JINJING SCIENCE&TECHNOLOGY STOCK(600586):EARNINGS OF PV GLASS IMPROVE;ACTIVELY ADVANCES BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION
JINJING SCIENCE&TECHNOLOGY STOCK(600586):EARNINGS OF PV GLASS IMPROVE;ACTIVELY ADVANCES BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION
3Q23 results largely in line with our expectations
第三季度業績與我們的預期基本一致
Jinjing Science & Technology Stock announced its 3Q23 results: Revenue rose 6.8% YoY to Rmb2.09bn; attributable net profit rose 224% YoY to Rmb162mn; recurring attributable net profit rose 241% YoY to Rmb168mn. The firm's results are largely in line with our expectations.
金晶科技股份有限公司公佈了第三季度業績：營收同比增長6.8%，至20.9億元人民幣；可歸屬淨利潤同比增長224%，至1.62億元人民幣；經常性可歸屬淨利潤同比增長241%，至1.68億元人民幣。該公司的業績與我們的預期基本一致。
We estimate the firm's soda ash business was relatively stable in 3Q23, and earnings of photovoltaic (PV) glass improved.
我們估計該公司的純鹼業務在23季度相對穩定，光伏(PV)玻璃的收益有所改善。
Soda ash: There was seasonal maintenance in the soda ash industry in 3Q23. Resumption of float glass production lines and launch of new PV glass production lines increased daily production capacity by 8,600t/d. Soda ash prices rebounded from the lows in June, and ASP in 3Q23 fell 3% QoQ to Rmb2,401/t. We think earnings of this business were relatively stable QoQ.
純鹼：23年第三季度純鹼行業出現季節性維護。浮法玻璃生產線的恢復和新的光伏玻璃生產線的投產使日生產能力增加了8,600噸/天。純鹼價格從6月份的低點反彈，23季度的純鹼價格環比下降3%，至2,401元/噸。我們認為這項業務的季度收益相對穩定。
PV glass: Demand was solid in 3Q23 and ASP of 3.2mm PV glass in the industry rose Rmb0.5/sqm QoQ to Rmb26.5/sqm. The firm's phase II 600t/d PV glass production line in Malaysia was put into operation in late May. We think profit contribution from PV glass further increased in 3Q23.
光伏玻璃：2003年第三季度需求穩健，3.2 mm光伏玻璃每平方米季度平均價格上漲0.5元，至26.5元/平方米。該公司在馬來西亞的二期600t/d光伏玻璃生產線於5月下旬投產。我們認為光伏玻璃的利潤貢獻在23季度進一步增加。
Float glass: The industry experienced effective destocking in 3Q23 thanks to the peak season. As of end-September, days in float glass deep processing orders increased four days from end-June to 20.3 days, and tax-included ASP of float glass rose 3% from end-June to Rmb2,035/t.
浮法玻璃：得益於旺季，該行業在23季度經歷了有效的去庫存。截至9月底，浮法玻璃深加工訂單天數較6月底增加4天，至20.3天，浮法玻璃含稅平均價格較6月底上升3%，至2,035元/噸。
Inventory turnover improved slightly QoQ; cash flow was under pressure YoY. The firm's inventory turnover days in 3Q23 decreased four days QoQ to 68 days. Net operating cash flow declined 43% YoY to Rmb685mn, mainly due to increased purchases of materials. Ratio of operating cash flow to revenue was largely stable YoY at 0.6, and ratio of net operating cash flow to net profit fell 1.3 YoY to 1.6.
季度庫存周轉率略有改善；現金流同比承壓。該公司在23季度的庫存周轉天數減少了4天，季度減少到68天。淨營業現金流同比下降43%，至人民幣6.85億元，主要原因是材料採購增加。營業現金流與收入的比率基本穩定在0.6，淨營業現金流與淨利潤的比率同比下降1.3，至1.6。
The firm transformed its Tengzhou No.2 glass production line into a transparent conductive oxide (TCO) glass production line. The firm announced that its 600t/d Tengzhou No.2 glass production line was transformed into a TCO glass production line, which was put into operation on September 8. In addition to TCO glass, the production line can also produce low-E glass.
該公司將滕州第二玻璃生產線改造為透明導電氧化物(TCO)玻璃生產線。該公司宣佈，其600噸/日的滕州二號玻璃生產線改造為TCO玻璃生產線，於9月8日投產。除TCO玻璃外，該生產線還可以生產Low-E玻璃。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Earnings contribution from new businesses increases; the firm actively advances business transformation. The firm actively expands its TCO glass and PV glass businesses. TCO glass: The firm has high- quality products and pays attention to introducing large customers. It has established a strategic partnership with Microquanta. The firm is also making progress in cooperation with overseas customers. PV glass: The firm is building presence in Ningxia and other regions to be close to end- market customers. We expect earnings of the business to improve as the yield gradually rises.
來自新業務的收益貢獻增加；公司積極推進業務轉型。該公司積極拓展TCO玻璃和光伏玻璃業務。TCO玻璃：公司擁有高品質的產品，注重引進大客戶。它已經與Microquanta建立了戰略合作夥伴關係。該公司在與海外客戶的合作中也取得了進展。光伏玻璃：該公司正在寧夏和其他地區建立業務，以貼近終端市場客戶。我們預計，隨著收益率的逐步上升，該業務的收益將有所改善。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
As soda ash and float glass businesses may face pressure next year, we lower our price assumptions. We maintain our 2023 EPS forecast of Rmb0.38 and cut our 2024 EPS forecast 15% to Rmb0.36. The stock is trading at 17x 2023e and 18x 2024e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM and lower our target price 16% to Rmb7.3, implying 19x 2023e and 20x 2024e P/E and offering 11% upside.
由於純鹼和浮法玻璃業務明年可能面臨壓力，我們下調了價格預期。我們維持2023年每股收益預測為0.38元人民幣，並將2024年每股收益預期下調15%至0.36元人民幣。該股目前的本益比為17倍2023E和18倍2024E，我們保持強於大盤的表現，將目標價下調16%至7.3元人民幣，這意味著19倍2023E和20倍2024E的本益比，並提供11%的上行空間。
Risks
風險
Float glass production resuming faster than expected; soda ash prices falling by more than expected; orders for new businesses disappointing.
浮法玻璃恢復生產的速度快於預期；純鹼價格降幅超過預期；新業務訂單令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。