Event: the company announced the third quarter of 2023 results, 23Q3 exceeded expectations, single-quarter revenue and profits hit a record high for the same period.
1) 2023Q1-Q3 realized revenue of 6.69 billion yuan (yoy+5.8%), net profit of 660 million yuan (yoy+28.4%) and net profit of 650 million yuan (yoy+28.5%), mainly due to strong demand for new energy and increased sales. 2) 2023Q3 realized revenue of 2.53 billion yuan (yoy+13.4%,qoq+16.3%), net profit of 250 million yuan (yoy+20.1%,qoq+2.7%), and non-return net profit of 250 million yuan (yoy+19.6%,qoq+1.3%).
We expect the sales volume of 23Q3 products to be 103000 tons, with a net profit of about 2426 yuan per ton. 1) assuming that the processing fee 23Q3 of the company remains the same as that of 22 years, and the raw material cost changes (decreases) in the same direction as the aluminum price, the net profit of the company's 23Q3 ton is estimated to be about 2426 yuan / ton, which is much higher than that of 2030 yuan / ton in 22 years. 2) the pricing model of the company's products is aluminum price + processing fee, the price of aluminum ingots is usually based on the average price of aluminum ingots within a period of time before shipment / order / settlement, and the price of aluminum ingots for export products refers to the LME aluminum price. According to wind,23Q3, the overseas aluminum price is 567 yuan / ton lower than the domestic aluminum price, and about 1 of the company's products are exported overseas, the export profit margin has been compressed, and the actual ton net profit level is higher after the aluminum price difference at home and abroad returns to normal.
Data center, energy storage liquid cooling provides incremental market space, the company has related product reserves. 1) the demand of AI volume data center increases rapidly, the power density of single cabinet increases rapidly, the discharge of energy storage battery can be expected when the lithium price falls, the trend of changing from air cooling to liquid cooling is obvious under the requirement of high heat dissipation efficiency, and there is a large prospect space for the products of liquid-cooled plate materials of the company. 2) the company actively develops heat dissipation materials in the field of energy storage represented by inflatable plate materials and large-size water-cooled plate materials, as well as heat dissipation materials in 5G base stations, big data centers and other fields.
The current production capacity is 34-350000 tons, and it is proposed to expand the production capacity of 150000 tons in Chongqing Phase II (for new energy vehicles). 1) Rapid expansion of production capacity: at present, the total production capacity of aluminum plate, strip and foil is 34-350000 tons (200000 tons in Chongqing and 14-150000 tons in Shanghai). In addition, the company plans to build 150000 tons in Chongqing Phase II. 2) cost reduction: Chongqing has lower energy costs and higher yield than Shanghai base, and the company has room for downside in processing costs per ton.
Maintain the buy rating. The company is a leader in automotive thermal management aluminum, and the shipping space has been opened after the new Chongqing base has been fully put into production, and the industry pattern is stable, and the company's product yield, cost control ability and profitability are in the lead of its peers. The company already has automotive, new energy vehicles, energy storage, data center-related liquid-cooled materials products, will fully benefit the demand volume of related industries. To maintain the original profit forecast, the company is expected to return to the mother of the net profit of 10.0 pound 1.30 billion yuan in 23-25, corresponding to PE is 16-12-11 times, maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips: lower product processing fees; lower-than-expected base construction in Chongqing; international trade frictions