性，但將2024-25年的收益預期下調了13-15％。由於多晶硅盈利前景乏善可陳，我們維持新特的持有評級，並將目標價下調至12.00港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
3Q23 results review. Xinte disclosed a simplified set of 9M23 results with net profit coming in at RMB5,079m. The implied 3Q23 revenue and net profit was down 25%/75% QoQ respectively on polysilicon price decline. Xinte's GPM and NPM recorded the lowest level since at least 1Q21, as polysilicon's boom cycle officially ends.
23 年第 3 季度業績回顧。新特披露了一系列簡化的9M23業績，淨利潤爲50.79億元人民幣。由於多晶硅價格下跌，2023年第三季度的隱含收入和淨利潤分別同比下降25％/75％。隨着多晶硅的繁榮週期正式結束，新特的GPM和NPM創下了至少自21年第一季度以來的最低水平。
Based on our discussion with the management, Xinte produced 51,000 tonnes polysilicon in 3Q and sold 55,000 tonnes. Average selling price was RMB67/kg (incl. VAT) while all-in cost was RMB63/kg, implying the poly segment recorded a loss of c.RMB4/kg in the quarter. However, thanks to inventory provision reversals, the segment still posted a net profit in 3Q23 according to the management.
根據我們與管理層的討論，新特在第三季度生產了51,000噸多晶硅，銷售了5.5萬噸。平均售價爲人民幣67元/千克（含增值稅），而總成本爲63元人民幣/千克，這意味着聚乙烯板塊在本季度錄得每千克約人民幣4元的虧損。但是，管理層表示，由於庫存準備金逆轉，該細分市場在3季度仍實現淨利潤。
Polysilicon price to see further downside in Nov. Despite short-term strengths in poly price during Sep-Oct on production disruption and delayed commissioning of new plants, we expect poly pricing to fall again from Nov onwards towards RMB70-ish/kg level on softening demand and growing supply.
11月多晶硅價格將進一步下跌。儘管由於生產中斷和新工廠延遲投產，聚晶硅價格在9月至10月出現短期走強，但由於需求疲軟和供應增加，我們預計，多晶硅價格將從11月起再次下跌至每千克70元人民幣的水平。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Stronger/weaker-than-expected solar PV demand.
太陽能光伏需求強於/低於預期。
Unexpected operational disruption.
意外的運營中斷。
Valuation
估價
Maintain HOLD rating. We cut Xinte's 2024-25E earnings by 13-15% respectively to factor in a slightly lower polysilicon prices, echoing our cautious stance on global solar PV demand in 2024 (see our previous note here).
保持 HOLD 等級。考慮到多晶硅價格略有下跌，我們將新特2024-25年的收益分別下調了13-15％，這呼應了我們對2024年全球太陽能光伏需求的謹慎立場（參見此前的報告）。
Our SOTP-based TP is reduced to HK$12.00 from HK$13.50 upon earnings forecasts adjustment. Xinte needs to effectively improve its operational stability and maintain best-in-class cost control and quality to retain its cash pile through the industry downturn, in our view. The company's past records on this front may keep investors wary and away.
經盈利預測調整，我們基於SOTP的目標價從13.50港元降至12.00港元。我們認爲，新特需要有效提高運營穩定性，保持一流的成本控制和質量，以便在行業低迷時期保持現金儲備。該公司過去在這方面的記錄可能會使投資者保持警惕和遠離。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。