CRRC CORP(1766.HK):3Q RESULTS IN LINE WITH SLIGHT MISS
CRRC CORP(1766.HK):3Q RESULTS IN LINE WITH SLIGHT MISS
CRRC reported 3Q results, with sales up by 2.7% and net profit down by 7.1% YoY. The earnings decline in 3Q came as no surprise due to high base. Gross margin stayed at high level at 21%, but SG&A cost rose by 9.6%, higher than top-line growth. In 9M23, sales and net profit rose by 5.5% and 2.1% YoY, slightly lagging behind the consensus forecast. We retain sales estimate unchanged, but slightly increase the SG&A forecast and trim the net profit estimate. We also trim the target price by applying the unchanged target multiple, 13.2x 23E P/E to derive the new TP HK$5.88. BUY rating is retained.
中國中車公佈了第三季度業績，銷售額同比增長2.7％，淨利潤下降7.1％。由於基數高，第三季度收益下降不足爲奇。毛利率保持在21％的高水平，但銷售和收購成本增長了9.6％，高於收入增長。在9M23，銷售額和淨利潤同比增長5.5％和2.1％，略落後於市場普遍預期。我們維持銷售預期不變，但略微上調了銷售和收購預測並下調了淨利潤預期。我們還通過應用不變的目標倍數，即23E市盈率的13.2倍來下調目標價，得出新的目標價爲5.88港元。買入評級保持不變。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The shining catalysts for CRRC lie in the resumption of high-speed rail new order and clean energy equipment sales. The order of high-speed rail resumed in mid-2023 after three-year suspension during pandemic. With the passenger transport resuming back to peak level, the new order of high-speed rail resumes the normal demand. In addition, CRRC is a leading supplier of clean energy equipment, including wind turbine, solar module, and energy storage. In 9M23, the clean energy sales accounted for 10% of total sales for CRRC.
中國中車的光輝催化劑在於恢復高鐵新訂單和清潔能源設備銷售。在疫情期間暫停三年後，高鐵的訂單于2023年中期恢復。隨着客運恢復到峯值水平，高鐵的新秩序恢復了正常的需求。此外，中國中車是清潔能源設備的領先供應商，包括風力渦輪機、太陽能組件和儲能。在9M23，清潔能源銷售佔中國中車總銷售額的10％。
Sales rose by 2.7% YoY, net profit declined by 7.1% YoY in 1Q23, slightly below the consensus estimate. High base was one of the reasons while the high growth of SG&A cost was another reason for the decline in net profit. SG&A cost rose by 9.6% YoY, higher than sales growth, mainly due to the provisions.
銷售額同比增長2.7％，淨利潤在23年第一季度同比下降7.1％，略低於市場普遍預期。高基數是原因之一，而銷售和收購成本的高增長是淨利潤下降的另一個原因。銷售和收購成本同比增長9.6％，高於銷售增長，這主要是由於準備金。
In 9M23, sales and net profit rose by 5.5% and 2.1% YoY, below the consensus estimate of 7.8% YoY earnings growth in 2023.
在9M23，銷售額和淨利潤同比增長5.5％和2.1％，低於市場普遍估計的2023年收益同比增長7.8％。
New order grew by 18.75% YoY in 9M23, with 23%, 19%, 17%, 10%, and 4% respectively from urban rail, high-speed rail, locomotive, freight cargo, and passenger carriage.
在9M23，新訂單同比增長18.75％，分別來自城市鐵路、高鐵、機車、貨運和客運的23％、19％、17％、10％和4％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
If earnings growth will normalise gradually, CRRC's premium valuation might fade.
如果收益增長逐漸恢復正常，中國中車的溢價估值可能會減弱。
Valuation
估價
We slightly cut earnings estimate in 4Q23. TP is adjusted to HK$5.88 by applying the unchanged target multiple, 13.2x 23E P/E. High-speed rail, locomotive, urban rail, and clean energy are the major drivers and catalysts for CRRC. BUY rating is retained.
我們在23年第四季度略微下調了收益預期。通過應用不變的目標倍數，即23E市盈率的13.2倍，將目標值調整爲5.88港元。高鐵、機車、城市軌道和清潔能源是中國中車的主要驅動力和催化劑。買入評級保持不變。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。