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Is Bohai Ferry Group (SHSE:603167) A Risky Investment?

Is Bohai Ferry Group (SHSE:603167) A Risky Investment?

渤海渡轮集团(SHSE: 603167)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/10/31 06:57

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Bohai Ferry Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603167) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

霍华德·马克斯说得很好,与其担心股价波动,不如说:“我担心的是永久亏损的可能性... 我认识的每位实际投资者都担心这种风险。”在研究公司的资产负债表有多风险时,考虑公司的资产负债表是很自然的,因为企业倒闭时通常涉及债务。和许多其他公司一样 渤海轮渡集团有限公司 (SHSE: 603167) 利用了债务。但是这笔债务是股东关心的问题吗?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务可以为企业提供帮助,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是新资本还是自由现金流。资本主义的重要组成部分是 “创造性破坏” 过程,在这种过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。但是,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务可以成为企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事就是综合考虑其现金和债务。

See our latest analysis for Bohai Ferry Group

查看我们对渤海轮渡集团的最新分析

How Much Debt Does Bohai Ferry Group Carry?

渤海渡轮集团背负多少债务?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Bohai Ferry Group had debt of CN¥201.5m at the end of September 2023, a reduction from CN¥799.1m over a year. However, it also had CN¥115.2m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥86.2m.

您可以点击下图了解更多详细信息,该图片显示,截至2023年9月底,渤海渡轮集团的债务为2.015亿元人民币,较上一年的7.991亿元人民币有所减少。但是,它也有1.152亿元人民币的现金,因此其净负债为8.62亿元人民币。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:603167 Debt to Equity History October 30th 2023
上海证券交易所:603167 债权与股权历史记录 2023 年 10 月 30 日

How Healthy Is Bohai Ferry Group's Balance Sheet?

渤海渡轮集团的资产负债表有多健康?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Bohai Ferry Group had liabilities of CN¥406.1m due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥207.3m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥115.2m and CN¥249.7m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥248.5m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

纵观最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,渤海渡轮集团在12个月内到期的负债为4.061亿元人民币,此后到期的负债为2.073亿元人民币。另一方面,它在一年内有1.152亿元人民币的现金和价值2.497亿元人民币的应收账款。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和高出2.485亿元人民币。

Since publicly traded Bohai Ferry Group shares are worth a total of CN¥3.66b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

由于渤海渡轮集团公开交易的股票总价值为人民币36.6亿元,因此这一负债水平似乎不太可能成为重大威胁。但是,有足够的负债,我们肯定会建议股东今后继续监控资产负债表。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我们通过以下方法来衡量公司的债务负担与其盈利能力:将其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),并计算其利息和税前收益(EBIT)支付利息支出(利息保障)的难易程度。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。

Bohai Ferry Group has a low debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.44. But the really cool thing is that it actually managed to receive more interest than it paid, over the last year. So it's fair to say it can handle debt like a hotshot teppanyaki chef handles cooking. In fact Bohai Ferry Group's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 80% in the last twelve months. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Bohai Ferry Group's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

渤海渡轮集团的债务与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率很低,仅为0.44。但真正酷的是,在过去的一年中,它获得的利息实际上超过了支付的利息。因此,可以公平地说,它可以像铁板烧大厨处理烹饪一样处理债务。实际上,渤海渡轮集团的储蓄空间是其低债务水平,因为其息税前利润在过去十二个月中下降了80%。在还清债务方面,收入下降并不比含糖汽水对你的健康更有用。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,影响未来资产负债表表现的是渤海渡轮集团的收益。因此,如果你想进一步了解其收益,可能值得看看这张长期收益趋势图。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Bohai Ferry Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法削减债务。因此,我们经常检查息税前利润中有多少转化为自由现金流。在过去的三年中,渤海渡轮集团产生的自由现金流实际上超过了息税前利润。在 Daft Punk 音乐会上,这种强劲的现金兑换率让我们和观众一样兴奋。

Our View

我们的观点

The good news is that Bohai Ferry Group's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But we must concede we find its EBIT growth rate has the opposite effect. All these things considered, it appears that Bohai Ferry Group can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Bohai Ferry Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

好消息是,渤海渡轮集团表现出有能力用息税前利润支付利息支出,这让我们感到高兴,就像毛茸茸的小狗对待幼童一样。但我们必须承认,我们发现其息税前利润增长率具有相反的效果。考虑到所有这些因素,渤海渡轮集团似乎可以轻松应对其当前的债务水平。当然,尽管这种杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但它确实带来了更大的风险,因此值得关注这个杠杆作用。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外的风险。一个很好的例子:我们发现了 渤海渡轮集团有 3 个警告标志 你应该知道,其中一个可能很严重。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

毕竟,如果你对一家资产负债表坚如磐石的快速成长型公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。 我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街在上述任何股票中都没有头寸。

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


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