ALUMINUM CORPORATION OF CHINA(601600):3Q23 RESULTS IN LINE; BOTH VOLUME AND PROFIT OF PRIMARY ALUMINUM BUSINESS RISE
ALUMINUM CORPORATION OF CHINA(601600):3Q23 RESULTS IN LINE; BOTH VOLUME AND PROFIT OF PRIMARY ALUMINUM BUSINESS RISE
3Q23 results in line with our expectationsAluminum Corporation of China Limited announced that in 1-3Q23, revenue dropped 17.23% YoY to Rmb188.4bn; net profit attributable to shareholders fell 0.85% YoY to Rmb5.35bn; and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders rose 10.76% YoY to Rmb4.93bn. In 3Q23, revenue declined 20.85% YoY to Rmb54.34bn (down 19.83% QoQ); and net profit attributable to shareholders increased 105.35% YoY to Rmb1.94bn (up 20.70% QoQ). The 3Q23 results were in line with our expectations. Earnings increased YoY and QoQ in 3Q23, as volume and profit of the primary aluminum business both rose.
2023年第三季度業績符合我們的預期。中國鋁業股份有限公司宣佈，在 1-3Q23 中，收入同比下降17.23％，至人民幣1884億元；歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降0.85％，至53.5億元人民幣；歸屬於股東的經常性淨利潤同比增長10.76％，至49.3億元人民幣。在23年第三季度，收入同比下降20.85％至人民幣543.4億元（環比下降19.83％）；歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長105.35％至19.4億元人民幣（環比增長20.70％）。23 年第三季度的業績符合我們的預期。由於原鋁業務的銷量和利潤均上升，23年第三季度的收益同比和環比均增長。
Both volume and profit of primary aluminum business rise; earnings notably improve. In 3Q23, the output of metallurgical alumina at the company fell 3.64% YoY (down 0.47% QoQ) to 4.23mnt. Output of fine alumina rose 7.95% YoY (up 23.38% QoQ) to 0.95mnt. Output of aluminum fell 0.53% YoY (up 22.22% QoQ) to 1.87mnt. Coal output increased 35.55% YoY (down 1.42% QoQ) to 3.47mnt.
原鋁業務的銷量和利潤均有所增長；收益顯著改善。在23年第三季度，該公司的冶金氧化鋁產量同比下降3.64％（同比下降0.47％），至423萬噸。精細氧化鋁的產量同比增長7.95％（環比增長23.38％），達到0.95萬噸。鋁產量同比下降0.53％（環比增長22.22％），至187萬噸。煤炭產量同比增長35.55％（環比下降1.42％），達到347萬噸。
Earnings at the company notably improved, as volume and profit of the primary aluminum business both rose. GM increased 8.08ppt YoY to 15.77% (up 5.84ppt QoQ) in 3Q23. The production volume of aluminum fell 0.53% YoY (up 22.22% QoQ), as the firm's factories in Yunnan province restarted production. Changjiang aluminum ingot prices rose 2.4% YoY (1.7% QoQ). Prices of alumina, thermal coal, and prebaked anodes dropped 1.8%, 31.5%, and 37.2% YoY (up 0.9%, down 5.3%, and down 9.2% QoQ).
由於原鋁業務的銷量和利潤均上升，該公司的收益顯著改善。通用汽車在23年第三季度同比增長8.08個百分點至15.77％（環比增長5.84個百分點）。由於該公司在雲南省的工廠重新開始生產，鋁產量同比下降0.53％（環比增長22.22％）。長江鋁錠價格同比上漲2.4％（環比上漲1.7％）。氧化鋁、動力煤和預焙陽極的價格同比下降1.8％、31.5％和37.2％（上漲0.9％，下降5.3％，環比下降9.2％）。
Asset structure and cash flows continue to improve. The firm's asset- liability ratio came in at 54.34% in 3Q23 (down 4.33ppt from early 2023). Its operating net cash flow stood at Rmb10.09bn in 3Q23 (up 131.25% YoY, and 58.81% QoQ).
