On October 26, the company released its third-quarter report of 2023. In the first three quarters, revenue reached 2.485 billion yuan, an increase of 190.93% over the same period last year, net profit of 57.2791 million yuan, an increase of 159.88% over the same period last year, and net profit of 52.1704 million yuan, an increase of 137.48% over the same period last year. In the context of the rapid recovery of business travel and accommodation business, the company's performance repair expectations have been periodically verified, and benefiting from the impact of the summer travel season, the recovery accelerated month-on-month in the third quarter, and we maintained our overweight rating.
Support the main points of rating
The business continued to repair rapidly, and the summer vacation helped to accelerate the growth of performance compared with the previous month. In the first three quarters of 23, the company achieved an operating income of 2.485 billion yuan, an increase of 190.93% over the same period last year; a net profit of 57.2791 million yuan, an increase of 159.88% over the same period last year; and a net profit of 52.1704 million yuan, an increase of 137.48% over the same period last year. Among them, the revenue in the third quarter was 1.234 billion yuan, the net profit of yoy+157.20%; was 29.9486 million yuan, and the net profit of yoy+601.59%; was 27.2791 million yuan, yoy+1191.58%. Under the background of the peak summer travel season and the gradual relaxation of outbound travel, the company's performance has accelerated month-on-month repair, and its performance recovery is expected to be fulfilled in stages. In addition, the company also had excellent performance in the past Golden week, with revenue and tours from the business travel industry increasing by 8 times and 2.4 times respectively over the same period last year, with more than 2000 starting teams. The overall revenue of the accommodation industry increased by nearly 50% compared with the same period in 2019, and nearly 40% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the revenue of Guangzhou Garden Hotel, China Hotel and Oriental Hotel increased by more than 90% over the same period in 2019, an increase of nearly 80% over the same period in 2019.
To meet the new needs of the market, the company timely follow up the promotion of new literature and travel products. As the first year of post-epidemic travel recovery, consumer demand is also changing, according to the company's Guang Tour Summer Holiday and National Day Golden week Market trend report, parent-child travel return, product differentiation, fine service, theme diversification, small group tours and other trends are gradually normalized. In response to market demand, the company is also taking advantage of its industrial chain to actively promote the supply and sales of related products in the summer. Guang Tour also achieved good sales performance at the Guangdong Tourism Expo in early October, with sales exceeding 20 million yuan in 3 days. The data of domestic tourism schools are better than those of the same period in 19 years, and the demand for many products is good.
When the resumption of outbound travel is still in progress, there will be more room for repair in the future. According to Flying Pig's summer trip in 2023 and KuaiBao during the 2023 Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, the turnover of outbound tourism commodities and summer international air ticket bookings increased several times in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, and the number of international air ticket bookings reached a peak during the National Day holiday. However, outbound travel has not yet been completely repaired. According to flight housekeeper data, the number of passenger flights on international routes in the latest week (10.16-10.22) is 51.3% of the 19-year level, and there is still much room for complete repair. However, the company's Guang Tour continues to be actively laid out. According to the Guang Tour information, during the Mid-Autumn Festival, the announcement of the list of countries before and after three batches of outbound group tours, the adjustment of visa policies and the increase in international routes are good. Europe, Australia and New Zealand, Southeast Asia, Middle East and Africa and other long-distance outbound travel sectors performed well. Some destination products such as Iceland, Switzerland, France, Italy, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Iran received good feedback from the market. Outbound travel business was the company's main source of income before the epidemic, and there is still plenty of room for repair.
Valuation
The company's business has a wide layout of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, and continues to adapt to the market demand for products to push through the old and bring forth the new, outbound travel repair is better than the month, the company's performance is expected to maintain a rapid repair trend. Combined with the company's current business recovery and the performance of the first three quarters, we adjust the forecast of EPS for 23-25 to 0.13, 0.37 and 0.42 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 64.5, 22.2 and 19.8 times. Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks faced by rating
The recovery of holiday travel is not as expected, the recovery of consumer confidence is insufficient, and market competition aggravates the risk.