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川发龙蟒(002312):归母净利润环比回升 新能源项目投资加码

Chuanfa Dragon Python (002312): Net profit from the mother rebounded month-on-month, increased investment in new energy projects

CITIC SEC ·  Oct 30, 2023 05:46

The Company continued to promote the construction of "Mineralization Integration", improved the upstream raw material self-sufficiency and enabled long-term development; at the same time, strengthened the construction of new energy materials projects, planned to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mianzhu Chuanfa Dragon Python, invested in the construction of an annual output of 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, and strived to create a second growth curve. Considering that the price and gross profit of phosphorus chemical products decline, the company's profits are under short-term pressure, and the future prosperity is expected to gradually recover, we adjust the company's net profit forecast from 2023 to 2025 to 5.30/8.21/11.36 billion yuan. We have long been optimistic about the Company's mineral integration advantages and leading position in the segmentation field, and the new energy materials project also hopes to inject long-term growth into the Company, giving the Company 20xPE in 2024, adjusting the target price to 9 yuan (the original target price is 12 yuan), and maintaining the "Buy" rating.

The company's 23Q3 revenue, net profit from parent rose month-on-month, gross profit margin fell 1.58pcts month-on-month. According to the announcement of the company, the company realized revenue in Q3 of 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.793 billion yuan and RMB 93 million yuan respectively,-18.83% and-71.38% year-on-year respectively, and +8.00% and +14.27% month-on-month respectively. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of sales in the third quarter were 13.83% and 5.22% respectively, compared with-1.58pcts and 0.23pct respectively. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the gross profit of 23Q3 industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer was-43.82% and-63.66% respectively. According to the historical data of the company, the revenue ratio of the two exceeded 60%, and the sharp drop in gross profit was the main reason for the decline of the overall gross profit rate of the company.

Product prices fell month-on-month and gross profit improved in the short term. According to Baichuan Yingfu and iFinD, the raw material prices of 23Q3 have risen and fallen. The average prices of sulfur, phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia are 1028.08 yuan/ton, 893.3 yuan/ton and 3148.14 yuan/ton respectively, with month-on-month comparison of +12.72%,-12.97%, 7. 06% respectively. The main product prices have declined slightly, wet industrial grade monoammonium phosphate average price of 5219.02 yuan/ton, chain-7.56%; feed grade calcium hydrogen phosphate average price of 2205.6 yuan/ton, chain-1.18%; compound fertilizer average price of 2892.44 yuan/ton, chain-12.06%. In the short term, we expect stable demand for raw material market, tight supply, stable price or slight upward exploration, which can provide cost support for product price; there is winter storage demand in the fourth quarter, and the gross profit of product end may be improved.

Continue to promote the construction of "Mineralization Integration", and inject mineral resources. According to the investor relations activity records disclosed by the Company, the Company has sufficient reserves of phosphate rock resources, Tianrui Mining's phosphate rock production capacity continues to climb, and actively promotes the resumption of production of Mianzhu Banpeng phosphate rock. In the future, the Company's phosphate rock self-sufficiency capacity will be significantly enhanced and the stability of production costs will be improved. In addition, Sichuan Development, the parent company of the controlling shareholder of the Company, and its shareholding subsidiaries can provide the Company with scarce mineral resources such as phosphate ore, lithium ore, lead zinc, iron ore and vanadium-titanium magnetite, enabling the Company to further improve the upstream resource allocation and deepen the advantage of "mineralization integration".

Establish a wholly-owned subsidiary to step up the promotion of new energy materials projects. According to the announcement of the company, the company takes new energy materials as the second growth curve, and plans 500,000 tons/year iron phosphate and 400,000 tons/year lithium iron phosphate projects accumulatively.

23Q3 The project under construction of the company is RMB 687 million yuan, an increase of 69.44% compared with the beginning of the year, mainly due to the increase in investment in lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate projects; the company's Dea project plans to build an annual output of 200,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate and 200,000 tons of iron phosphate. At present, the first phase of 20,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate plant has been completed and debugged. In order to guarantee all the land demand for subsequent projects, the company plans to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary Mianzhu Chuanfa Longpython in Xinshi Chemical Industrial Park of Mianzhu City, invest in the construction of lithium iron phosphate with an annual output of 100,000 tons and supporting production facilities, and further strengthen the industrial synergy effect among bases. In the future, the company will actively communicate with downstream customers and arrange product sales in advance.

Risk factors: downstream demand is less than expected; raw material price fluctuation risk; product price fluctuation risk; new project construction progress is less than expected.

Earnings forecasts, valuations and ratings: Considering that the price and gross profit of phosphorus chemical products decline, the company's profits are under short-term pressure, and the future prosperity is expected to gradually recover, we adjust the company's net profit forecast from 2023 to 2025 to 5.30/8.21/11.36 billion yuan.(The original forecast was 9.26/11.14/16.8 billion yuan), corresponding to EPS of 0.28/0.43/0.60 yuan respectively. We are optimistic about the company's mineral integration advantages and its leading position in the fine phosphate subdivision field of phosphorus chemical industry in the long run. The promotion of new energy materials projects will gradually become the company's second growth curve. With reference to the company's historical valuation center of 20xPE in the past three years, the company will be given a valuation of 20xPE in 2024. Lowered the company's target price for 2024 to 9 yuan (originally 12 yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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