Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 512 million yuan, + 48.24% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 21 million yuan, + 62.8% compared with the same period last year. In the third quarter, the company achieved an operating income of 160 million yuan, + 21.32% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of 8 million yuan, + 22.82% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
The results increased steadily in the third quarter, and newly signed orders continued to grow. 23Q3, the company's performance growth is mainly due to the year-on-year increase in orders and steady growth in sales of products. As of 23H1, the main products of the company's newly signed orders are slag energy-saving and environmental protection treatment system, flue gas waste heat recovery system, full-load denitrification system and steel slag energy-saving and environmental protection treatment system. According to statistics, 23M9 updated the release of 50 thermal power projects, it is expected that in the context of accelerated thermal power investment, the company's new orders will continue to increase.
The new products of steel slag accord with ultra-low emission and have a broad market prospect. The company has perfect product structure, multi-dimensional business development, retrofit of mature products in thermal power field, cross-domain expansion and application, launch of energy-saving and environmental protection treatment system for steel slag, and enrich the company's product line. at present, the new contract value of steel slag for 23 years is 104 million. As of 23H1, the cumulative investment in ultra-low emission transformation of the domestic steel industry has exceeded 200 billion yuan, and the ultra-low emission of domestic steel enterprises is the general trend, which is of great significance for raising the threshold of industry entry and promoting the orderly development of the industry. The new steel slag product technology of the company is in line with the national ultra-low emission policy on iron and steel mills and metallurgical industry, and the market prospect is broad.
Actively layout the hydrogen energy business, the first project uses fishing and light complementary. 23M9, the company signed a cooperation agreement to invest in the construction of supporting hydrogen production projects, with an investment of 549 million yuan. The project, which covers a total area of about 1800 mu, adopts fishing-light complementary mode of comprehensive development, with the proposed construction scale of AC side installed capacity 90MW, equipped with 20MW hydrogen production equipment, which is planned to be completed and connected to the grid with full capacity before December 15, 2004, so as to optimize the company's industrial layout and is expected to develop with high quality in the hydrogen energy industry chain.
Profit forecast: we forecast that the operating income of the company from 2023 to 2025 will be 10.04,13.86 and 1.878 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.12,1.73 and 249 million yuan respectively. It is estimated that the EPS from 2023 to 2025 is 0.91,1.40,2.02 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 18.37,11.20,8.25 times respectively. Combined with the situation of the company and comparable companies, the company will be valued at 26 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 23.63 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the construction scale of thermal power investment is lower than expected; the risk that the policy is lower than expected; the income and operating performance have seasonal risks; the public information used in the research report may lag behind or not updated in a timely manner.