23Q3 achieved a profit of 62 million yuan, + 29% compared with the same period last year, and + 18% compared with the same period last year. Revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was 929 million yuan, + 12% year-on-year, and net profit was 179 million yuan, + 40% year-on-year. Of which 23Q3 achieved revenue of 314 million yuan, year-on-year-0.18%, month-on-month + 1.63%; return to the mother net profit of 62 million yuan, year-on-year + 29%, month-on-month + 18%.
We maintain the profit forecast and estimate that the company's annual return net profit in 2023-24-25 will be 2.47 PE 361 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the corresponding PE 0.70 Wind 1.32 yuan respectively. With reference to the same expectation of 21 times of the company's Wind in 2023, considering the strong renewal ability of the company's new products and the fact that the non-plague vaccine is expected to be the first to be sold on the market, we give the company 40 times PE in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 28 yuan. Maintain a "buy" rating.
From the perspective of income, the company's revenue from pig vaccines, poultry vaccines and antibodies, and chemical drugs recorded year-on-year growth of 9%, 10% and 20% respectively in the first three quarters of 2023, with 23Q3 changes of about-3.9%, 9.6% and-5.3% respectively. We believe that the sales growth in the first three quarters may be mainly due to the fact that the company's management layer has further deepened the reform of the marketing management system and strengthened technical services, ensuring the continuous rise in the proportion of sales of "major customers" and the steady growth of sales of "large items", thus leading the counter-trend growth of overall sales. The decline in sales of 23Q3 pig vaccines and chemicals may be mainly due to the year-on-year decline in pig prices, especially sow prices until the deep loss range, the significant decline in immunization and medication enthusiasm of pig farmers, and the year-on-year growth of poultry vaccines and antibodies, or mainly benefit from the gradual commissioning of the company's production capacity in Nanjing. From the perspective of profitability, affected by the pressure of downstream farming, 23Q3's gross profit margin fell 2.94pct compared with the same period last year, but the company continued to reduce fees to increase efficiency so that the net profit margin still increased 2.92pct compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the company continued to lay out the pet section and completed the equity acquisition of Leju Health and Hip Pop during the reporting period.
The research and development of new products continues to advance, and the new capacity will be put into operation soon.
The live pseudorabies vaccine independently developed by the company is expected to become the first approved live vaccine of swine pseudorabies epidemic strain, and many products, such as the new tributary gland-reducing inactivated vaccine for poultry, are currently in the stage of registration of new veterinary drugs. it is expected to bring new increments for the company. At the same time, the African Classical Swine Fever subunit Vaccine Project jointly developed by the company and the Blue Research Institute is undergoing emergency evaluation and evaluation, and is expected to be the first to be listed in mid-2024, and the production and sales of non-plague vaccines may bring significant expansion of the pig vaccine market. it is expected to lead to a significant increase in the company's revenue and profits. At the same time, the company's three highly pathogenic bird flu vaccine production lines are expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2023, and the bottleneck of highly pathogenic bird flu vaccine production capacity is expected to be solved.
Target price 28 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating
We estimate that the company's annual homing net profit in 2023-24-25 will be 247,361 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.32 yuan and a target price of 28 yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the recovery of pig stocks is not as expected, the promotion of market-oriented sales is not as expected, the competition in the animal vaccine market is intensified, and the fluctuation of pig prices strongly affects the product demand.