Event
On October 26, 2023, the company announced that revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was 915 million yuan, + 18.46% compared with the same period last year, and the return / deduction of non-net profit was 1.92 million yuan, 3.59% compared with the same period last year. Revenue in the third quarter of 2023 was 327 million yuan, + 20.38% compared with the same period last year; return to the mother / deduction non-net profit of 0.82 million yuan, 4.09% compared with the same period last year. The performance is in line with expectations.
Comment
APIs and preparations are released rapidly, and the progress of the project under construction is in line with expectations. (1) the company's main business income is divided into product sales income, equity income and technical income. From January to September 2023, the company's product sales revenue was 776 million yuan, + 12.32% compared with the same period last year; of which, API product revenue was 674 million yuan, + 9.71% compared with the same period last year; preparation product revenue was 102 million yuan, + 33.34% over the same period last year, and preparation product revenue accounted for 13.15% of product sales revenue, an increase of 2.07%. The technical income was 82 million yuan, + 59.79% over the same period last year, and the income from equity sharing was 45 million yuan, an increase of 75.04% over the same period last year. (2) Project under construction: Taixing API and preparation production Base (Phase I) has completed the completion and acceptance of environmental protection, and the pre-trial production materials of the second phase of the project are ready to be completed and ready to be declared. The first phase of Borey (Shandong) API project has the conditions for trial production. In the future, with the gradual commissioning of the company's construction projects, it is expected to further contribute to the performance increment of the company.
APIs and preparations have been put on the market one after another, and innovative research and development is progressing smoothly. (1) domestic registration: 3Q23 year, brovudine raw material drug obtained chemical raw material drug application approval notice, inhaled budesonide suspension, Reganosen injection, Reganosheng API and other 9 products were declared in China; international registration: 3Q23 year, fondaparinux sodium injection submitted ANDA to the United States, iodopramine raw material drug submitted CEP to Europe. (2) at present, the process verification of tiotropium bromide inhalation spray, tiotropium bromide inhalation spray and salmeterol fluticasone inhalation spray have been completed, and the pilot-scale test of tiotropium bromide inhalation powder has been completed. BGC0228 for injection is in the clinical Ⅰ phase and is currently in 125mg/m? The dose expansion study was carried out at the dose level, and 13 subjects were enrolled in the dose expansion study, including cervical cancer, ovarian cancer, gastroesophageal cancer and so on. BGM0504 injection weight loss and type 2 diabetes treatment indications have been approved by Ⅱ phase clinical trials, and Ⅱ phase clinical trials for type 2 diabetes treatment and weight loss indications have begun to enter the group.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We maintain our profit forecast. We expect annual revenue of RMB 100 million in 2023-24-25, an increase of 18%, 13%, 17%, and a net profit of 2.5%, 2.9%, 3.5 million yuan, up 2%, 18%, 19%. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Product sales growth is not up to expectations, production capacity investment is lower than expected, innovative drug research and development is not as expected and other risks.