2023Q3 performance is under pressure. The company's 2023Q3 realized revenue of 12.083 billion yuan, down 18.7% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 365 million yuan, up 15.7% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 240 million yuan, up 1.3% from the same period last year. 2023Q3 gross profit margin 14.36%, month-on-month decline in 0.8pcts.
The technical accumulation of electric vehicle battery business continues to strengthen. (1) in terms of product development, the company adheres to the strategy of "focus + differentiation". The power battery focuses on square aluminum shell battery and distributes power large cylindrical battery at the same time, covering the two major application markets of BEV, PHEV/EREV power and energy storage. At the same time, in addition to passenger cars, power batteries cover commercial vehicles, ships and so on. (2) in terms of technology, the company continues to increase research and development in advanced technology and system integration solutions, with integration solutions such as CTP, CTB and CTC to meet the diversified needs of end customers. 1) aiming at the BEV market, the company has launched a "flash charge" battery, which can be adapted to 800V high voltage and 400V atmospheric pressure system to achieve comprehensive fast charging and solve users' anxiety about safety, mileage and high cost of charging time CK Hutchison. Super fast-charging 4C battery products have been mass-produced in 23Q1. The development of "flash charge" battery in R & D 4C ~ 6C is progressing smoothly, and the whole scene lasts for 800 miles in 10 minutes. 2) for the EREV and PHEV markets, the company's layout covers 100-200KM plug-in battery products. The company's EREV products are oriented to the high-end market and achieve high security on the basis of long battery life and high performance. 3) for the electric vehicle operation market, the company provides long-life lithium iron phosphate battery solutions, which greatly broaden the application scene and application boundaries, and enhance customer experience.
Electric vehicle battery business customers continue to expand. The company has successively established cooperative relations with many well-known automobile manufacturers at home and abroad, the main customers are domestic and foreign head car companies and emerging new car manufacturing forces, domestic customers include Geely, Dongfeng, Dongfeng Liuqi, ideal and so on. Overseas customers include Renault, Nissan and so on. In addition, the company has also been appointed by Volvo, Volkswagen, Guangzhou Automobile, SAIC and other major customers.
The energy storage battery business continues to be laid out. The company's energy storage battery layout covers the application scenarios of power grid energy storage, home energy storage and data center power storage. For power grid energy storage, the company has achieved mass production of 280Ah batteries. The 306Ah/314Ah battery being developed by the company will further optimize energy density, energy efficiency and cost, and is progressing smoothly.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: in view of the fact that the downstream prosperity of the company's electric cars, smartphones and laptops has yet to be restored, we have lowered the company's 23-24 net profit forecast to 1.669 trillion yuan (the reduction ratio is 55.6% and47.3%). The new 25-year net profit is forecast to be 2.283 billion yuan. We are optimistic about the recovery of the company's main business and the long-term development of electric vehicle batteries, energy storage batteries and other businesses, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected risk, new product development progress is less than expected risk, customer introduction progress is less than expected risk.