YANKUANG ENERGY(600188):3Q23 EARNINGS MISSED;PROFIT OF NEWLY ACQUIRED ASSETS PLUMMETED
YANKUANG ENERGY(600188):3Q23 EARNINGS MISSED;PROFIT OF NEWLY ACQUIRED ASSETS PLUMMETED
The net profit of Yankuang's original assets dropped 8% QoQ to RMB4,215m in 3Q23 under CAS, 9% below our forecast. The profit of the new assets acquired from parent also dropped 45% YoY on an annualised basis. We expect its earnings to fall 21% QoQ mainly on lower coal prices. We reiterate our HOLD calls on the company as we expect significant earnings declines in the next two years even with the contributions from new assets.
根據CAS的數據，兗礦原始資產的淨利潤在3季度環比下降8％，至42.15億元人民幣，比我們的預期低9％。按年計算，從母公司手中收購的新資產的利潤也同比下降了45％。我們預計其收益將同比下降21％，這主要是由於煤炭價格下跌。我們重申對該公司的持有呼籲，因爲我們預計，即使有來自新資產的出資，未來兩年的收益仍將大幅下降。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Yankuang's net profit fell 52% YoY to RMB4,516m in 3Q23 under CAS. After removing the contributions from newly acquired assets from parent, the earnings of its original assets dropped 54% YoY and 8% QoQ to RMB4,215m, 9% below our forecast. The discrepancy mainly came from the lower-than- expected sales volume and ASPs of most of its mines. In particular, the ramp- up at two mines in Inner Mongolia was deterred by stringent safety control.
在CAS下，兗礦的淨利潤在3季度同比下降52％，至人民幣45.16億元。扣除母公司新收購資產的出資後，其原始資產的收益同比下降54％，同比下降8％，至42.15億元人民幣，比我們的預測低9％。差異主要來自其大多數礦山的銷量和ASP低於預期。特別是，嚴格的安全控制阻止了內蒙古兩座礦山的增產。
The company completed the acquisition of 51% stakes in Luxi Mining and Xinjiang Nenghua by the end of September 2023 from its parent. The total net profit of these two acquired assets was RMB2.16bn in 9M23. After we annualise it, its earnings plummeted 45% YoY, mainly on lower coal prices. It also fell short of the guaranteed profit (RMB15.4bn in 2023-25) on a pro-rata basis.
截至2023年9月底，該公司完成了從母公司手中收購魯西礦業和新疆能華51％的股份。這兩項收購資產在9M23年度的淨利潤總額爲人民幣21.6億元。在我們對其進行年化處理後，其收益同比下降45％，這主要是由於煤炭價格下跌。按比例計算，它也未達到保證利潤（2023-25年度爲154億元人民幣）。
Looking ahead, we expect its net profit to drop 21% QoQ in 4Q23 even if we include the contributions from the acquired assets for the quarter. It is mainly because of lower expected coal prices.
展望未來，即使包括本季度收購資產的出資，我們預計其淨利潤仍將在23年第四季度同比下降21％。這主要是由於預期的煤炭價格較低。
We adjust our earnings forecasts by +3.7%/-1.5%--0.1% for 2023/24/25 respectively after updating our model with the results and fine-tunings. Although the company's H shares offer about 11% dividend yield for 2023E at current price, we do not think it is attractive enough as we expect the yield to drop significantly over the next two years with its earnings.
在使用結果和微調更新模型後，我們將2023/24/25年的收益預測分別調整了+3.7％/-1.5％--0.1％。儘管按當前價格計算，該公司的H股2023年股息收益率約爲11％，但我們認爲其吸引力不足，因爲我們預計收益率將在未來兩年內大幅下降。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Higher-than-expected realized coal price.
已實現煤炭價格高於預期。
Lower-than-expected cost.
成本低於預期。
Valuation
估價
We marginally raise our target price for its H shares from HK$12.21 to HK$12.22 to reflect the changes in our earnings forecasts. Our target valuation remains 0.92x 2023E P/B.
我們將H股的目標價格從12.21港元小幅上調至12.22港元，以反映我們收益預測的變化。我們的目標估值仍然是2023年度市盈率的0.92倍。
We reduce our target price for its A shares from RMB18.43 to RMB17.76. We still set our target price based on its average 3-month A-H premium which has narrowed from 62% to 55% since early September.
我們將A股的目標價格從人民幣18.43元下調至人民幣17.76元。我們仍然根據其3個月平均A-H溢價設定目標價格，自9月初以來，該溢價已從62％降至55％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。