資產結構和現金流繼續改善。該公司的資產負債比率在23年第三季度爲54.34％（較2023年初下降4.33個百分點）。其運營淨現金流在23年第三季度爲100.9億元人民幣（同比增長131.25％，環比增長58.81％）。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Production capacity increases thanks to new projects; large shareholder buying additional shares shows confidence in the firm. The firm's Huayun Phase III 0.42mnt/yr aluminum project (actual incremental capacity: 0.17mnt/yr) in the Inner Mongolia and the Huasheng Phase II 2mnt/yr alumina project are proceeding smoothly, according to corporate filings. In our view, the two projects will boost the firm's production capacity of aluminum and alumina 2.3% and 9.0% after starting production. In October, the firm announced that controlling shareholder plans to purchase an additional Rmb250-500mn A-shares. As of October 26, the shareholder had purchased an additional Rmb45mn A-shares, representing 0.04% of total equity.
由於新項目，產能得到提高；大股東購買更多股票表明了對公司的信心。公司文件顯示，該公司在內蒙古的華雲三期鋁業年產量爲0.42億噸（實際增產能：0.17億噸/年）和華生二期年氧化鋁項目進展順利。我們認爲，這兩個項目將在開始生產後將公司的鋁和氧化鋁產能提高2.3％和9.0％。10月，該公司宣佈，控股股東計劃再購買2.5億至5億元人民幣的A股。截至10月26日，該股東已額外購買了人民幣4500萬股A股，佔總股本的0.04％。
Aluminum prices to continue increasing amid implementation of pro- growth policies in China. We foresee tight supply in the aluminum industry, as: 1) the production capacity of the domestic aluminum industry is reaching the highest possible level; and 2) aluminum factories in Yunnan will likely halt production during the upcoming dry season (November to May of the following year). On the demand side, we think the implementation of pro-growth policies will boost market confidence. Given the existing low inventories, we think aluminum prices may continue to increase. The firm will benefit from higher aluminum prices, in our view, due to its leading position in the global aluminum industry.
在中國實施促增長政策的背景下，鋁價將繼續上漲。我們預計鋁業將出現供應緊張，因爲：1）國內鋁業的產能已達到儘可能高的水平；2）在即將到來的旱季（次年11月至5月），雲南的鋁廠可能會停止生產。在需求方面，我們認爲促增長政策的實施將提振市場信心。鑑於目前的低庫存，我們認爲鋁價可能會繼續上漲。我們認爲，由於其在全球鋁業中的領先地位，該公司將受益於鋁價的上漲。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2023 and 2024 earnings forecasts unchanged. A-shares are trading at 14.3x 2023e and 14.2x 2024e P/E. H-shares are trading at 8.5x 2023e and 8.2x 2024e P/E. We maintain NEUTRAL and our target price of Rmb7.2 for A-shares. Our TP implies 17.1x 2023e and 17.0x 2024e P/E, offering 19% upside. We maintain a NEUTRAL rating and a target price of HK$4.9 for H-shares. H-shares are trading at 11.2x 2023e and 11.1x 2024e P/E, offering 22% upside.
我們將2023年和2024年的收益預測保持不變。A股的市盈率爲2023年的14.3倍，市盈率爲2024年的14.2倍。H股的市盈率爲2023年的8.5倍，市盈率爲2024年的8.2倍。我們維持中性，A股的目標價爲人民幣7.2元。我們的市盈率意味着2023年度的17.1倍和2024年的17.0倍，上漲空間爲19％。我們維持中性評級，H股的目標價爲4.9港元。H股的交易價格爲2023年的11.2倍，市盈率爲2024年的11.1倍，上漲幅度爲22％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing economic recovery and/or pro-growth policies; sharp price fluctuations.
令人失望的經濟復甦和/或促增長政策；價格劇烈波動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。