Main points of announcement: the company disclosed that the year-to-date cumulative revenue was 19.568 billion yuan, + 12.42% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 2.277 billion yuan, + 244.64%, and 1.404 billion yuan, + 112.59%, respectively. 2023Q3 achieved revenue of 6.099 billion yuan in a single quarter, compared with the same period of last quarter, with a net profit of 381 million yuan, 29.1%, 73.1%, 368 million yuan and 33.8%, respectively. Q3 homing net profit is at the median level of performance forecast, which is basically in line with our expectations.
Domestic business has recovered steadily, while overseas operations have improved as a whole. Q3 has cumulatively achieved sales of 42869 sets of vehicles of various types, with a month-on-month ratio of + 15.8%, the highest in a single quarter since 2022. The bicycle price is 142300 yuan in total revenue,-23.5% month-on-month. The core of the obvious decline in bicycle prices is that the shortage of supply chain in the North American semi-trailer market has alleviated, the supply and demand of semi-trailers has returned to normal, and the unit price has returned to normal. Q3 gross profit margin reached 17.61%, compared with the same period of last year + 3.2/-2.6pct. The year-on-year increase was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in overseas businesses such as North America / Europe and emerging markets. The month-on-month decline was mainly due to the decline in unit price after the normal supply and demand of North American semi-trailers returned to normal. Q3 company sales management research expense rate is 2.78% 0.3/-0.3/+0.5pct 4.74% 1.60%, respectively + 0.3/+0.6/+0.3pct, month-on-month-0.3/-0.3/+0.5pct, month-on-month basically the same, year-on-year promotion is mainly due to the company to deepen the global business network system, the implementation of star chain plan to increase related costs, and continue to promote new energy innovation technology and product development Promote the landing of the solution and increase the rate of R & D expenditure compared with the same period last year. Financial expense rate-0.26%, month on month + 0.5pct. In the bicycle net profit dimension, Q3 achieves 8900 yuan and deducts non-post-bike net profit of 8600 yuan, which is-76.8% and 42.9% respectively compared with the previous month.
Looking to the future, driven by the star chain plan, global market development and new energy integration are linked to the transformation and drive, opening up long-term growth space. 1) persistent inflation in the United States, organic in crisis, the company deepens the layout of high-end production lines, steadily improves the profit base, and expands new business channels and development; 2) the construction and development of domestic semi-trailers, the new organization of the star chain plan is formed, and the LTP production line is launched to increase market share, sales and profits in an all-round way 3) the platform for the new energy source to hang the train and evolve the traditional fuel head-to-head solution will soon be launched to speed up the process of new energy for commercial vehicles; 4) the European market will reduce costs and increase efficiency, steady development, strong demand in emerging markets, and good gross profit performance. continue to bring new momentum for development.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company's profit forecast for 2023 to 2025, with a net profit of RMB 2.67 trillion, compared with the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of + 139%, 12%, 38%, 1.32, 1.17, and 1.62, respectively, corresponding to the valuation of PE in 8-9-7, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Risk hints: the recovery of the domestic logistics industry is less than expected; overseas economic fluctuations are higher than expected.