The profitability exceeded expectations, and the net profit of returning home decreased month-on-month due to the litigation.
Oriental Sunrise released three quarterly reports in 2023, the company 2023Q1-3 achieved revenue of 28.02 billion yuan, yoy+33.3%, achieved a net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, yoy+71.2%. Realize deduction of non-return net profit of 1.571 billion yuan, yoy+104.1%. Among them, 2023Q3 realized revenue of 10.41 billion yuan, yoy+23.8%,QOQ-3.9%, realized net profit of 418 million yuan, yoy+72.3%,QOQ-24%, realized deduction of non-return net profit of 733 million yuan, yoy+149.1%,QOQ+29%. 2023Q3 gross profit margin and net profit margin are 17.4% and 4%, respectively, month-on-month + 3.3/-1.1pct. The sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 1.5%, 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.7%, and + 0.2/+0.4/-1.0/+4.0pct, respectively. The significant increase in the company's 2023Q3 gross profit margin is expected to be due to an increase in the share of its export components to the United States. Considering the decline in the sales unit price of the company's components and energy storage system, we downgrade the company's profit forecast for 2023-2025. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 will be 18.90 shock 22.26 billion yuan (formerly 22.13 shock 22.94 yuan / 3.029 billion yuan), EPS 1.66 shock 1.95 shock 2.45 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE 10.5,8.9 and 7.1 times, respectively. Consider its leading position of heterojunction components and the leading edge of overseas energy storage market, maintain the "buy" rating.
The profitability of component business has increased rapidly, the first-mover advantage of heterojunction technology has significantly expanded production and landing, and the scale of component sales has continued to expand. Thanks to the expansion of the company's component production capacity, the increase in the scale of self-powered cells and the stabilization of prices in the upstream photovoltaic supply chain, the company's 2023Q1-3 photovoltaic module sales have increased and its profitability has continued to improve. In terms of heterojunction batteries, the company has promoted the large-scale mass production of this series of heterojunction batteries and components through the first mass production of its own patented 0BB battery technology, 210 ultra-thin silicon wafer technology, pure silver consumption < 10mg/W and stress-free series connection technology.
Affected by the litigation, the non-recurrent profit and loss affected the company's net profit of 320 million yuan. The company's non-operating expenses for the current period were 519 million yuan, mainly due to the fact that the company received FOCUS FUTURA HOLDING PARTICIPA??ES S.A. From the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce during the reporting period. As a result of the award of the contract dispute, the award company compensated FOCUS for its direct loss of US $57.1243 million, interest of US $9.4232 million (calculated up to September 30, 2023), lawyers' fees and arbitration fees of US $5.17 million, totaling US $71.7175 million.
Risk hint: the progress of heterojunction production is not as expected, and the competition in the energy storage industry is intensified.